September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[jakeinthevalley]

I think there were places in the North Oregon cascades that had sticking snow well below 3k'

[Jesse]

More mild nights

 

Looks great for freaks who want to spend the rest of their lives drowning in cold rain.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, this sucks. This morning we only got down to 42, which is actually average for the date (First night of the month that was not above average!), guess we'll have to do with a 20-25 degree below average high!

 

That post was related to the fact that I live in his head... and he reads everything I post despite claiming he does not!

 

And of course my post was about about a week ago and the models look a little different in that range now.   My comment was just observation when looking at a couple frames of one run 10 days out that looked it was setting up to be a southerly flow pattern.    That post sure stuck with him... like everything else I say.     

 

Even so... there will probably be some mild nights.

[TT-SEA]

Looks great for freaks who want to spend the rest of their lives drowning in cold rain.

 

 

You complain endlessly about unusually dry patterns... but it appears that we are not even allowed to discuss unusually wet patterns when they are actually happening.   At least according to you.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You complain endlessly about unusually dry patterns... but it appears that we are not even allowed to discuss unusually wet patterns when they are actually happening.   At least according to you.    

 

I will say the overall pattern the next two weeks, though cool, does not look overly wet. 

[TT-SEA]

I will say the overall pattern the next two weeks, though cool, does not look overly wet.

 

Regardless... when its unusually wet there will be posts about the unusually wet weather.

[snow_wizard]

Some decent snowfall at Government Camp this morning. One of the earliest snows I can ever remember seeing up there, and close to one of their earliest snowfalls on record. Earliest ever was September 23, 1984, at least according to Mark’s blog.

 

F1900BA0-7322-4D02-991B-678F85C0C017.png

 

Luckily we managed to finish up data collection on Adams yesterday before things got too dicey. Snow was falling down to 4,000 and lower by the time we left in the late afternoon.

 

1985 had a major snowfall in the Central WA Cascades.  Not sure if that was a big deal further south though.  The mid 1980s is pretty good company to be if you want a great winter.  Mission Ridge will be interesting to watch over the next 36 hours.  The WFR indicates highly enhanced snowfall on the northern half of the Wenatchee Mountains due to major orographic lift and a well placed deformation band.  Could be over 2 feet.  All in all I'm hard pressed to think of any major cold event this early that didn't lead to a major cold wave in the late October to late December time frame.  Some years there were a couple in that time frame.

[Jesse]

I will say the overall pattern the next two weeks, though cool, does not look overly wet.

Pretty much perfect for this time of year.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks wintery at Strawberry Pass this morning (4700 feet asl):

 

[Omegaraptor]

The 50°F air this morning feels wonderful.

 

Also, it’s snowing in Spokane. Fourth time on record in September, with two of them being traces.

[ShawniganLake]

Some drier air starting to filter in here now. Victoria YYJ is at 57F but the dew point has dropped to 39F

[Jesse]

1985 had a major snowfall in the Central WA Cascades. Not sure if that was a big deal further south though. The mid 1980s is pretty good company to be if you want a great winter. Mission Ridge will be interesting to watch over the next 36 hours. The WFR indicates highly enhanced snowfall on the northern half of the Wenatchee Mountains due to major orographic lift and a well placed deformation band. Could be over 2 feet. All in all I'm hard pressed to think of any major cold event this early that didn't lead to a major cold wave in the late October to late December time frame. Some years there were a couple in that time frame.

I don’t know how September 1985 was in the Cascades down here. I think the snow level may have stayed above Government Camp.

 

I will agree that it’s fantastic to see a pattern like this developing so early, though. Probably numerous early season snow and cold record yet to be approached or broken. The most impressive parts of this event for snow on the east side and overnight lows is still to come.

[TT-SEA]

Some drier air starting to filter in here now. Victoria YYJ is at 57F but the dew point has dropped to 39F

 

Bellingham has 52/38 with a north wind at 16.

[snow_wizard]

Good grief!  4 major troughs over the next 15 days depoicted on the 12z GFS.  Could be looking at a nippy October.  SSTs have already undergone major changes over the NE Pacific with considerable warming over the NW and NC Pacific and significant cooling along the West Coast.  With persistent high pressure being progged over the GOA and Aleutians over the next two weeks West Coast SSTs should plunge.  This thing is really taking shape now.

 

Last evening was quite impressive as cold air blew in on strong west winds here.  A totally different feel than has dominated this entire month up until now.  Looks like Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will all have frost and many locations dropping to freezing.

[Jesse]

D**n. Impressive stuff.

Very intriguing high/low frequency exchanges ongoing right now re: wavetrains/seasonality given the background state present. Didn’t really see it evolving this way. Looks more like a 19th century pattern..has registered as neutral/+PNA just like many of those frigid PNW years did at the end of the LIA, thanks to the orientation of the wavestations relative to the EOF for the modern PNA index, but in reality it’s just a different pattern throwing off the calculation.

Soooo....winter uncancel?

[Jesse]

Last evening was quite impressive as cold air blew in on strong west winds here. A totally different feel than has dominated this entire month up until now. Looks like Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will all have frost and many locations dropping to freezing.

We had a period of gusty north winds following a band of moderate showers late yesterday evening. Temperature went from the upper 50s when I got home to upper 40s by the time I went to bed a few hours later.

[snow_wizard]

I don’t know how September 1985 was in the Cascades down here. I think the snow level may have stayed above Government Camp.

 

I will agree that it’s fantastic to see a pattern like this developing so early, though. Probably numerous early snow and cold record yet to be approached or fall. The most impressive parts of this event for snow on the east side and overnight lows is still to come.

 

No way it's a coincidence the mid 1980s were at solar min.  I am really excited about the implications of this.  If high solar activity / lag effect from that has been our problem since 1975 we could be in for some serious fun going forward.  No doubt the last solar minimum started to get things going the right way, but this one being just as low starts to get a cumulative effect going.

[Front Ranger]

This pattern is sort of the early season version of what happened in June 2008.

[snow_wizard]

We had a period of gusty north winds following a band of moderate showers late yesterday evening. Temperature went from the upper 50s when I got home to upper 40s by the time I went to bed a few hours later.

 

Probably the only time I've seen our first low of 45 or lower coming on a cloudy night.  Thicknesses drop to 534 tonight at both SEA and PDX.  Getting that with increasingly dry continental air seeping in is incredibly rare this time of year.

[snow_wizard]

This pattern is sort of the early season version of what happened in June 2008.

 

I still remember that.  It dropped to 42 by midnight with rain falling.  That one blew me away.  This kind of thing is almost always associated with great winters here.

[Jesse]

The 50°F air this morning feels wonderful.

Also, it’s snowing in Spokane. Fourth time on record in September, with two of them being traces.

The obs in Spokane this morning are pretty crazy.

 

They went from 43 degree rain at 6am to 34 degrees with moderate snow and NNE winds gusting close to 30mph by 10am. I would imagine that kind of surface cold pushing in so strongly is very rare for late September.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KGEG&num=25&raw=0&banner=off

[snow_wizard]

I imagine only 1972 and 1985 might be the only similar ones in recent times.  Both had historic cold before the middle of December.  This winter could be epic if it doesn't burn itself out too early.

 

BTW...1971 has been coming up as a big analog also.  That one had Arctic air and snow in the Western Lowlands in October.

[Front Ranger]

No way it's a coincidence the mid 1980s were at solar min. I am really excited about the implications of this. If high solar activity / lag effect from that has been our problem since 1975 we could be in for some serious fun going forward. No doubt the last solar minimum started to get things going the right way, but this one being just as low starts to get a cumulative effect going.

The solar max for solar cycle 24 was the weakest since the early 1900s.

 

It's also very possible that this min ends being not only lower, but also longer than the last one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I imagine only 1972 and 1985 might be the only similar ones in recent times.  Both had historic cold before the middle of December.  This winter could be epic if it doesn't burn itself out too early.

 

BTW...1971 has been coming up as a big analog also.  That one had Arctic air and snow in the Western Lowlands in October.

 

1971-72 is one of my top analogs right now. Really great winter for the Puget Sound, chilly, but not too snowy for NW Oregon.

[snow_wizard]

It appears I was mistaken about September 1985 having a big snow in the Central WA Cascades.  It was 1984.  1985 featured an abnormal cold snap in very early October.

[Jesse]

It appears I was mistaken about September 1985 having a big snow in the Central WA Cascades.  It was 1984.  1985 featured an abnormal cold snap in very early October.

September 1984 was the month that was mentioned as having the earliest snowfall on record at Government Camp, so that would fit better.

 

Early October 1985 gave PDX their earliest freeze on record, though.

[Front Ranger]

I still remember that. It dropped to 42 by midnight with rain falling. That one blew me away. This kind of thing is almost always associated with great winters here.

Didn't Pullman get like 6" of snow in June 2008?

[TT-SEA]

I think I am hearing that we will have a white Thanksgiving!

[Jesse]

As of 11am PDX is still at 52, which is lower than what had been their coldest low for the month just a few days ago.

[Phil]

Soooo....winter uncancel?

Lol..I love you guys. I merely predicted a several week period of wave amplification (and I incorrectly projected the ridge to station over BC/PNW instead of the GOA. Being wrong is part of the job, after all).

 

I don’t think winter was ever cancelled though. Background state looks the same to me this winter as it does right now on the large scale..a weak NPAC jet/amplified wave train, becoming drier than average across BC/NW North America as seasonal climo becomes wetter (as this regime of amplified/meridional streamflow becomes less efficient at delivering those screaming early/midwinter jets..better for cold though!)

 

Seems that, based on analogs I’m looking at, the weaker NPAC jet/more amplified wavetrain years correspond to colder patterns across the PNW and the Intermountain West with a deep, digging trough in the midwinter period, while the slightly more zonal, or “blah” outcomes across the NPAC have much warmer/wetter outcomes with colder eastern winters that trend +PNA with time.

[TT-SEA]

Didn't Pullman get like 6" of snow in June 2008?

 

From 6/10/08:

 

2008- An unusual snowfall occurred on the Washington Palouse from Tekoa south to Uniontown. Pullman recorded 1.5 inches of accumulation. This was the latest measurable snowfall in Pullman since records began in 1940. In fact, no snow had ever been reported during the month of June before this date. The snow damaged several trees in Colfax. In Pullman, several downed power lines and broken tree branches resulted from the snow. Property damage from this event is estimated at $2,000. Moscow also recorded a tenth of an inch of snow.

[GHweatherChris]

It is surprising to see it that low this early, though.

Nah, the models have been showing it for days now.

[snow_wizard]

The solar max for solar cycle 24 was the weakest since the early 1900s.

 

It's also very possible that this min ends being not only lower, but also longer than the last one.

 

It appears this back to back deep minimum will surpass anything since the Dalton Minimum.  This is looking slightly more impressive overall than the 3 cycle wannbe grand minimum in the 1879 through 1914 period.

[ShawniganLake]

1971-72 is one of my top analogs right now. Really great winter for the Puget Sound, chilly, but not too snowy for NW Oregon.

1971-72 was a big snow year for BC too. 70” here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1971-72 was a big snow year for BC too. 70” here.

 

1970-71 was a huge snow year in NW Oregon.

1971-72 Not much lowland snow, but cool December and big arctic outbreak in late January. 

1972-73 All time record lows of -12 at Salem and Eugene in December, other arctic outbreak in early January.

 

Good 3 year stretch. If you go back to 1968-69 there were 4 really good winters in 5 years.

[snow_wizard]

Nah, the models have been showing it for days now.

 

I think he meant a surprise on more of a grand scale.

[Requiem]

1971-72 is one of my top analogs right now. Really great winter for the Puget Sound, chilly, but not too snowy for NW Oregon.

I hope we get a more...even winter. 1996 would be great!

[snow_wizard]

1971-72 was a big snow year for BC too. 70” here.

 

I know you got pounded in 1970-71 too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope we get a more...even winter. 1996 would be great!

 

I think 96' is extremely overrated. It wasn't even the best winter of the 90s.

[Jesse]

I think he meant a surprise on more of a grand scale.

Yeah, smh.