Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Jesse]

Mt. Hood snowpack now up to 66% of normal. A week ago it was around 20%.

 

Have to wonder if it will actually hit average before this snowy period ends.

[Timmy]

Have to wonder if it will actually hit average before this snowy period ends.

definitely looks possible. Pretty impressive stretch

[MossMan]

12Z says we are screwed. I'm guessing the NWS will let the watch expire and turn it into an advisory for all areas except where the warning is now in effect. I'm thinking less than 2" for my area anyway.

I do think we end up being okay.

[Timmy]

Short of a hurricane, this has to be one of the more wide spread wet patterns Hawaii can get! You’re welcome!

 

 

-love, kona

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 43F now. Hard to believe we will stay below 40F at any point over the next few days but we’ll see.

[Jesse]

I notice the GFS has been trending cooler in the mid-long range.

[Timmy]

I've been trying to convince TWL of this but he's just not feeling it.

hard to please that depressed gorilla

[TT-SEA]

Short of a hurricane, this has to be one of the more wide spread wet patterns Hawaii can get! You’re welcome!

 

 

-love, kona

 

Really sucks when it gets like this because you can't just drive to the sunny part of the island.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have to wonder if it will actually hit average before this snowy period ends.

 

It will get close. And the GFS at least isn't bone dry or overly warm in the long range. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I've been trying to convince TWL of this but he's just not feeling it.

It’s just hard to believe anything will be changing in the lowlands. I wouldn’t argue about the snowpack getting better. That’s a very good trend. Just wish I could drive. I miss it.

[Timmy]

Really sucks when it gets like this because you can't just drive to the sunny part of the island.

yesterday was the first day it was that bad, hapuna was at least sunny Friday. Yesterday there was a thick cloud shield even over kona. Today, I might just find a movie theater

[Jesse]

It will get close. And the GFS at least isn't bone dry or overly warm in the long range. 

 

Yes, there have been some pretty nice background trends going on there while we have been so focused on the short range.

[runninthruda206]

The WRF Is irritating me lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even next Tuesday with about 1500' snow levels on this run.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Terrific!

[MossMan]

.13” so far this morning, 4.78” on the month.

 

Temp & DP is 37 degrees. Gusty south wind.

 

Moderate rain.

[Jesse]

It’s just hard to believe anything will be changing in the lowlands. I wouldn’t argue about the snowpack getting better. That’s a very good trend. Just wish I could drive. I miss it.

 

You will see sticking snow in the next five days. I'm willing to wager my super NES version of Donkey Kong Country II, complete with a strategy guide that I spilled mountain dew on in 1996.

[TT-SEA]

yesterday was the first day it was that bad, hapuna was at least sunny Friday. Yesterday there was a thick cloud shield even over kona. Today, I might just find a movie theater

 

There is a nice theater that opened a couple years ago in Waikoloa.  At least you don't have to drive all the way to Kona.  We saw Black Panther there.  

[Front Ranger]

In these Arctic boundary/CZ situations, you really can't count on any model getting it right or even being close with snow amounts. Some areas tonight will get WAY more snow than any model shows, and some will get less.

 

All part of the fun

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

yesterday was the first day it was that bad, hapuna was at least sunny Friday. Yesterday there was a thick cloud shield even over kona. Today, I might just find a movie theater

 

You're not playing along right. You really need to focus more on how much you hate the rain and how it's completely ruining your trip.

[TacomaWaWx]

This is going to be an interesting day I can feel it! Interesting several days most likely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can tell you this. My mood will dramatically improve when I see my first flakes.

[Front Ranger]

Short of a hurricane, this has to be one of the more wide spread wet patterns Hawaii can get! You’re welcome!

 

 

-love, kona

Keeping Hawaii green!

[Jesse]

[MossMan]

I can tell you this. My mood will dramatically improve when I see my first flakes.

Everyone on this forum as well.

[TacomaWaWx]

Arctic air is rushing through the Fraser River valley canyon in the interior of BC right now. Only a couple of hours before Bellingham is getting hit by strong NE winds and the fun begins.

[bainbridgekid]

My thoughts on general timing and snowfall amounts:
 

Bellingham: Rain turns to snow between Noon and 2PM. 2-4 inches.
 

Skagit County/San Juan Islands: Rain turns to snow 2PM and 4PM: 1-3 inches.

 

Snohomish County/Whidbey Island: Rain turning to snow showers between 4 PM and 6 PM. 2-4 inches away from the water. 1-3" near the water. Will be watching for where the convergence zone sets up for isolated higher amounts.

 

Seattle/Bainbridge Island/Kitsap: Rain turning to snow showers between 6 PM and 8 PM. 1-3 inches away from the water North of about UW. 0.5"-2" South and along the water. Highly dependent on how far the convergence zone slips South.

 

King County East of Lake Washington: 2-4" North of about I-90. 1-2" South of I-90. Rain turns to snow between 6 PM and 8 PM.

 

Pierce County/Olympia area: 0.5-1.5 inches: Best chance for snow after midnight into Monday morning.

[TT-SEA]

You're not playing along right. You really need to focus more on how much you hate the rain and how it's completely ruining your trip.

 

 

Obsessed with me!

 

And he already said it sucks.   It can ruin a trip if it goes on too long.    I don't really need to pay thousands of dollars to sit in constant rain when we get to do that at home for free all the time.

[kokaneekidz]

I notice the GFS has been trending cooler in the mid-long range.

True that. The weather.com and weather.ca 10 days and 14 days forecasts are now showing mixed snow rain in long range and two days ago they were advertising a major warmup. Crisis averted (for now)

[kokaneekidz]

Obsessed with me!

 

And he already said it sucks.   It can ruin a trip if it goes on too long.    I don't really need to pay thousands of dollars to sit in constant rain when we get to do that at home for free all the time.

When are you two going to make the divorce final?

[Jesse]

True that. The weather.com and weather.ca 10 days and 14 days forecasts are now showing mixed snow rain in long range and two days ago they were advertising a major warmup. Crisis averted (for now)

 

I don't look at those, but the models have been trending cooler. I guess the models dictate what those sites say.

[Front Ranger]

[TT-SEA]

When are you two going to make the divorce final?

 

A huge percentage of his posts are directed at me... and supposedly he has me on ignore.   Its not working!   He is seemingly thinking about me all the time.  

[wxmet]

CMC is much more amplified with the mid week system than previous runs with the low tracking north.

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow through tomorrow afternoon per the WRF... this has been trending towards less snow for the last few runs.    

 

 

 

 

Here was the 00Z run for comparison...

 

 

Glad the WRF is unreliable.

[TT-SEA]

Glad the WRF is unreliable.

 

 

Yeah... I have seen it bust really bad in both directions in these situations.   

 

The ECMWF insists there will be snow even for the Seattle area all the way through Wednesday.

[Jesse]

CMC is much more amplified with the mid week system than previous runs with the low tracking north.

 

That sucks.

[TT-SEA]

CMC is much more amplified with the mid week system than previous runs with the low tracking north.

 

GEM went from the Monday low making landfall in Westport yesterday morning to central Oregon on the new 12Z run.   

 

It swings wildly even within 2 days.

[MossMan]

Glad the WRF is unreliable.

Since Snowmizer is up at his cabin frolicking in the bounties of snow loveliness over there (all of us need a cabin in the snowy land) I am going to speak for him...

 

“The WRF is a steaming pile of donkey Kong , don’t trust it...”