GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 00z not as good for next week snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Really not trying to pull a Tim here, just surprised how much warmer this run is than the 18z. There is an almost +10c difference in 850 temps on Monday in Seattle. And then this difference by Wednesday morning... 18z was a throwback to the 1920’s. 00z is more in line with the 2020’s. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I believe the dry east winds will significantly decrease the snow amounts across Puget Sound unfortunately. The Hood Canal and eastern slopes of the Olympics will be buried though.It's really a coin toss. There have been a few events like this that had a light forecasted snow for the eastern puget sound and they ended up getting a big snow. It's going to be watch the radar deal before we know for sure unfortunately. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Really not trying to pull a Tim here, just surprised how much warmer this run is than the 18z. There is an almost +10c difference in 850 temps on Monday in Seattle. And then this difference by Wednesday morning... Models having a hard time with this...very hard. I wouldn’t worry too much about it, the temps have been bouncing big time with each run. Like Matt said...18z on Sunday! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Really not trying to pull a Tim here, just surprised how much warmer this run is than the 18z. There is an almost +10c difference in 850 temps on Monday in Seattle. And then this difference by Wednesday morning... Runs are going to waffle, not concerned. 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 That spinning ULL pattern is not going to do it. It just runs out moisture. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Vancouver Island and Olympic Peninsula appear to be the big winners with the run, the low just hangs out there pushing in moisture but remaining well positioned to continue to draw in Arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 It's really a coin toss. There have been a few events like this that had a light forecasted snow for the eastern puget sound and they ended up getting a big snow. It's going to be watch the radar deal before we know for sure unfortunately.That’s the weird thing, the radar would show snow falling, but the dry air eats it all up so it looks kind of deceiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 We need a weaker high to the north. Potentially mixing is better than very little precipitation.Yeah, I don't think that high is going to budge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Runs are going to waffle, not concerned.This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Really not trying to pull a Tim here, just surprised how much warmer this run is than the 18z. There is an almost +10c difference in 850 temps on Monday in Seattle. And then this difference by Wednesday morning... I appreciate the way you show a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 That spinning ULL pattern is not going to do it. It just runs out moisture. I'll take a couple inches of snow and tons of cold air pouring west of the Cascades. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Not too bad by the end of the week... Ugly for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Not too bad by the end of the week... Only 7" Mother nature is such a cruel bitchh /s 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 On Saturday 516 thickness gets to PDX again and the low is trying to regenerate. lol 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Vancouver Island and Olympic Peninsula appear to be the big winners with the run, the low just hangs out there pushing in moisture but remaining well positioned to continue to draw in Arctic air.I was going to ask you how Victoria would do in such a setup. Wouldn't the north easterly outflow help us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 That spinning ULL pattern is not going to do it. It just runs out moisture.2 things needs to happen I think. 1) It needs a more aggressive push inland. 2) The High pressure sitting North and NE needs to get weaker. As it stands right now, it has been very consistent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Euro is not gonna be kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 These snow maps are comically different with each run. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 00z shows it snowing here from Wednesday afternoon to Saturday morning. Crazy if that verified. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 It’s a just a big ULL. As it’s modeled right now there isn’t much in the way of dynamics to focus lift. Wonder if the eastern slopes of the coast range can provide enough lift from the upslope to make much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Not too bad by the end of the week... Although the donut hole has expanded. Decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I was going to ask you how Victoria would do in such a setup. Wouldn't the north easterly outflow help us? The outflow would enhance the overrunning moisture here and right up along the east side of the island. That's a great setup for us that often overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Decent. A big portion of that snow is now actually coming from the surface low on Tuesday instead of the anemic ULL. Real curious now to see what the euro does with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Remember, EURO has been showing a radically different track and progression for the midweek system. We'll see what happens, but even in this scenario west metro gets quite a bit. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Wonder if the eastern slopes of the coast range can provide enough lift from the upslope to make much difference.Maybe, but I think the dry air in conjunction with the lack of isentropic lift, etc. in general is more the issue. Easterly flow is fairly low level at that point so if we pick up some decent dynamics precip won’t be a huge issue, at least in my opinion. We’ll know more by this time Tuesday. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Now that I have given up on an upper level blast and faced the facts, I am getting excited about this next week. Should be a fun ride. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 MLK My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Interesting that the following system over that weekend is nowhere to be found. This is the first of such run at this hour I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Now that I have given up on an upper level blast and faced the facts, I am getting excited about this next week. Should be a fun ride.Sorry for your upper level loss. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Only 7" Mother nature is such a cruel bitchh /s 1 My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Lol gets cold AGAIN after the 20th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Interesting that the following system over that weekend is nowhere to be found. This is the first of such run at this hour I believe.The models have a full plate between now and then. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The models have a full plate between now and then.They can't even fill a plate between now and then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 They can't even fill a plate between now and then.Ok Tim. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 GEM says f*ck you PDX on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The 0z GEM isn't that far off the 0z GFS for Sunday, but still too far inland. Shows rain right into Sunday evening, even in northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 GEM says f*ck you PDX on Tuesday Getting closer... My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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