September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Worst as in snowiest and coldest. Not as in a warm snowless winter.

Sometimes the worst are the nicest. And sometimes the best are the worst. The best may not even be very nice.

 

Subjective, value laden terminology can get confusing quickly.

[TacomaWaWx]

Whether this winter meets official El Niño criteria or falls just short is irrelevant, IMO. The boundary conditions will be the same (warm WPAC/dateline, cooler EPAC, +PMM, cool Indo-Pacific/E-IO domain, +QBO @ 50mb with descending easterly shear above, low solar).

 

The question is all in the timing/amplitude of the intraseasonal cycle/nonlinear dynamics that can affect important system features such as PV strength/states of wave breaking/etc, which in turn can ignite feedback loops/phase changes or terminate pre-existing ones.

We will see. I’ve actually been trying to learn about the pacific weather patterns over the last year. I definitely don’t know as much as some of you but there lots of information that I’ve learned from your and other people’s posts since I’ve been logging in here the last year. I understand a few of the acronyms you use now but not alot of it.

[TT-SEA]

Lovely day... except for the mess our cedar made. Always happens during the first real wind of the fall.

 

[smerfylicious]

At least 3" of snow at Washington Pass. Fantastic drive along US 20. Should pick up another couple inches overnight as well.

[Deweydog]

[Anti Marine Layer]

Going to be chilly for the Oregon State game.

[Front Ranger]

Lovely day... except for the mess our cedar made. Always happens during the first real wind of the fall.

 

BAD cedar!

[smerfylicious]

Going up to the pass. ~4000 feet

[snow_wizard]

Well, we both have 1985/86 included.

 

Not sure whether that’s a reason to be confident or to rip up the script and start over.

 

We seem to have a good consensus on 1985.  

[Guest CulverJosh]

Already had big flakes falling here in Culver...2700'

[snow_wizard]

I've always dreamed of getting snow like they did over 100 years ago. I think our winters will get colder and snowier in the decades to come. We've already started to see the change over these past few winters. There will still be duds every now and then but cold and snowy winters will be the norm.

 

The funny thing is the duds in the 19th century were every bit as bad as the duds now.  There were many more to good to great winters though.

[snow_wizard]

Nice and crisp today with puffy clouds moving out of the north and N breezes at the surface.  The temp has been stuck around 56 to 57 for a while now.

[TacomaWaWx]

56 and mostly sunny in Tacoma. Really nice out little breezy out of the north.

[GHweatherChris]

Shorts day!

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX already snuck up to 60 today. Kind of a shame, was thinking a high in the 50s was a lock. Maybe tomorrow.

 

High of 58 here so far.

[snow_wizard]

Mission ridge is already quite snowy.  The WRF shows them getting nuked over the next 24 to 36 hours.  Should be utterly historic for that location.

 

https://www.missionridge.com/webcams

[Jesse]

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is on board for another shot of cool continental air early in week two.  This is looking very interesting for sure.

[snow_wizard]

 

C3900022-FBB5-4317-85BB-070372C669B9.jpeg

 

Portland sux.

[TT-SEA]

I have one son at the Huskies game in 60-degree sunshine trolling the other son in 40-degree rain in Pullman on our group snapchat.

 

I told my Husky son that I hope the Huskies don't Coug it!

[Requiem]

Portland sux.

 

That's apparent after last winter

 

But seriously though, I really hate the fact that they use the airport location sometimes. A double-edged sword, because it's hardly what is representative of a large part of the metro (especially in snowstorms).

[ShawniganLake]

Some very dry air moving into the B.C. south coast now. White Rock is at 65F but the dew point is all the way down to 27F

[snow_wizard]

Some very dry air moving into the B.C. south coast now. White Rock is at 65F but the dew point is all the way down to 27F

 

Pretty typical that drier air is forcing higher surface temps.  That should be mitigated considerably over the next few days.

[snow_wizard]

The temp quickly fell back to 53 when a little bit of convective activity kicked in.  Unquestionably a very cool air mass.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice looking cell headed for Portland area.

[Jesse]

Nice looking cell headed for Portland area.

Should keep us from getting too much above 70.

[TT-SEA]

Some rain here now... ECMWF showed this happening this afternoon for the last several runs. Tomorrow afternoon stays dry though.

[Jesse]

Just had some very loud thunder here.

 

Down to 54 degrees.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just had some very loud thunder here.

 

Down to 54 degrees.

Seattle gets thunder yesterday, Portland today nice.

[TacomaWaWx]

The temp quickly fell back to 53 when a little bit of convective activity kicked in. Unquestionably a very cool air mass.

Was pretty cold today up in the mountains. Was snowing down as low as 3800-4000’ on my way home. Looks like rain is moving in the reverse direction it normally does across the sound, NE to SW.

[Phil]

I miss this.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1177924825836212224

[Requiem]

Decently intense cell moving into E. Portland, looks like.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I like a 1919-20 analog. Similar ENSO and the 100 year thing is pretty hard to ignore.

 

Also got kinda cold in late September that year.

Looks like PDX had 19" that winter, not bad. 1916-17 had 19.6" of snow and the 100 year cycle correlated pretty well to 2016-17.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like PDX had 19" that winter, not bad. 1916-17 had 19.6" of snow and the 100 year cycle correlated pretty well to 2016-17.

 

The arctic blast of December 1919 is pretty hard to top.

[Requiem]

https://twitter.com/ChristopOConnor/status/1178083889056645120

[Dave]

Looks like a semi convective blob of moisture is headed my way. Hope to hear a clap or two. Pdx looks to be getting some interesting weather shortly.

[Blizzard777]

Big O Thunderstorm SE Portland

[ShawniganLake]

[Requiem]

Seeing some Twitter comments talking about some strong winds with the cell parked over E. Portland right now. Windy and very dark over here.

[Blizzard777]

Small hail and heavy rain.....nice