September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah, smh.

Lolz

[Requiem]

I think 96' is extremely overrated. It wasn't even the best winter of the 90s.

My ideal winter would 95-96– it was really variable. Windstorm, snowstorm, ice storm, heavy rain, etc.

 

But I do like 1996 for the crazy setup in December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think 96' is extremely overrated. It wasn't even the best winter of the 90s.

 

Well, for snow and cold...

If you have a windstorm fetish, and get a hard on for flooding, I guess it had it all.

[snow_wizard]

1971-72 was a big snow year for BC too. 70” here.

 

The Jan 1972 snowstorm was incredible in the Puget Sound region.  An absolute classic with heavy / deep snowfall and plunging temperatures during the storm.  Afterward it was on the ground for days with very cold temps.  The first really epic snowstorm I clearly remember and perhaps my favorite to this day.

[Phil]

1971-72 is one of my top analogs right now. Really great winter for the Puget Sound, chilly, but not too snowy for NW Oregon.

What are you seeing in 1971/72? That seems more like an inverse analog to me, lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you made me pick 3 analogs right now I would throw 1971-72, 2006-07, 2012-13 at you.

[snow_wizard]

My ideal winter would 95-96– it was really variable. Windstorm, snowstorm, ice storm, heavy rain, etc.

 

But I do like 1996 for the crazy setup in December.

 

1995-96 was very decent.  Several snow events in the last half of January and a nice Arctic blast late January which kept it cold into Feb.  Medium sized lakes froze thick enough to walk on in this area.  Dec 1996 was amazing in its own right, but it was a mess too.

[TT-SEA]

Well, for snow and cold...

If you have a windstorm fetish, and get a hard on for flooding, I guess it had it all.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

What are you seeing in 1971/72? That looks more like an inverse analog to me, lol.

 

It could be just a coincidence we are matching it so closely right now, but who knows for sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What are you seeing in 1971/72? That looks more like an inverse analog to me, lol.

 

Just more pattern progression, if we're talking about ENSO 72-73 would probably be a better pick.

[snow_wizard]

If you made me pick 3 analogs right now I would throw 1971-72, 2006-07, 2012-13 at you.

 

I really like 1985 for a number of reasons.  A lot of matches including QBO, ENSO to some extent, solar, and the fact the late part of the preceding winter had major cold like this year did.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really like 1985 for a number of reasons.  A lot of matches including QBO, ENSO to some extent, solar, and the fact the late part of the preceding winter had major cold like this year did.

 

Fun fact. 1985 is the coldest year on record at SLE (1892-present). Pretty amazing, especially when you consider it had a fairly hot summer. 

[Deweydog]

Y’all are gonna laugh me out of the room but this Thanksgiving is gonna be COLD. Dry though...

[snow_wizard]

Fun fact. 1985 is the coldest year on record at SLE (1892-present). Pretty amazing, especially when you consider it had a fairly hot summer. 

 

That is pretty surprising with years like 1955 floating around out there.  1985 was really cold though.  I remember cold snaps through the year except a couple of months in the summer, which was warm.

[Front Ranger]

From 6/10/08:

 

2008- An unusual snowfall occurred on the Washington Palouse from Tekoa south to Uniontown. Pullman recorded 1.5 inches of accumulation. This was the latest measurable snowfall in Pullman since records began in 1940. In fact, no snow had ever been reported during the month of June before this date. The snow damaged several trees in Colfax. In Pullman, several downed power lines and broken tree branches resulted from the snow. Property damage from this event is estimated at $2,000. Moscow also recorded a tenth of an inch of snow.

"Unusual"snowfall lol...for an event that had never happened before. Almost like they were afraid to say historic.

 

Clearly written by a global warming freak.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is pretty surprising with years like 1955 floating around out there.  1985 was really cold though.  I remember cold snaps through the year except a couple of months in the summer, which was warm.

 

It beats out 1955 by 0.3F. January and November were the big difference makers. Which is surprising considering the big blast in November 1955, but November 1985 was just such a top to bottom outlier it blows pretty much every November out of the water. And there has not even been a January within 2 degrees of January 1985 since. 1993 and 2017 were the closest...

 

SLE's average low in January 1985 was 25.3. 

[BLI snowman]

I like a 1919-20 analog. Similar ENSO and the 100 year thing is pretty hard to ignore.

 

Also got kinda cold in late September that year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also interesting that 1985 is the 2nd driest year on record at SLE. It was narrowly edged out for #1 by 2013. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Went up to Chinook pass and crystal mountain this morning. Was 1” of snow at chinook pass and a trace at crystal mountain.

[TT-SEA]

I like a 1919-20 analog. Similar ENSO and the 100 year thing is pretty hard to ignore.

 

Also got kinda cold in late September that year.

 

 

September of 1919 was a much nicer month in this area compared to 2019.    D*mn global cooling!

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Morning low of 45 in Tacoma coldest since May. 0.07” of rain today.

[Phil]

If you made me pick 3 analogs right now I would throw 1971-72, 2006-07, 2012-13 at you.

I’d respond with 1967/68, 1969/70, 1972/73, 1985/86, 1995/96, 2004/05, and possibly 2018/19 as the safest blend encompassing the majority of possible outcomes.

[BLI snowman]

September of 1919 was a much nicer month in this area compared to 2019.    D*mn global cooling!

 

 

 

Your area also got screwed badly in December that year. Maybe a little more early fall rain would have helped...

[Phil]

Just more pattern progression, if we're talking about ENSO 72-73 would probably be a better pick.

1972/73 has been a “closet” analog of mine for awhile, albeit on the far end of the spectrum.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Lovely how global warming is causing record September snowfall.

[TT-SEA]

Your area also got screwed badly in December that year. Maybe a little more early fall rain would have helped...

Possibly!

 

But I would chose a nice September over December snow if I had to pick one.

[Kayla]

As long as we're talking analogs, the Great Falls NWS has been referencing a 1934 September trough and system that was very similar to this current one. Could add that one to the list as well.

[Front Ranger]

If we're going with composite blends, I like 1977-78, 1985-86, 1996-97, 2008-09, and 2009-10.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like a 1919-20 analog. Similar ENSO and the 100 year thing is pretty hard to ignore.

 

Also got kinda cold in late September that year.

 

Whenever I read USFS 1919 by Norman Maclean and he tells the tale of an early snow storm in the Bitterroot Mountains, I think about what happened a few months later...

[Omegaraptor]

If we're going with composite blends, I like 1977-78, 1985-86, 1996-97, 2008-09, and 2009-10.

 

Looks like 77-78 actually gave Portland a really good snow event in November. Certainly better than the dumpster fire of a winter that came before it.

[GHweatherChris]

2019-20

[BLI snowman]

As long as we're talking analogs, the Great Falls NWS has been referencing a 1934 trough and system that was very similar to this current one. Could add that one to the list as well.

 

The September systems in 1926 and 1934 are both very analogous.

 

1926-27 was among the most Portland-centric winters on record for snow. 20.8" that winter in downtown Portland while Eugene had 1.0", Salem had 4.9", Seattle had 5.7", and Olympia had 6.1". 

[Jesse]

Whenever I read USFS 1919 by Norman Maclean and he tells the tale of an early snow storm in the Bitterroot Mountains, I think about what happened a few months later...

A couple feet of snow expected in the Bitterroots over the next few day’s.

[Jesse]

The September systems in 1926 and 1934 are both very analogous.

 

1926-27 was among the most Portland-centric winters on record for snow. 20.8" that winter in downtown Portland while Eugene had 1.0", Salem had 4.9", Seattle had 5.7", and Olympia had 6.1".

From what I understood this couldn’t touch 1926. That brought multiple lows in the teens to Shawnigan Lake or something.

[snow_wizard]

As long as we're talking analogs, the Great Falls NWS has been referencing a 1934 September trough and system that was very similar to this current one. Could add that one to the list as well.

 

1934 did have some record lows in this area too.  Might be worth taking a closer look at.  At any rate January 1935 had an amazing Arctic blast and snow event in this area.

[snow_wizard]

The September systems in 1926 and 1934 are both very analogous.

 

1926-27 was among the most Portland-centric winters on record for snow. 20.8" that winter in downtown Portland while Eugene had 1.0", Salem had 4.9", Seattle had 5.7", and Olympia had 6.1". 

 

As we've talked about before that 1919 through 1937 period was pretty ridiculous.  Almost every winter had something noteworthy in the way of cold and or snow.  Some were very Portland centric, but 1928-29 was fantastic for the Puget Sound region.  All in all every area got hit hard several times in that run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 58F now with SW winds.  Probly the warmest spot in the western lowlands.

[Kayla]

Looks like the 12z Euro continues the blocking theme in the long range. Surprise surprise. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The September systems in 1926 and 1934 are both very analogous.

 

1926-27 was among the most Portland-centric winters on record for snow. 20.8" that winter in downtown Portland while Eugene had 1.0", Salem had 4.9", Seattle had 5.7", and Olympia had 6.1".

Does ACIS have downtown records for Eugene? Airport only goes back to 1939.

[Omegaraptor]

As we've talked about before that 1919 through 1937 period was pretty ridiculous.  Almost every winter had something noteworthy in the way of cold and or snow.  Some were very Portland centric, but 1928-29 was fantastic for the Puget Sound region.  All in all every area got hit hard several times in that run.

 

Pre-1919 all the way back to the start of the record was also pretty ridiculous. 2016-17 would have been considered completely normal back in those days.