BLI snowman Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 I could definitely see a pretty decent jet extension midmonth as we transition out of this meridional regime and move into a likely much milder pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Looks like a somewhat milder version of the 1985 trough which hit around 10/8-9. Similar trajectory to the 2008 trough which came through on these same dates. Pretty decent record low potential for Thursday and Friday.The late September trough easily bested 1985's version, and this coming one looks to me like it will get pretty close to 1985's second one. Which of course, was an all-time great for early October. All in all, one would be hard pressed to find a year with two more impressive early fall air masses/troughs. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 I have a couple friends from here that moved to Seattle area mid August for her job. Talked to them today and apparently they're loving it...despite the unusually wet September they had to endure. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 I have a couple friends from here that moved to Seattle area mid August for her job. Talked to them today and apparently they're loving it...despite the unusually wet September they had to endure.Did they move to Seattle itself? I would be much more concerned about homeless crisis and the trash everywhere than the weather. Seattle must protect the rights of certain disadvantaged people to completely ruin the city for everyone else. Let them do whatever the hell they want. Its disgusting. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Did they move to Seattle itself? I would be much more concerned about homeless crisis and the trash everywhere than the weather. Seattle must protect the rights of certain disadvantaged people to completely ruin the city for everyone else. Let them do whatever the hell they want. Its disgusting.Kirkland. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Way colder. 700mb temps only bottomed out around -11 to -12C with the last one. For reference for those that don’t know, 700mb temps here are equivalent to 850mb temps for the PNW lowlands. So it’s a very chilly trough for anytime of the year.That's good to know. During winter every now and then I accidentally select the 700mb map and get super excited. Only to realize it's not the 850mb map. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Looks like a somewhat milder version of the 1985 trough which hit around 10/8-9. Similar trajectory to the 2008 trough which came through on these same dates. Pretty decent record low potential for Thursday and Friday. It's gonna give it a run for its money out here that is for sure. The forecast numbers look very similar at this point. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Kirkland.Nice. Hard not to love Kirkland. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 The late September trough easily bested 1985's version, and this coming one looks to me like it will get pretty close to 1985's second one. Which of course, was an all-time great for early October. All in all, one would be hard pressed to find a year with two more impressive early fall air masses/troughs. 1970 kind of stands out in my mind, although I'm not sure I would say they were both "more impressive" but there a lot of wild swings that fall with some historic cold thrown in and early arctic clippers. Stations like SLE used to actually be capable of some crazy temp spreads and that fall was perhaps the most extreme on record. In 1970, they had a 70/28 day on 9/13, an 89/39 day on 9/26, and finally a 93/38 day on 10/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 I could definitely see a pretty decent jet extension midmonth as we transition out of this meridional regime and move into a likely much milder pattern.Definitely a possibility. Question is, does most of it stay up in BC? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 1970 kind of stands out in my mind, although I'm not sure I would say they were both "more impressive" but there a lot of wild swings that fall with some historic cold thrown in and early arctic clippers. Stations like SLE used to actually be capable of some crazy temp spreads and that fall was perhaps the most extreme on record. In 1970, they had a 70/28 day on 9/13, an 89/39 day on 9/26, and finally a 93/38 day on 10/2.That’s crazy. Very rare to even get those kind of spreads east of the cascades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 I have a couple friends from here that moved to Seattle area mid August for her job. Talked to them today and apparently they're loving it...despite the unusually wet September they had to endure. The weather this summer and fall so far has been absolutely lovely IMO. Probably my favorite July to October stretch (thus far) in recent memory, along with 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Nice. Hard not to love Kirkland.Really not a bad area but hard to live in unless you are rich, like yourself. I love my place out here in Culver. Real people, down to earth people. Not consumed by the rat race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Looking like there will probably be some 30s around the area tonight. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 1970 kind of stands out in my mind, although I'm not sure I would say they were both "more impressive" but there a lot of wild swings that fall with some historic cold thrown in and early arctic clippers. Stations like SLE used to actually be capable of some crazy temp spreads and that fall was perhaps the most extreme on record. In 1970, they had a 70/28 day on 9/13, an 89/39 day on 9/26, and finally a 93/38 day on 10/2. It's probably no coincidence 1970, 1985, and 2008 all had serious cold somewhere in November and or December. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Did they move to Seattle itself? I would be much more concerned about homeless crisis and the trash everywhere than the weather. Seattle must protect the rights of certain disadvantaged people to completely ruin the city for everyone else. Let them do whatever the hell they want. Its disgusting.It's even worse in Spokane. I was shocked when we drove through there couple months ago. It pisses me off to see the legit old homeless man with real issues that needs help for real and across the street the lazy 20 year old punk posing to be homeless. I roll down the window and give them a piece of my mind all the time. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 It's even worse in Spokane. I was shocked when we drove through there couple months ago. It pisses me off to see the legit old homeless man with real issues that needs help for real and across the street the lazy 20 year old punk posing to be homeless. I roll down the window and give them a piece of my mind all the time.Curious, how do you know that this er...”punk”, is pretending? I’m sure there are signs, but what do *you watch out for? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 63/48Felt a bit like summer this afternoon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Curious, how do you know that this er...”punk”, is pretending? I’m sure there are signs, but what do *you watch out for?Nice shoes, clean clothing and clean skin and hair. Also most of the fakes won't look you in the eye because they are guilty. A real person in real help has no guilt usually. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Nice shoes, clean clothing and clean skin and hair. Also most of the fakes won't look you in the eye because they are guilty. A real person in real help has no guilt usually. So, you yell at him every time you passed? Have you asked him if he actually needs help haha? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 00z actually looks like it has even lower heights by just a touch. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 00z GFS cold trough is several notches further west than 12z. Thickness a bit lower and Sub -0c 850s holds over us a bit longer. Model comparison - Tuesday 11 PM 00z and now 12z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 700mb temps drop to -20C on the 00z run. Definitely a colder airmass than 1985 at face value for here. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Yeah 00z is colder. 522 thicknness line dips into NE Washington. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Past 4 runs centered at 11 PM Tuesday. Very noticeable trend to shift the cold trough westward more over us. The Gulf of Alaska block also has trended stronger. Animated GIF > https://imgur.com/nmYOBZR 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 - 5 departure today at SLE. -3 departure at PDX and EUG. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 So, you yell at him every time you passed? Have you asked him if he actually needs help haha?The person doesn’t want help, the person wants money for more drugs. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Down to 42. Probably in the upper 30s tonight. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 The person doesn’t want help, the person wants money for more drugs. Isn't drug addiction technically also a warrant for assistance? Not saying that that is the case in this particular situation-- but the fact that someone is actually out on the streets (essentially begging) for drugs at least hints at some sort of reliance on the thing. Ah well, it's tough, and I'm too naive. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Really not a bad area but hard to live in unless you are rich, like yourself. I love my place out here in Culver. Real people, down to earth people. Not consumed by the rat race.You mean hillbilly rednecks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Isn't drug addiction technically also a warrant for assistance? Not saying that that is the case in this particular situation-- but the fact that someone is actually out on the streets (essentially begging) for drugs at least hints at some sort of reliance on the thing. Ah well, it's tough, and I'm too naive.Most homeless are on drugs, that's the reason I will not give to any of them. Don't believe me, come spend a weekend in Aberdeen, I would bet money you will see a topless crackhead or someone shitting on a wall, someone down on their luck does not do that. And to your first sentence, drug addicts do not warrant assistance from anyone but themselves, they have to make the choice not have their vice easier to acquire. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Mid and long range GFS appear to be trending cooler and wetter. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Most homeless are on drugs, that's the reason I will not give to any of them. Don't believe me, come spend a weekend in Aberdeen, I would bet money you will see a topless crackhead or someone shitting on a wall, someone down on their luck does not do that. And to your first sentence, drug addicts do not warrant assistance from anyone but themselves, they have to make the choice not have their vice easier to acquire.+1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Isn't drug addiction technically also a warrant for assistance? Not saying that that is the case in this particular situation-- but the fact that someone is actually out on the streets (essentially begging) for drugs at least hints at some sort of reliance on the thing. Ah well, it's tough, and I'm too naive.Knowing common knowledge about those drugs, I doubt you'll ever make the decision to touch them. Think about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Should be a nice day for most people in the PNW tomorrow. Won't be a nice day for people who like rain and gloom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 Most homeless are on drugs, that's the reason I will not give to any of them. Don't believe me, come spend a weekend in Aberdeen, I would bet money you will see a topless crackhead or someone shitting on a wall, someone down on their luck does not do that. And to your first sentence, drug addicts do not warrant assistance from anyone but themselves, they have to make the choice not have their vice easier to acquire.I guess. I still feel sorry for them. Give em' some methadone or something, is what I think they should do more. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 I guess. I still feel sorry for them. Give em' some methadone or something, is what I think they should do more.That's we you're talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 I am back from my hunting trip in the Blue Mountains. It was the coldest deer season I can remember experiencing. Snowed about 2" Saturday afternoon/night down at 4000ft and was struggling to reach 40 during the daytime some days. A big flip from recent years. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 I guess. I still feel sorry for them. Give em' some methadone or something, is what I think they should do more.Methadone is just a handout, it doesn't help, it is just a free government version of METH. Our society is fuckked due to naive perception. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2019 Report Share Posted October 6, 2019 00z WRF 5:00 AM Wednesday and I spy 925mb temps of -18c in Central BC. Not bad! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.