Stacsh Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Certainly an end to December to remember here in Michigan. I’ll remember playing basketball and taking warm sunny walks before (during?) Xmas. glad weather watching is a hobby and not my paid profession because lots of fails. The GFS needs to be thrown in the recycle bin. Just looking at that model and believing anything it puts out is fools errand. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Trust me...I am thinking about it. Michigan is too boring for me. I am a city boy..always have and always will be. I come from the badside of the hood..... Tbh..I have been here now for several years and I only saw 1 real Winter and that was 2013-14. The rest were a joke. Unless you go up north, then, that is a whole different story. Can't imagine anyone from your background being satisfied/happy in a midwest city other than perhaps Chicago. Both coasts are such a different flavor. Wife had been asking to go to the New York International market in W. Bloomfield so we went today. Car thermo said 53F as we were heading east. I see Marshall was at 51F for a couple hours. Surprisingly, still patches of snow on the south side of the freeway just north of Ann Arbor. More impressive are the north facing houses on the street just south of mine. Their front yards still had complete snow cover after these past two hot days. Low sun angle and low DP's for the win. Would never happen with the same temps in late Feb or March. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 From PP on AccuWX (seeing it very well imo) MODELING FAVORS COLDER LATE 11-15 DAY INTO 16-20 DAY: Very hesitant to jump all over this right now. Most modeling showing colder air from the Plains on east during this period, but teleconnections and MJO phase not supporting idea. Big concern that models will trend warmer with later runs.The GFS ensemble is now stalling the MJO in phase 6, out over the Pacific. This would keep milder air across the eastern half of the nation late 11- to 15-day period and early 16- to 20-day period, which is not shown by most of the modeling right now (colder). We need to watch this carefully, the trends next few days. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Phase 6 is blowtorch for this time of year-- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Certainly an end to December to remember here in Michigan. I’ll remember playing basketball and taking warm sunny walks before (during?) Xmas. glad weather watching is a hobby and not my paid profession because lots of fails. The GFS needs to be thrown in the recycle bin. Just looking at that model and believing anything it puts out is fools errand. Was 65F on Christmas of '82, and not much colder two years later. It has been even milder, but this kind of weather has another 9 months to thrive in. We need winter during winter. Seems we've all but lost December as a winter month around here anymore. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Phase 6 is blowtorch for this time of year--590x1132_12190144_screen-shot-2019-12-18-at-8.36.41-pm.png Gonna repeat last season, almost to a "T" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Gfs looks interesting It's trending to more of a slider. Until the Euro even remotely gives a head nod, it's safe money to be skeptical of what it's been showing. Not trying to dampen anyone's mood, but wow did it fail miserably with that OHV slider a week ago. Had it all amped and north until it folded like a house of cards. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 From PP on AccuWX (seeing it very well imo) MODELING FAVORS COLDER LATE 11-15 DAY INTO 16-20 DAY: Very hesitant to jump all over this right now. Most modeling showing colder air from the Plains on east during this period, but teleconnections and MJO phase not supporting idea. Big concern that models will trend warmer with later runs.The GFS ensemble is now stalling the MJO in phase 6, out over the Pacific. This would keep milder air across the eastern half of the nation late 11- to 15-day period and early 16- to 20-day period, which is not shown by most of the modeling right now (colder). We need to watch this carefully, the trends next few days. 590x590_12220234_mjo.jpgIf this MJO forecast verifies, winter is indeed over - at least until late January or February. How depressing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 ^- other than -1F in early NOV here at DSM- it never really begun. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 12z Euro mean and ensembles So, does the Euro have a storm or not? Keep seeing posts that it doesn't but looks like some snow on these maps. Is it like days later or something? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Until the Euro even remotely gives a head nod, it's safe money to be skeptical of what it's been showing. Not trying to dampen anyone's mood, but wow did it fail miserably with that OHV slider a week ago. Had it all amped and north until it folded like a house of cards. Had a chance to loop the 12z. It's drastically different from the GFS in timing and amount of cold. Otherwise, they both have rain for SMI with maybe a bit of back side snow fwiw. I think there's room to get better, but lack of cold means we would likely be trading less rain for less over all strength (as a slider vs cutter). Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 So, does the Euro have a storm or not? Keep seeing posts that it doesn't but looks like some snow on these maps. Is it like days later or something? The Euro ensembles are very very slowly trending toward some snow. The Euro is most likely holding the energy back to long and the GFS is a little to quick kicking it out. I may miss on this one but until I am out of time I'm sticking with a sizable snowstorm from the central plains to the Great Lakes. I am probably on my own and I'm ok with that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Bastardi had a nice and informative Saturday Summary. Goes into quite a bit of depth on the current MJO/SOI situation. He's also still bullish on his analog set. Says it called for a cold Nov and warm Dec and holiday period. Only exception would be 2013. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 The Euro ensembles are very very slowly trending toward some snow. The Euro is most likely holding the energy back to long and the GFS is a little to quick kicking it out. I may miss on this one but until I am out of time I'm sticking with a sizable snowstorm from the central plains to the Great Lakes. I am probably on my own and I'm ok with that. Thx for answering bud! I too think there will be something in the 28th to 1st window. Can only hope it reaches the threshold of "storm" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Thx for answering bud! I too think there will be something in the 28th to 1st window. Can only hope it reaches the threshold of "storm" I'm very confident in a storm, it's the lack of cold showing up as of now that has me scratching my head. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 I'm very confident in a storm, it's the lack of cold showing up as of now that has me scratching my head. By storm, I meant a snowstorm, not just a SLP or system. Guess I wasn't too clear on that 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 By storm, I meant a snowstorm, not just a SLP or system. Guess I wasn't too clear on that LOL I knew what ya meant. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Wow gfs looks toasty through most of the run maybe a cold cool day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 53F and sunny in my grid here tomorrow. yay! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 I'm very confident in a storm, it's the lack of cold showing up as of now that has me scratching my head. 5 years ago this week we were also hopeful for a holiday miracle. In one of it's most epic GreatFantasyStorms runs, the GFS flashed this: Talk about excitement, right? Wrong! Culprit? Lack of cold air coming south from Canada. The merger of N and S storms never really came together. Had 1/2" on my deck overnight Christmas Eve that literally melted by 8 am Christmas morning! So, in summary, it can always be worse. And, actually, this past week's mini-storm here was great by comparison. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 LOL I knew what ya meant. Uhmm..nobody posting the ICON? 12z got amped and wanted to nail WMI pretty nicely. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Man, temps are really plummeting outside. Already down to 37F. Going to around 30F tanite. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Tomorrows temps will soar in the 50s w ample sunshine. I wonder if any pockets of 60s will show up or even approaching 60F. I think there is a slim shot someone does get close. As a dry CF arrives tomorrow nite, temps fall into the 20s (which is back to average). Tuesdays highs will be in the 30s b4 warming back up again into the 40s and possibly near 50F by the weekend. Eventually, it turns much colder by the following week. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 15 yrs ago tomorrow, the great OHV Pre-Christmas storm was winding down. What a beast for those further south (just got grazed here but 6" over towards Ann Arbor). What a Christmas memory/story these Peeps had: A section of I-64 in southwestern Indiana had hundreds of stranded travelers along a 25- mile section for more than 24 hours. The Indiana National Guard, the prime relief force sent to help, used helicopters and Humvees to rescue stranded travelers and to take them to local hotels, churches, and rest shelters. Those same travelers then had to be taken back to their vehicles 2-3 days later. This interstate was not totally cleared until December 28. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 GFS still has system for next weekend. Too bad it's the GFS and too bad it's next weekend. Does anyone have access to accuracy of the GFS compared to other models? It's something like 120 HR forecasts of the 500MB level and graded. Seen it before but not finding it now. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 NOAA: A second short wave fragment moves along a similar path duringThursday which acts to reinforce warm air even more but which alsobrings a stronger cold front by Friday. This marks the first sign ofa changing large scale pattern showing up in extended modelsolutions for next weekend. Deterministic runs exhibit increasinguncertainty in solutions on the upper air pattern that range fromhints of a full latitude trough over the Midwest in the GFS to apronounced rex block holding in the Canadian. The NAEFS mean 500 mbheight supports more of an omega block and a stronger northernstream into the Great Lakes. This supports passage of a front duringFriday to start a downward temperature trend that continues with anadditional front sometime during next weekend that takes readingdown closer to normal by Sunday. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 00z GFS and ICON are almost a perfect match. GFS is just a little colder and a tad further north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 0z GFS looking to be back north..sigh. Last year at New Years, NMI got a nice hit. Wouldn't surprise me if they see deja-vu Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 GFS is going to string me along until mid-week and than I get sober. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019122300&fh=156&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 00z GFS and ICON are almost a perfect match. GFS is just a little colder and a tad further north. ICON keeps it further south up here. Doesn't combine the energy that's north of the Lakes. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 GFS is going to string me along until mid-week and than I get sober. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019122300&fh=156&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs You know it! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 In the following song -- "Tito is the Euro" and "Johnny is the GFS" and Rosa is me. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 UKMET loses system between hrs 120 and 144. Not a good sign for the Euro picking it back up. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 00z GFS mean through next weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 A True Blizzard! https://twitter.com/NWSReno/status/1208863677056598017 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Attm, 35F under clear skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Euro contains no storm a week from now (at least for most of the readers here) and continues the utterly boring and abv avg temps into Jan. Someone said a week or so ago that this DEC couldn't be worse than last. It's pretty close and last DEC really sucked so things are no bueno. ***Edit*** I just checked, I would say it's worse here for DSM. This DEC is going to be at least 2-3F warmer than last. 2.5" of snow this month- 1.2" last DEC- I say this DEC is worse because of the potential that has flunked badly. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 Last nights EC was very close to a big snow storm next weekend, just a tad to warm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2019 Report Share Posted December 23, 2019 6z GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.