September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Up to 58F now with SW winds.  Probly the warmest spot in the western lowlands.

 

N winds have set in for good up here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[BLI snowman]

Whenever I read USFS 1919 by Norman Maclean and he tells the tale of an early snow storm in the Bitterroot Mountains, I think about what happened a few months later...

 

That whole fall was just really impressive. The late October 1919 cold spell is never discussed on here but it actually brought the earliest flakes on record to many areas west of the Cascades on 10/25.

[Canadian guy]

I think 96' is extremely overrated. It wasn't even the best winter of the 90s.

If you lived north of Seattle you would be thinking otherwise.

[Front Ranger]

If you lived north of Seattle you would be thinking otherwise.

He was actually talking about 1995-96.

[Canadian guy]

He was actually talking about 1995-96.

Ah I see...agreed then. I would rank 90-91, 92-93, 96-97 ahead of 95-96

[BLI snowman]

As we've talked about before that 1919 through 1937 period was pretty ridiculous.  Almost every winter had something noteworthy in the way of cold and or snow.  Some were very Portland centric, but 1928-29 was fantastic for the Puget Sound region.  All in all every area got hit hard several times in that run.

 

What's interesting is that the bad winters in that stretch were phenomenally bad as well. 1925-26 was perhaps the only winter on record that had zero lowland snow events anywhere west of the Cascades, from Abbotsford on down. 

 

And 1933-34 was an infamously torchy winter (and following spring) with zero freezes in downtown Portland for the entire season.

[Jesse]

What's interesting is that the bad winters in that stretch were phenomenally bad as well. 1925-26 was perhaps the only winter on record that had zero lowland snow events anywhere west of the Cascades, from Abbotsford on down. 

 

And 1933-34 was an infamously torchy winter (and following spring) with zero freezes in downtown Portland for the entire season.

The atmosphere found a way to consolidate all the crap into two bad seasons rather than spreading it out. Efficient.

[ShawniganLake]

I know you got pounded in 1970-71 too.

I think 70-71 is the snowiest on record for YVR

[TacomaWaWx]

Only 50 degrees here at 1pm. 45 was our coldest morning low since May 13th. Up to 2.84” for the month. Was really cool to head to up to chinook pass this morning. Saw some light snow flurries while up there, snow line started at about 4500’ and was roughly 1” deep at the top of the pass.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Winds have shifted to westerly now. Upper 50s at EUG.

[BLI snowman]

The atmosphere found a way to consolidate all the crap into two bad seasons rather than spreading it out. Efficient.

 

1930-31 was a gigantic pile of sh*t as well (though there was some November snow up north and some slop in late March).

 

Six of the seven winters between 1926-33 featured major, prolonged arctic airmasses and lowland snow events.

[Requiem]

I wonder if we’ll ever get another snowstorm like January 9th, 1980, here in the Portland area. 40+ inches in 24-hours in the Gorge, 15+ in parts of the metro area over a three-day period— it was crazy. To see something like that would be a dream come true!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And just shifted to northerly winds.  We are in now too!

[TT-SEA]

Looks gorgeous at Husky stadium right now for UW-USC. A few puffy clouds and lots of sun. Perfect football weather... sweatshirts and sunshine.

 

Snow before November sucks.

 

[Phil]

FWIW, here’s the SSTA profile for the analog years I’m looking at, versus present conditions:

 

[Phil]

Not a “perfect” match by any means, especially given the variance within the analog set and issues across the NATL, but that can be ironed out in closing.

 

What was important was getting the Indo-Pacific/IO precursors to the ENSO/Hadley-Walker progression accurate, and possibly weighting to QBO/PMM. Because the -PMM/-PDO years begin to diverge with respect to forcing over the Indo-Pacific/Dateline area towards November/December and become useless in January/February.

[FroYoBro]

It is currently moderately cool outside so I think this winter is going to be ******* insane. 

[Front Ranger]

Not a “perfect” match by any means, especially given the variance within the analog set and issues across the NATL, but that can be ironed out in closing.

 

The main issue I see with this is that's for Oct-Mar... probably not gonna have static ssta for the next 5 months.

[Phil]

And while this is extremely rudimentary/preliminary, the average of the analog set points to western troughing in January this year at the 500mb level. So maybe the notorious January curse finally gets broken?

 

Which would (coincidently?) line up with this year’s (subseasonal) periodicity of AAM transport..indicating another cold pattern/GOA anticyclone in mid/late January after the current one wraps up.

 

From Sep-Mar:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

It is currently moderately cool outside so I think this winter is going to be f***** insane.

Some people think this will be the worst of the 21st century some people weak El Niño who really knows. I’d like to say we’re about to go into a straight 1971-1972 winter but then you also have years like 1991-1992 (if I’m not mistaken) where early cold and snow hit in October and then nothing followed. I know there’s a lot more to the forecasts wether it was an El Niño, La Niña or neutral. Either way I feel like it’ll be atleast an average winter for everyone I think we will see some snow. This pattern early in the fall has been an encouraging sign.

[Blizzard777]

I think 96' is extremely overrated. It wasn't even the best winter of the 90s.

96 was just plain active although I was living in Troutdale at the time.

It was VHS worthy!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Fraser outflow started in late morning, and is now really raging in Bellingham.

[Phil]

The main issue I see with this is that's for Oct-Mar... probably not gonna have static ssta for the next 5 months.

Of course they won’t be static. But they’ve been relatively stable for several months now..the current SSTAs are roughly in line with the regime that has been present all summer (contrary to some of the rhetoric we see every year, of course).

 

Since July 1st:

 

 

Versus:

 

[Phil]

If you believe there will *now* be a move to a new background state of ocean-atmosphere circulation, that’s something else. If so, I’d be intrigued to hear reasoning as to why that would be the case at this moment in time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Grateful the board is getting more active. Once Rob comes back things really get rolling.

[Blizzard777]

N winds have set in for good up here.

One benefit of the North winds here my rooftop is kept safe from deciduous leaves fallout!

[Phil]

Just to prove the irrelevance of the “blob”, given the ongoing pattern, let’s compare SSTAs in 2019 vs 2018.

 

This may shock the blob-worshipping community, but yes, the blob (and +PMM/+PDO) are both much stronger right now versus 2018 at this time.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I’ve never eaten Milk Duds in my life...

 

Gummy worms are my favorite.

[Phil]

Just to prove the irrelevance of the “blob”, given the ongoing pattern, let’s compare SSTAs in 2019 vs 2018.

 

This may shock the blob-worshipping community, but yes, the blob (and +PMM/+PDO) are both much stronger right now versus 2018 at this time.

 

But alas, people never learn. They continue to stare at those pretty-looking colors on their computer screens, and treat those frigid NPAC SSTs as if they’re more important than those boiling hot waters in the IO/Indo-Pacific. In reality those blue colors near Indonesia are still analogous to the surface of the Sun versus those red colors in the GOA, and are located in a much more important geographical domain for the inception of large scale dynamic processes that reverberate globally.

[Omegaraptor]

Some people think this will be the worst of the 21st century some people weak El Niño who really knows. I’d like to say we’re about to go into a straight 1971-1972 winter but then you also have years like 1991-1992 (if I’m not mistaken) where early cold and snow hit in October and then nothing followed. I know there’s a lot more to the forecasts wether it was an El Niño, La Niña or neutral. Either way I feel like it’ll be atleast an average winter for everyone I think we will see some snow. This pattern early in the fall has been an encouraging sign.

Worst of the 21st? Pretty hard to do worse than 00-01, 02-03, 04-05, or 14-15.

[Phil]

Gummy worms are my favorite.

Reese’s are mine, actually. Just another reason I’d rather be out West right now.

 

And what the hell are Swedish Fish?

[GHweatherChris]

Reese’s are mine, actually. Just another reason I’d rather be out West right now.

 

And what the hell are Swedish Fish?

Swedish fish are delicious, was my fave penny candy as a kid before Sour Patch Kids came out.

[GHweatherChris]

[Phil]

Some people think this will be the worst of the 21st century some people weak El Niño who really knows. I’d like to say we’re about to go into a straight 1971-1972 winter but then you also have years like 1991-1992 (if I’m not mistaken) where early cold and snow hit in October and then nothing followed. I know there’s a lot more to the forecasts wether it was an El Niño, La Niña or neutral. Either way I feel like it’ll be atleast an average winter for everyone I think we will see some snow. This pattern early in the fall has been an encouraging sign.

Whether this winter meets official El Niño criteria or falls just short is irrelevant, IMO. The boundary conditions will be the same (warm WPAC/dateline, cooler EPAC, +PMM, cool Indo-Pacific/E-IO domain, +QBO @ 50mb with descending easterly shear above, low solar).

 

The question is all in the timing/amplitude of the intraseasonal cycle/nonlinear dynamics that can affect important system features such as PV strength/states of wave breaking/etc, which in turn can ignite feedback loops/phase changes or terminate pre-existing ones.

[Blizzard777]

Reese’s are mine, actually. Just another reason I’d rather be out West right now.

And what the hell are Swedish Fish?

Reese’s all the Way !

Sad, yet another who has not enjoyed this wonderful healthy snack with assorted dyes

They really do have a good flavor to them....my movie go to snack

[Phil]

If we're going with composite blends, I like 1977-78, 1985-86, 1996-97, 2008-09, and 2009-10.

Well, we both have 1985/86 included.

 

Not sure whether that’s a reason to be confident or to rip up the script and start over.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It appears this back to back deep minimum will surpass anything since the Dalton Minimum. This is looking slightly more impressive overall than the 3 cycle wannbe grand minimum in the 1879 through 1914 period.

I've always dreamed of getting snow like they did over 100 years ago. I think our winters will get colder and snowier in the decades to come. We've already started to see the change over these past few winters. There will still be duds every now and then but cold and snowy winters will be the norm.

[TacomaWaWx]

Worst of the 21st? Pretty hard to do worse than 00-01, 02-03, 04-05, or 14-15.

Worst as in snowiest and coldest. Not as in a warm snowless winter.

[Omegaraptor]

Worst as in snowiest and coldest. Not as in a warm snowless winter.

Oh. Lol.