Phil Posted October 7, 2019 Report Share Posted October 7, 2019 Same with 2002, especially solar wise.Yes, it has issues. While it’s the closest QBO match going back to the 1950s, solar forcing and the stratospheric chemistry/BDC health overall was quite unfavorable until the mid/late 2000s. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Anyone have an answer to my bees late in the year phenomenon?they seem to be gone here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Anyone have an answer to my bees late in the year phenomenon?1-10-17. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 74/27 at KLMT. In the category of low temperatures, this looks like the coolest first week of October in some years. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Well. My first winter in Central Oregon. I will bring an epic arctic year with me. -10 here means snow for pdx/seatac. My first in Whatcom County. Weather was hardly the main reason for my moving here, but I'd be lying if I said it played no consideration whatsoever. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 .29” on the day so far. Currently cloudy and 55. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Anyway - it was a beautiful day in Everett. Started off with some partial sun, brisk temps, and then was later greeted with a warm south wind with weak gusts. Wind died down, clouds came in from the north, got a bit cooler, and now I have some classic November gray out there. On a side note - please keep the politics, social issues, and whatnot out of this and any other weather thread. Its one thing where it is a quick back and fourth, but another when it just takes up page after page and I have to go hunting for the DJ Droppin or SnowWiz post. I've moved the conversation to the politics thread and will keep doing so. It's October now, so we have stuff to watch for, speculate over, and discuss.No worries. I just sort of joined in the fray and commented once or twice. I was pleasantly surprised and pleased that everyone remained quite civil and considering the topic that's not common often things turn south real fast when discussing politics. 00z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 My first in Whatcom County. Weather was hardly the main reason for my moving here, but I'd be lying if I said it played no consideration whatsoever. Whatcom has long fascinated me. If you want to see what amazing things are possible check out the daily records for Clearbrook in Jan 1950 or the winter of 1936-37. In my book 1936-37 was the flat out perfect winter there. I remember various newscasts years ago that showed the north half of the county in conditions that looked more like North Dakota. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Why do you torment yourself like this? Uh....current ENSO conditions are flat azz neutral. No way to deny it. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Looking at past cases of significant early to mid October cold snaps 1985 and 1949 are really good fits. Both had similar 500mb progressions and the classic two piece surface high complex with half over the NE Pacific and half over Western Canada. Given the results of those two events we should have a shot at seeing max temps in the upper 40s in some places over the next couple of day with lows mid 20s to low 30s. Maybe a low 20s sneaking in somewhere. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Looking at past cases of significant early to mid October cold snaps 1985 and 1949 are really good fits. Both had similar 500mb progressions and the classic two piece surface high complex with half over the NE Pacific and half over Western Canada. Given the results of those two events we should have a shot at seeing max temps in the upper 40s in some places over the next couple of day with lows mid 20s to low 30s. Maybe a low 20s sneaking in somewhere. looking forward to it. Could be another interesting system in the cards in a week or so as well! Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Major dumpage currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Major dumpage currently. Just adding on to that half foot of rain you got last month lol. We only got 0.08” so far today and 0.13” for the month now. You probably have received my monthly rain total in the last 30 minutes. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Man this thing looks cold. Also note the two additional chilly periods showing up now! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 11/20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 65/44 with .05 precipitation hereLooking forward to the winds coming from the North so leaves go away from my yard! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 11/20 This could go one of two ways. We either continue down a pretty steady path to something big in the late autumn / very early winter time frame, or we get into a much milder and stormy pattern with nasty cold in mid winter. Not sure which is most likely yet. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 65/44 with .05 precipitation hereLooking forward to the winds coming from the North so leaves go away from my yard! The wind shift is rapidly spreading southward. This is essentially an Arctic front, but so early the air is only fairly cold instead of brutal. This coming cold snap should produce much larger minus departures for the Seattle area than the last one. Much more favorable evolution on this one. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Well. My first winter in Central Oregon. I will bring an epic arctic year with me. -10 here means snow for pdx/seatac.Jinx!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 This could go one of two ways. We either continue down a pretty steady path to something big in the late autumn / very early winter time frame, or we get into a much milder and stormy pattern with nasty cold in mid winter. Not sure which is most likely yet.I am thinking a decent shot of lowland snow at some point 11/20-Thanksgiving, turning mildish until mid December and then we see the hammer coming down through 1/17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 My first in Whatcom County. Weather was hardly the main reason for my moving here, but I'd be lying if I said it played no consideration whatsoever.Welcome to Whatcom. The exciting/frustrating thing about winter weather here is that we seem to get our best storms when the rest of Western Washington is getting cold rain (see: pretty much all of 2017-2018); and conversely, when Puget Sound is getting the goods, we get icy, dry wind (see: February 2019). And of course, north Whatcom and south Whatcom can feel like entirely different worlds in the right outflow conditions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Welcome to Whatcom. The exciting/frustrating thing about winter weather here is that we seem to get our best storms when the rest of Western Washington is getting cold rain (see: pretty much all of 2017-2018); and conversely, when Puget Sound is getting the goods, we get icy, dry wind (see: February 2019). And of course, north Whatcom and south Whatcom can feel like entirely different worlds in the right outflow conditions. The true greats deliver for everybody though. We are quite due for one of those. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 How old are you snow wiz? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 71/39 on the day. Currently 64F with increasing clouds. There will probly be a crazy temp gradient between me and Jim tonight. He will get down into the low 40s to upper 30s while I will still be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 This could go one of two ways. We either continue down a pretty steady path to something big in the late autumn / very early winter time frame, or we get into a much milder and stormy pattern with nasty cold in mid winter. Not sure which is most likely yet.Anything is possible. Including scenarios not listed. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 How old are you snow wiz?I think he just turned 86 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Looks like there’s a north wind in Everett but a south wind still in Seattle at the moment. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Going to be hard to beat last year for snow in this area over here. That is a Honda civic under 30 inches of snow. 6 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Major dumpage currently.High fiber diet paying off? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Looks like there’s a north wind in Everett but a south wind still in Seattle at the moment.The maples to my south are killing me with helicopter seeds today! By morning hopefully the switch will have taken place.Let the cooling begin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 If y’all haven’t altered your Thanksgiving plans to make them indoors now is the time. #bringajacket 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Sort of interesting to see my high today a little after sunset. Only hit 65 here this afternoon, but a warming SE wind has kicked in this evening pushing the temp up to 66. Might be a lot of midnight highs tomorrow, and 11:59pm lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Arctic front charging thru Lytton at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Sort of interesting to see my high today a little after sunset. Only hit 65 here this afternoon, but a warming SE wind has kicked in this evening pushing the temp up to 66. Might be a lot of midnight highs tomorrow, and 11:59pm lows.12:53 a.m. low in the weather world, boo. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Arctic front charging thru Lytton at the momentPics or it didn’t happen. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 12:53 a.m. low in the weather world, boo.They count the 5 minute obs after 12:53. That’s how the September 24th miracle happened. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Pics or it didn’t happen. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 ECBF6E02-3B68-4B48-B8E7-0DBEC3AC6124.pngA 13F drop in two hours in a well mixed air mass is pretty good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 A 13F drop in two hours in a well mixed air mass is pretty good.Clinton BC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 It is a VERY mild and breezy evening Temp 64.5, Southwest Winds 20-30mph near West Gresham. It *Feels* like Fall out there!PDX and Troutdale are at 66 degrees now! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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