Pacific Northwest Weather - May 2023

[Cascadia_Wx]

Cooling off quick this evening. Already down to 57 out there with a pretty stiff NW breeze.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Believe or not, marine layer was deep enough to be visible from Palm Springs today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Interestingly enough, though this month is a lock for warmest May ever at SEA and PDX, it will not be at OLM, Landsburg, Battle Ground, downtown Portland, KVUO, etc.

Can't wait to see Jesse's emotional/sexual reaction to this one!

Warmest all time at SLE

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already down to 60 in Lebanon 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Interestingly enough, though this month is a lock for warmest May ever at SEA and PDX, it will not be at OLM, Landsburg, Battle Ground, downtown Portland, KVUO, etc.

Can't wait to see Jesse's emotional/sexual reaction to this one!

And something like 20th coldest May ever for Downtown LA.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Warmest all time at SLE

Yes but it wasn’t warmest all time at every station imaginable throughout the region. Pedestrian.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and a bit breezy today.  Already down to 55F this evening.  It was pretty smoky here this morning and smelled like forest fire.  I assume it was from the fire on northern Vancouver Island 

[MossMan]

Down to 48. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yes but it wasn’t warmest all time at every station imaginable throughout the region. Pedestrian.

What about Jesse's backyard weather station?

[MossMan]

47! 
Oh and still some white piles this afternoon in Stanwood! 

[MossMan]

[Front Ranger]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Warmest all time at SLE

SLE is basically on the same level as PDX and SEA these days. Monthly records are cheap.

As I'm sure you know, Silver Creek Falls has seen a fraction of the monthly warm records that SLE has the past 10 years. 

[Front Ranger]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yes but it wasn’t warmest all time at every station imaginable throughout the region. Pedestrian.

SLE, PDX, and SEA all see monthly records roughly 2-3x compared to stations less influenced by modern UHI. Which is most other stations.

[Phil]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies just released... looks generally warm.  

Take that with a grain of salt.

[BLI snowman]

00z guidance isn't exactly encouraging....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

SLE, PDX, and SEA all see monthly records roughly 2-3x compared to stations less influenced by modern UHI. Which is most other stations.

 

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

SLE is basically on the same level as PDX and SEA these days. Monthly records are cheap.

As I'm sure you know, Silver Creek Falls has seen a fraction of the monthly warm records that SLE has the past 10 years. 

Yes, true… But the elite warm months are happening more frequently. So last August didn’t beat August 1967, but it was in the ballpark.

 

[the_convergence_zone]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Yes, true… But the elite warm months are happening more frequently. So last August didn’t beat August 1967, but it was in the ballpark.

 

The UHI-influenced temps are also useful from a public health perspective because they represent what most people who live in the metroplex are actually experiencing. 
 

We don’t have a perfect surface site in the PNW but we have a number of good long-term records that capture particular microclimates. Quillayute hitting 110 was the biggest jaw dropper of all in the 2021 heat wave! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

35.4 low IMBY

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

******* frost. 

[TT-SEA]

I miss the Bozeman updates... @Kayla 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

******* frost. 

Yikes... 47 here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Cool low of 43 here. Should be another beautiful day.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

00z guidance isn't exactly encouraging....

00Z ECMWF actually looked quite different by the end of the run.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS also hinted at the troughing lifting northward into the PNW by around day 10.    I believe Phil calls that "poleward transport".   

[T-Town]

48 degrees this morning. Chilly. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

17 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies just released... looks generally warm.  

Shows a 4CH trying to develop 2nd half of June

Not Phil's forecast.

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Shows a 4CH trying to develop 2nd half of June

Not Phil's forecast.

Probably tends to drift towards climo in the far long range.  Phil said take it with a grain of salt.   I am the first to point out when Phil is wrong... but he has been absolutely nailing it since early spring.   

[TT-SEA]

Clouds are really thin this morning... sun is easily poking through.    But probably helped keep it a little warmer overnight.

[YahRaEl]

Overcast skies and temps 48-50° out here at Eastside Tacoma neighborhood.

[GobBluth]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF actually looked quite different by the end of the run.  

A legitimate northwest rainstorm to saturate the ground before the next 6 weeks of dryness wouldn't be a bad thing.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS also hinted at the troughing lifting northward into the PNW by around day 10.    I believe Phil calls that "poleward transport".   

Lol. Can actually see eddy transport of westerly momentum in the subtropics on that 500mb image.

*ENSO/STJ will likely prevent a consolidated aleutian high/-PNA pattern so substantial cool anomalies are unlikely in WA/BC, but at least the heat will be over for awhile. And there should be beneficial rainfall.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yikes... 47 here.

The end of the garden

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The end of the garden

If the garden dies from a cloudy 47-degree night then we have big problems. 

[MossMan]

Low of 40! 

[Tyler Mode]

Made it down to 37.8, my coldest low of the month.  Never seen it on the last day before.

[Deweydog]

43 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. Can actually see eddy of westerly momentum in the subtropics on that 500mb image.

*ENSO/STJ will likely prevent a consolidated aleutian high/-PNA pattern so substantial cool anomalies are unlikely in WA/BC, but at least the heat will be over for awhile. And there should be beneficial rainfall.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Phil's expertise needed. Is it normal for the PNW to have heat waves and for Southern California to be cold in late spring/early summer under a developing Nino?

[the_convergence_zone]

Two days in the mid-80s to low-90s on the 6th/7th, then we get rewarded with a cooldown and eventually a few drops of rain. The first half of June still projects to be below normal for precipitation, however. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

19 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Two days in the mid-80s to low-90s on the 6th/7th, then we get rewarded with a cooldown and eventually a few drops of rain. The first half of June still projects to be below normal for precipitation, however. 

Models have been showing rain in the 200-240 hr time frame for 6 weeks now. Not a drop has fallen. I don't believe it. 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

If the garden dies from a cloudy 47-degree night then we have big problems. 

Deer got in my garden the other night. Gave my tomatoes a trim.  That’s a bigger problem than temps in the 40s.