November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Yeah he landed on the deck and it was a 1970’s rambler with a fairly low roof line so it wasn’t too much of a drop. I was the one in front of the tv yelling from the house how the reception was and all of a sudden I see him flying through the air and hitting the deck. He was more upset about missing the game than his bruises. We had one of those motorized rotators on the antenna so you could adjust in the house but it wasn’t working which was pissing him off as well so he already wasn’t overly thrilled about going up there. Never go on a roof mad!

 

 

Wise words!  

 

Right up there with "never get involved in a land war in Asia".

[TT-SEA]

Well. It’s a step in the right direction. Not like the blob has any real effect in snow setups in the lowland anyways. Definitely has nothing to do with chances over here.

I agree... I am not selling the blob.

 

Just clarifying that was the 7-day change map.

[Front Ranger]

That was the change map... here is the current SSTA map:

 

 

To be clear...the original "blob" hugged the west coast. Current iteration has much cooler anomalies along the coast.

[TT-SEA]

To be clear...the original "blob" hugged the west coast. Current iteration has much cooler anomalies along the coast.

Now people will think I am selling the blob. I don't care about it. I was pointing out the 7-day cool down in the ENSO 3.4 region. Culver bought up the blob.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Now people will think I am selling the blob. I don't care about it. I was pointing out the 7-day cool down in the ENSO 3.4 region. Culver bought up the blob.

Naw, it just catches my eye first whenever that map is shown. Thanks Cliff.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are worse

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensembles are worse

 

[El_Nina]

Very windy

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still showing some snow on Sunday morning...

 

[Omegaraptor]

[Winterdog]

Ksea has got to be the only reporting station in the entire state of Washington to not have a freezing temp since last spring. I’m guessing even Tatoosh has hit 32 at least once. What a total pile of crap for a station.

[TT-SEA]

And that band still falls apart as it moves into Seattle early Sunday afternoon...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like SLE hit 26 this morning. Not bad. 

[ShawniganLake]

Ksea has got to be the only reporting station in the entire state of Washington to not have a freezing temp since last spring. I’m guessing even Tatoosh has hit 32 at least once. What a total pile of crap for a station.

Not Washington state, but both Victoria UVIC and Victoria Gonzales have both failed to reach freezing this fall. Gonzales hasn’t been below 36.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Not Washington state, but both Victoria UVIC and Victoria Gonzales have both failed to reach freezing this fall. Gonzales hasn’t been below 36.

That dang blob.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 freezes at EUG now 17 at SLE. Of course both locations average way more annually than Seattle, but still. 

[Jesse]

Not Washington state, but both Victoria UVIC and Victoria Gonzales have both failed to reach freezing this fall. Gonzales hasn’t been below 36.

I bet if I looked really hard I could find some personal wunderground stations around town that haven’t reported freezes.

[Phil]

Who knows, maybe models will trend a little wetter, especially for this weekend. We've seen it happen before!

Take any “wet” model solutions with a grain of salt until (at earliest) the second half of January. There’s simply no conduit to a consolidated NPAC jet displaying right now. Like, not even a hint of it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Take any “wet” model solutions with a grain of salt until (at earliest) the second half of January. There’s simply no conduit to a consolidated NPAC jet displaying right now. Like, not even a hint of it.

We gonna get blasted after Christmas aren't we. 

[Phil]

Nice reframing.

Brilliant.

[Deweydog]

We gonna get blasted after Christmas aren't we.

Blob blast?

[Weiner Warrior]

December 22nd, calling it now. First measurable snow downtown Seattle.

[ShawniganLake]

I bet if I looked really hard I could find some personal wunderground stations around town that haven’t reported freezes.

Have fun. I didn’t have to look hard. Those were obvious stations to check. And they are from Environment Canada. Gonzales is one of the oldest stations in the region with data back to the late 1800’s. Do whatever you like with your wunderground sites.

[Blizzard777]

Federal Way winds from the North 4-12 and it managed to make it down to 32* at 6:53 am.  Currently 38* dew point 17*

 

SE PDX currently 41* with very light East winds and sunny

 

However you celebrate today enjoy the moment...Happy Thanksgiving 

[Prairiedog]

The Blob and the EPS are existential threats to us all.  So is this continued suppressed jet.  I need rain.  All my rivers are near summer time lows.  Can't run my sled to fish. Therefore I eat.  Maybe later next week we'll see some rain but it won't bounce the rivers much. 

[ShawniganLake]

Don’t do this to yourself, man.

Do what?

[Jesse]

[Phil]

The western ENSO region has cooled a bit over the last week... the eastern side has warmed.

 

I think that chart covers the western side.

MJO/wind stress effects. Short term vacillations in SSTAs are meaningless in the context of the slower evolving background state (new OKW developing in the WPAC and recycling MJO to cross the Pacific after the Holidays).

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF completely splits that trough later in the week. So much for a dump of snow.

[Phil]

To be clear...the original "blob" hugged the west coast. Current iteration has much cooler anomalies along the coast.

What? As if 50 miles somehow changes the entire complexion?

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

10-day snow total from 12Z ECMWF...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z ECMWF completely splits that trough later in the week. So much for a dump of snow.

 

It is a thanksgiving Turd fest.

[Jesse]

[Deweydog]

Thanksgiving.

[Phil]

Yes. Opposite of a Philnino.

Man, I can’t catch a break. ENSO does almost exactly what I expect it to do, yet as soon as there’s a one week dip, I’m getting trolled.

 

God help me if there’s a rainy week mid-December.

[Phil]

Do what?

My bad, quoted the wrong post. Thought I had deleted it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z ECMWF still showing some snow on Sunday morning...

 

Not bad. Maybe could get a quick dusting or even an inch if all goes well.

[Deweydog]

Man, I can’t catch a break. ENSO does almost exactly what I expect it to do, yet as soon as there’s a one week dip, I’m getting trolled.

 

God help me if there’s a rainy week mid-December.

Reminds me of January 2018. You accurately predict a three week Arctic outbreak yet when on day 15 of it PDX had a flukey-warm high of 33 people were all over you like white on rice.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10-day snow total from 12Z ECMWF...

Pathetic.