Jesse Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Worst as in snowiest and coldest. Not as in a warm snowless winter.Sometimes the worst are the nicest. And sometimes the best are the worst. The best may not even be very nice. Subjective, value laden terminology can get confusing quickly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Whether this winter meets official El Niño criteria or falls just short is irrelevant, IMO. The boundary conditions will be the same (warm WPAC/dateline, cooler EPAC, +PMM, cool Indo-Pacific/E-IO domain, +QBO @ 50mb with descending easterly shear above, low solar). The question is all in the timing/amplitude of the intraseasonal cycle/nonlinear dynamics that can affect important system features such as PV strength/states of wave breaking/etc, which in turn can ignite feedback loops/phase changes or terminate pre-existing ones. We will see. I’ve actually been trying to learn about the pacific weather patterns over the last year. I definitely don’t know as much as some of you but there lots of information that I’ve learned from your and other people’s posts since I’ve been logging in here the last year. I understand a few of the acronyms you use now but not alot of it. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Lovely day... except for the mess our cedar made. Always happens during the first real wind of the fall. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 At least 3" of snow at Washington Pass. Fantastic drive along US 20. Should pick up another couple inches overnight as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Going to be chilly for the Oregon State game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Lovely day... except for the mess our cedar made. Always happens during the first real wind of the fall. BAD cedar! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Going up to the pass. ~4000 feet 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Well, we both have 1985/86 included. Not sure whether that’s a reason to be confident or to rip up the script and start over. We seem to have a good consensus on 1985. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Already had big flakes falling here in Culver...2700' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 I've always dreamed of getting snow like they did over 100 years ago. I think our winters will get colder and snowier in the decades to come. We've already started to see the change over these past few winters. There will still be duds every now and then but cold and snowy winters will be the norm. The funny thing is the duds in the 19th century were every bit as bad as the duds now. There were many more to good to great winters though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Nice and crisp today with puffy clouds moving out of the north and N breezes at the surface. The temp has been stuck around 56 to 57 for a while now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 56 and mostly sunny in Tacoma. Really nice out little breezy out of the north. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Shorts day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Looks like PDX already snuck up to 60 today. Kind of a shame, was thinking a high in the 50s was a lock. Maybe tomorrow. High of 58 here so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Mission ridge is already quite snowy. The WRF shows them getting nuked over the next 24 to 36 hours. Should be utterly historic for that location. https://www.missionridge.com/webcams Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 The ECMWF is on board for another shot of cool continental air early in week two. This is looking very interesting for sure. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 C3900022-FBB5-4317-85BB-070372C669B9.jpeg Portland sux. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 I have one son at the Huskies game in 60-degree sunshine trolling the other son in 40-degree rain in Pullman on our group snapchat. I told my Husky son that I hope the Huskies don't Coug it! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted September 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Portland sux. That's apparent after last winter But seriously though, I really hate the fact that they use the airport location sometimes. A double-edged sword, because it's hardly what is representative of a large part of the metro (especially in snowstorms). Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Some very dry air moving into the B.C. south coast now. White Rock is at 65F but the dew point is all the way down to 27F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Some very dry air moving into the B.C. south coast now. White Rock is at 65F but the dew point is all the way down to 27F Pretty typical that drier air is forcing higher surface temps. That should be mitigated considerably over the next few days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 The temp quickly fell back to 53 when a little bit of convective activity kicked in. Unquestionably a very cool air mass. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Nice looking cell headed for Portland area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Nice looking cell headed for Portland area.Should keep us from getting too much above 70. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Some rain here now... ECMWF showed this happening this afternoon for the last several runs. Tomorrow afternoon stays dry though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Just had some very loud thunder here. Down to 54 degrees. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Just had some very loud thunder here. Down to 54 degrees. Seattle gets thunder yesterday, Portland today nice. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 The temp quickly fell back to 53 when a little bit of convective activity kicked in. Unquestionably a very cool air mass. Was pretty cold today up in the mountains. Was snowing down as low as 3800-4000’ on my way home. Looks like rain is moving in the reverse direction it normally does across the sound, NE to SW. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 I miss this. https://mobile.twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1177924825836212224 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted September 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Decently intense cell moving into E. Portland, looks like. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 I like a 1919-20 analog. Similar ENSO and the 100 year thing is pretty hard to ignore. Also got kinda cold in late September that year.Looks like PDX had 19" that winter, not bad. 1916-17 had 19.6" of snow and the 100 year cycle correlated pretty well to 2016-17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Looks like PDX had 19" that winter, not bad. 1916-17 had 19.6" of snow and the 100 year cycle correlated pretty well to 2016-17. The arctic blast of December 1919 is pretty hard to top. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted September 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 https://twitter.com/ChristopOConnor/status/1178083889056645120 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Looks like a semi convective blob of moisture is headed my way. Hope to hear a clap or two. Pdx looks to be getting some interesting weather shortly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Big O Thunderstorm SE Portland 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted September 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Seeing some Twitter comments talking about some strong winds with the cell parked over E. Portland right now. Windy and very dark over here. 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 28, 2019 Report Share Posted September 28, 2019 Small hail and heavy rain.....nice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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