10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm

[snowstorm83]

18z GFS is slightly more encouraging, but still struggles to bring snow up to I-80. At the end of the day though, its still October so any snow would be a bonus. And it would be really amazing to get missed to the south in October. 

[Money]

Def a bit stronger overall

[Madtown]

madtown stl seems good cor October!

[Madtown]

sorry sunday funday!

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings says dry air in lower layers will cut totals to less than an inch with the 1st system. Second system looks more promising. General 2-4” in my area. Snow should be a dry type. They say still changes could occur but this is what they think at this moment.

[Hawkeye]

I would certainly take the GFS.  It's about as good as we can expect if things go right.

[East Dubzz]

That was an interesting run to say the least.

[Iowawx]

The GFS drops an incredible 14 inches of snow in Cedar Rapids. This is incredible. Yesterday the models went north, but today we are right back in the heavy snow. 

 

Like I said earlier, the ground is still way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. Looks like a lot of this snow falls in the afternoon hours which would really make it hard for the snow to stick. 

[St Paul Storm]

The GFS drops an incredible 14 inches of snow in Cedar Rapids. This is incredible. Yesterday the models went north, but today we are right back in the heavy snow.

 

Like I said earlier, the ground is still way too warm for snow to stick to the ground. Looks like a lot of this snow falls in the afternoon hours which would really make it hard for the snow to stick.

 

Sorry, but this is not correct. If snow falls at a good intensity, it will begin to stick. Regardless of soil temps, 2m temps, etc. Snow fell here during the afternoon 2 weeks ago after a 60F day the day before and it began to accumulate on rooftops, grassy surfaces, elevated surfaces. We go through this every year. Snow....will...stick. Especially with a real shot of cold coinciding with the snow event.

[Clinton]

18z ICON with a more robust run this time.  Really starting to line up with the GFS,

[james1976]

E IA into WI really looking like the jackzone on most models at least for now.

 

DMX is thinking just an inch or less with first wave with the bigger deal wed-thu

[Niko]

18z ICON with a more robust run this time.  Really starting to line up with the GFS,

Looks impressive.

[Minny_Weather]

sorry sunday funday!

"best answer" wut

[Clinton]

18z Euro

[Stormhunter87]

Not saying it will happen but I remember the euro doing this last year with a storm.

[jaster220]

18z ICON with a more robust run this time.  Really starting to line up with the GFS,

 

Chucks me a bone..Go ICON! Correctly shows a snowless WMI shoreline due to warm lake shadow as well. 

[East Dubzz]

I’m excited for the time change next week and these model runs to be an hour earlier.

[Clinton]

Chucks me a bone..Go ICON! Correctly shows a snowless WMI shoreline due to warm lake shadow as well. 

I didn't notice the WMI shoreline, does that ever happen?

[dubuque473]

Wonder how much rain to start off with....

[jaster220]

I didn't notice the WMI shoreline, does that ever happen?

 

For a pre-season set-up like this it sure does because the lake is like a giant bat tub full of warm (picture steaming) water. With a west wind, it will be too warm for the snow showers until half a county inland from the shoreline. Later in winter as the lake cools down and especially if a nice ice-pack builds out from shore, the LES will fall right at the coast and not carry as far inland. 

[East Dubzz]

Not that it really makes too much of a difference, but the NAM really isn’t too impressive for tomorrow night around here.

[dubuque473]

Cut grass today, fertilizing tomorrow and maybe shoveling my deck on Tuesday.

[CentralNebWeather]

NAM really not good for anyone on here for system 1 or 2. Keeps almost all the meaningful snow even west of me.

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM looks like the Canadian on Halloween... too positively tilted, no storm.

[Niko]

Chucks me a bone..Go ICON! Correctly shows a snowless WMI shoreline due to warm lake shadow as well. 

You may get a dusting. I'd say its a great way to end October.

[GDR]

The nam this far out I wouldn’t put to much stock into it

[Stormhunter87]

NAM really not good for anyone on here for system 1 or 2. Keeps almost all the meaningful snow even west of me.

Dry slots us hard for that first system.

[jaster220]

You may get a dusting. I'd say its a great way to end October.

 

Yep. Had 0.5" in 2013, a similar amt in 2009. On 10/12, 2006 we got that freaky early snow but I don't think it was more than an inch. A glaze at Halloween 2014. Just tough to get much in Oct. November's a whole different story. 

[Niko]

Yep. Had 0.5" in 2013, a similar amt in 2009. On 10/12, 2006 we got that freaky early snow but I don't think it was more than an inch. A glaze at Halloween 2014. Just tough to get much in Oct. November's a whole different story. 

It wont be too long till we start getting some good snows here.

[Hawkeye]

00z ICON following the trend, weaker and east.

[Money]

Gfs looks lousy

 

This sure turned into a dud

[Money]

N. MO/SE IA end up doing decent (4-7) but meh

[Hawkeye]

(insert model here) weaker and east.

 

The southern Canada energy keeps getting more robust on all the models and it's leading to the decline of the Halloween storm.

[Clinton]

GFS producing a historic snowfall for KC for Oct

[Stormhunter87]

Haha my parents are going to get clobbered. I lose the bet but my Dad gets to shovel.

[Money]

Still don’t understand why some people use 10:1 ratio maps when posting snowfall maps. Especially in October

[Clinton]

Still don’t understand why some people use 10:1 ratio maps when posting snowfall maps. Especially in October

Here ya go

[ToastedRavs]

Yeah, have to remember if anyone gets half of what the GFS has, they should be thrilled. Someone will get 6 inches between the two. Should be happy for whoever gets it! It's October people!

[Money]

Here ya go

Wasn’t trying to call you out or anything just doesn’t make sense to use 10:1 ratios in October when that would rarely occur

[Clinton]

Wasn’t trying to call you out or anything just doesn’t make sense to use 10:1 ratios in October when that would rarely occur

For my area the difference was only about an inch or so.  I figure the ratio for KC will average around 8:1