CentralNebWeather Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 12Z NAM is a great hit for most Nebraskans on here 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 quite a slow start to the season, but at the point where one storm can get us to average.Yeah I think Nov average up here is around 9”. This storm would put a nice big dent in the deficit. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Nice map. So far, GRR has "breezy" in my grid for wednesday despite the AFD wording I posted last night. Meanwhile, we will have strong winds gusts near or better than 40mph. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Omaha WFO going with 2-4” in northeast Nebraska to an inch or less along I-80 here in town. My grid point forecast has rain all day and not switching over to snow until after 9. Huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Towel thrown. DSM area once again low magnet. Oh well, it's just weather. Enjoy it to those who cash in! 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Towel thrown. DSM area once again low magnet. Oh well, it's just weather. Enjoy it to those who cash in! same here! The next couple of weeks doesn’t look good for the dsm area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 12z GFS also ticking stronger and a tad west. As that next storm hits 971mb before it hits the coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Oax says trace here bleh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 GEM stronger and increased totals for most of NE and MN. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Yes. Most I’ve had is a little over 2” in a single eventWe haven’t seen more than 1” here in Omaha from one event (around 2 inches total for the season so far), and I have doubts that we will see much more than that from this week’s system. I am actually okay with this storm staying away from us this week - we have a busy mid to late week ahead with holiday travel and family activities. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 We haven’t seen more than 1” here in Omaha, and I doubt we will see much more than that from this system... I am okay with this storm staying away from us this week - have a very busy week ahead of work and family activities.I could not agree more with you on this amigo. Same here. Have family and friends coming from NY and California, so, I want the weather to cooperate as well. Afterall, don't want all that food to go to waste, if noone doesn't come due to inclement weather. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Canadian has a monster system the weekend after thanksgiving. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for a storm like that though. LOL 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Every 12z GEFS member is pretty much in line with the op GFS. In addition, every single member is also showing the weekend storm as well. Pretty incredible similarities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 If only the Canadian model was true we would have a glacier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 GEM stronger and increased totals for most of NE and MN. Every 12z GEFS member is pretty much in line with the op GFS. In addition, every single member is also showing the weekend storm as well. Pretty incredible similarities. 'grats SPS, you're gonna rake dude. NW trend's your friend buddy - enjoy the ride (remember, I said you'd get your $$'s worth, lol) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Euro now showing an inch or two Thanksgiving Day across Iowa. Looks to be the leading edge of some WAA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 'grats SPS, you're gonna rake dude. NW trend's your friend buddy - enjoy the ride (remember, I said you'd get your $$'s worth, lol) Thanks. Looking good but still plenty of time for unwanted changes. Can never be too sure what’s going to happen. Here’s the 12z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Winter Storm Watch for me. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Hastings NE200 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 ...Winter Storm Tuesday... NEZ039>041-046>048-060>063-072>075-082>084-250930-/O.NEW.KGID.WS.A.0004.191126T1500Z-191127T0300Z/Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Including the cities of Ord, Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach,Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield,St. Libory, Central City, Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island,Gothenburg, Kearney, Grand Island, Aurora, Elwood, Johnson Lake,Holdrege, Minden, Hastings, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford,Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell,and Hildreth200 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGHTUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central and south central Nebraska. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute and pre-holiday travel. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow is expected mid day Tuesday into Tuesday evening. This will be a heavy, wet snowfall. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Man the 18z NAM is really deepening this thing even more. Way west too. Heavy snows no longer in SE MN. Winter Storm Watch just posted. Ahhhhh.....winter finally arrives. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Winter has finally arrived! I am a bit on the north side of this right now. Kinda funny because there is the winter storm watch and the point has 20% chance of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Winter has finally arrived! I am a bit on the north side of this right now. Kinda funny because there is the winter storm watch and the point has 20% chance of snow.My point was just updated. Total 5-10” with heavy snow in the wording on Tuesday night. Gusts to 30mph. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Winter Storm Warnings now being issued. https://twitter.com/reginabirdwx/status/1198706598446694400?s=21 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Wow at this rate all of Iowa will be throwing in the Towel 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Thanks. Looking good but still plenty of time for unwanted changes. Can never be too sure what’s going to happen. Here’s the 12z Euro Nah, you're 2 days out, the King's been rock steady for a couple of days now. NAM over-amping cuz that's how it works at this range. Did the same here with Vet's Day, only to calm down about 24 hrs out. You're locked-n-loaded my friend. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 APX: SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday night)Issued at 251 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019...Classic "November Gale" to impact the region the middle of thisweek... Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Gosh APX's write-ups put my office to shame. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Quite the energetic pattern starting totake shape this afternoon as mature and intense upper jet core andattendant mid level shortwave trough dig southeast across the Gulfof Alaska, with the nose of that upper jet already pushing into thePacific Northwest. While not quite as intense, elongated subtropicaljet only adding to the complexities as it stretches across thesouthern states into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Eventual merger ofthese upper jet cores will help sharpen and organize that mid levelshortwave trough as it digs into vicinity the four-corners areaovernight Monday. This system will continue to mature, with it and arapidly developing surface response making a run into the GreatLakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Pattern recognitionstrongly supports guidance trends of a very deep and energetic stormsystem, resulting in a classic November Gale bringing a myriad ofimpacts to the Great Lakes region during the period. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Gfs being more aggressive here but the Nam is feeding more warm air :/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 Perfect track for the low here dry air and warm sigh 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2019 Report Share Posted November 24, 2019 18z NAM trying to up my Nov snow total via the backside lake moisture: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 18z Euro 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I think it’s conceivable that we get only an inch from this storm and then rain with maybe a few flurries from the big one this weekend. It was cold to start the month but it’s looking like we’ll head into December with no snow on the ground and only 2.5-3” of snow for the season. Only will have snowed twice here this month too. Pretty close to average probably so nothing too extreme except of course the cold to begin the month. Perfect track for the low here dry air and warm sigh 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Yeah it’s disappointing but not surprising. The storm track which buries was the entire state north and west of Omaha/Lincoln is a story as old as time. Just hoping we can score big in Jan/Feb when it matters the most. 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 OmahaSnowFan... NEW DATA coming out soon, let’s see if you can get at SE shift. You don’t need much of a shift to get into some good snowfall Tuesday night. One thing is for sure, you are more in the game then us down here in KC. Pretty normal for us to miss snow storms to our NW in November. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Yeah it’s disappointing but not surprising. The storm track which buries was the entire state north and west of Omaha/Lincoln is a story as old as time. Just hoping we can score big in Jan/Feb when it matters the most.I hate to say it, but things were bound to retreat more back to normal after last winter's snowy craziness around here. To expect back to back years with way above average snowfall isn't being very realistic around here. Getting big snowstorms in this part of Nebraska\Iowa is difficult in November, this is the month we have been missed to the north by 50-100 miles probably the most out of any. I think getting 1-3 inches of snow from this week's system seems to be a solid bet to me. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Staying optimistic in Omaha area. Laughable how this seems to occur at the very minimum once per year, where the cut off is so close to the metro. Typically we get the shaft. Time will tell! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 18z Euro Right over my house with those large amounts. Colleges get out on Tuesday for Thanksgiving. Lots of travel that day. Our daughter is concerned about her drive home as are we. Probably will be school closures if the forecasted wind along with these accumulations lead to poor visibilities. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Right over my house with those large amounts. Colleges get out on Tuesday for Thanksgiving. Lots of travel that day. Our daughter is concerned about her drive home as are we. Probably will be school closures if the forecasted wind along with these accumulations lead to poor visibilities.The way things look now maybe she could wait a day. It would be nice if the school would close in advance. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 The way things look now maybe she could wait a day. It would be nice if the school would close in advance.We are discussing that. Thanks for the kind thoughts. We love storms but the timing is obviously not ideal right before the holiday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 It’s gonna be a matter of 20 miles for me with snow versus no snow. Seen this many of times where Platte River is dividing line. I hate cutting it this close but at least there is a chance and it’s only November. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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