Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Cloud]

I was thinking the same thing. Wouldn’t be the first time in the last year that we’ve seen things back off in the mid range only to trend a little better in the home stretch.

Yup. One thing I will say to some here is to watch the nightshift. Forget the snow maps, watch the 500mb level trend. And then the 12z runs tomorrow to determine the trend if there are any. Huge runs ahead imo.

[Phil]

Not that I'm the final word, but I personally I don't see where its a problem as long has he recognizes its a PNW forum.....hell we have someone from Maryland and someone from Colorado posting here, Bozeman MT, and probably a couple of other places I am not aware of. Anyway, they throw out the occasional observation about their area and its no bid deal. So maybe chill out and lay off the guy!

 

He's kinda screwed regarding the forum for his location, and as this current weather cycle perfectly illustrates, the PNW is a particularly challenging place to forecast at times, which is a weather weenies paradise!

 

 

I think he had the perfect suggestion that if you really have a problem with it this forum is conveniently equipped with an "ignore" feature.

This. Always nice to have new members posting irrespective of their regions imo (as long as they’re not Domebuster’s burner accounts).

[Gradient Keeper]

Before the 6z NAMMY starts what's everyone having for late night snacks?

[jcmcgaffey]

I believe almost every day on the 00Z ECMWF is warmer at the 850mb level than the 00Z run last night that set off the mass depression on here.

 

The models are not turning colder. It's just people expectations have changed.

but my accuweather app has gotten colder since yesterday!

[GHweatherChris]

I believe almost every day on the 00Z ECMWF is warmer at the 850mb level than the 00Z run last night that set off the mass depression on here.

 

The models are not turning colder. It's just people expectations have changed.

My expectation is for a bunch of snow, all good now compared to last night since it looks to last a bit longer. Eff the cold anomalies in the long run.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

Generally add 3 degrees to account for ECMWF cool bias.

[jcmcgaffey]

 

 

Generally add 3 degrees to account for ECMWF cool bias.

why do you think the Mets are going so much lower than what the euro is showing?

[TT-SEA]

why do you think the Mets are going so much lower than what the euro is showing?

No clue.

 

Good luck to them.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Generally add 3 degrees to account for ECMWF cool bias.

aka your own bias.

[Esquimalt]

Disappointing model trends for up this way today. Really cutting back on what was looking like a very snowy week. Maybe things will trend back north again. Hopefully there is some snow for everyone when the outflow kicks in tomorrow

Has your perspective on Victoria’s chances for tomorrow night changed? I’m expecting 2-4 cm but I’m hoping there’s a chance for 10-15 cm

[TT-SEA]

aka your own bias.

No... its very real

[Requiem]

No clue.

 

Good luck to them.

 

It might be to account for the other models being cooler. The EURO is a great model-- but if we were only following the EURO all the time we wouldn't even have latched onto the possibility of snowfall. Which is why we can't hang our hats on a single model.

[SnarkyGoblin]

No... its very real

The Euro in general or specifically for this region?

 

3 degrees is a rather large discrepancy.

[MossMan]

Even if my area hits 33 on one or two of the days this week the DP’s will be much lower I would imagine, so not much in the way of melting off any of the white stuff that falls.

[TT-SEA]

The Euro in general or specifically for this region?

 

3 degrees is a rather large discrepancy.

Puget Sound region.

 

Last night's ECMWF showed 41 at SEA today... it was 46.

 

I am being conservative saying 3 degrees.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Disappointing model trends for up this way today. Really cutting back on what was looking like a very snowy week. Maybe things will trend back north again. Hopefully there is some snow for everyone when the outflow kicks in tomorrow

 

Not exactly the greatest snowfall totals on tap here, either. The real fun starts juuuuust north of me. So close, yet so far.

 

Hope for a model bust. Happens, particularly with lowland snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

37 here and had an official splat test when I was driving home. Looks like the swamp “might” get an inch or two... maybe.

[Brennan]

Before the 6z NAMMY starts what's everyone having for late night snacks?

Debating cereal...

[Phil]

 

Generally add 3 degrees to account for ECMWF cool bias.

I’m pretty sure all models run a cool bias for that SEA UHI hot box. Trash location for a station. #FakeWarmth

[Skagit Weather]

SEA NWS Discussion from 9 p.m.

 

SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds, rain and heavy mountain snow will

continue tonight with strong onshore flow. Fraser River outflow
winds will develop Sunday and the snow level will fall to sea
level as the cold air pushes south through Sunday evening .Cold,
dry air will be over the area Monday and Tuesday before another
weather system arrives around the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Radar this evening shows
rain spreading along the coast as a frontal system approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Rain at times tonight with mountain snow (snow
levels 1500-2000 feet) into early Sunday morning. A Winter Storm
Warning in effect for the mountains through Sunday. Temperatures
tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s.

Sunday will feature strong winds for Whatcom and the San Juan`s
as Fraser Outflow develops late Sunday afternoon with BLI- YWL
gradients 21-23 mb. Winds will be rather gusty through Monday as
gradients stay elevated with high pressure positioned over British
Columbia for offshore, easterly flow.

Lowland snow potential Sunday as cold air filters into Western
Washington from north to south during the afternoon and overnight
hours. However, there are a few uncertainties surrounding how
widespread snow will be as well as exact amounts, especially
across portions of the central Puget Sound. Lowland rain Sunday
morning will transition to wet snow initially for Whatcom County
Sunday afternoon as cold air filters into this area. The exact
track of the low pressure system will impact the timing of the
transition of rain to snow for northern areas, with most guidance
highlighting a track along Vancouver Island and into the Northern
Inland waters by Sunday afternoon. Snow levels will lower Sunday
evening into Sunday night as cold air filters elsewhere across
Western Washington and an arctic front slides through. Rain
showers will transition to light snow for most by Sunday evening.
Another uncertain aspect to the forecast is a possible Puget
Sound Convergence Zone - which some hi-res guidance does have
developing. Guidance has started to `converge` on the
King/Snohomish solution for the location of the possible PSCV.
With that said, if Fraser Outflow becomes the dominant mean for
convergence (rather than strong onshore push), it is possible the
PSCV is more progressive and develops farther south (near or
south of Seattle) with drier air over Western Washington. Still,
opting to go with King/Snohomish PSCV given the HREF short-range
forecasts, and will need to be monitored. Winter Storm Watch in
effect for much of the Puget Sound area with a trace-2" for most
(up to 4" in PSCV), and 2-6" for Whatcom/Foothills. Elevated
snowfall amounts will also be possible for the Strait of Juan de
Fuca in Clallam County depending on the timing of the Fraser
Outflow prior to drier air expected on Monday.

Precipitation (light snow) is expected to linger into Monday
morning for portions of the southern tier (south of Olympia) with
an additional trace-0.5" possible. Otherwise Monday will feature
colder temperatures across the area with highs in the 20s and 30s.
Fraser outflow winds through Monday for Whatcom/San Juan`s with
gusts up to 60 MPH possible.

Tuesday is expected to be dry for Western Washington with offshore
winds. The primary impact will be cold temperatures Tuesday with
highs sub-freezing for most. JD/33

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Western WA will continue to
see cold weather through next week. Lows will be in the teens to 20s
with highs only around 30 degrees. Our next system will clip the
region Wednesday and Thursday for another chance at lowlands snow
(across all of western WA). This may bring more widespread
snowfall amounts to the region - a more classic overrunning
pattern. The flow remains offshore through the end of the week as
snow levels remain low. Temperatures do moderate a bit as Fraser
outflow winds ease and temps by Friday may reach the low 40s.
However, as mentioned, we may still see a rain/snow mix in the
lowlands with low snow levels. The air mass will continue to
moderate on Saturday for mainly rain in the lowlands. 33

[Phil]

Puget Sound region.

 

Last night's ECMWF showed 41 at SEA today... it was 46.

 

I am being conservative saying 3 degrees.

SEA is UHI dog s**t.

[Jesse]

37 here and had an official splat test when I was driving home. Looks like the swamp “might” get an inch or two... maybe.

I’ve never understood why you call your area the swamp. You’re sitting at close to 600ft. That’s higher than the majority of posters in the western lowlands I would guess.

[TT-SEA]

I’m pretty sure all models run a cool bias for that SEA UHI hot box. Trash location for a station. #FakeWarmth

Pretty sure we don't have much UHI effect when with strong SW wind and rain like today.

 

ECMWF was still way too cool. It happens all the time.

[Timmy]

[GHweatherChris]

Let's not post an entire NWS discussion please or quote one. Thanks, everyone.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF last night showed upper 30s in the Snoqualmie Valley today... actual high was 42.

 

No UHI out here.

[bainbridgekid]

Puget Sound region.

 

Last night's ECMWF showed 41 at SEA today... it was 46.

 

I am being conservative saying 3 degrees.

I don't remember it being too cold last February.

 

Granted, we had heavy snowcover throughout that event.

[Phil]

Pretty sure we don't have much UHI effect when with a strong SW wind and rain like today.

 

ECMWF was still way too cool. It happens all the time.

Wind blowing off the 46*F water, then, since the sound is to the west of the sensor.

 

You never reference Tacoma or any of the other non-UHI stations but pimp the life out of your favorite urban concrete jungle stations. Just saying.

[Weiner Warrior]

SEA NWS Discussion from 9 p.m.

 

SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds, rain and heavy mountain snow will

continue tonight with strong onshore flow. Fraser River outflow

winds will develop Sunday and the snow level will fall to sea

level as the cold air pushes south through Sunday evening .Cold,

dry air will be over the area Monday and Tuesday before another

weather system arrives around the middle of the week.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Radar this evening shows

rain spreading along the coast as a frontal system approaches the

Pacific Northwest. Rain at times tonight with mountain snow (snow

levels 1500-2000 feet) into early Sunday morning. A Winter Storm

Warning in effect for the mountains through Sunday. Temperatures

tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s.

 

Sunday will feature strong winds for Whatcom and the San Juan`s

as Fraser Outflow develops late Sunday afternoon with BLI- YWL

gradients 21-23 mb. Winds will be rather gusty through Monday as

gradients stay elevated with high pressure positioned over British

Columbia for offshore, easterly flow.

 

Lowland snow potential Sunday as cold air filters into Western

Washington from north to south during the afternoon and overnight

hours. However, there are a few uncertainties surrounding how

widespread snow will be as well as exact amounts, especially

across portions of the central Puget Sound. Lowland rain Sunday

morning will transition to wet snow initially for Whatcom County

Sunday afternoon as cold air filters into this area. The exact

track of the low pressure system will impact the timing of the

transition of rain to snow for northern areas, with most guidance

highlighting a track along Vancouver Island and into the Northern

Inland waters by Sunday afternoon. Snow levels will lower Sunday

evening into Sunday night as cold air filters elsewhere across

Western Washington and an arctic front slides through. Rain

showers will transition to light snow for most by Sunday evening.

Another uncertain aspect to the forecast is a possible Puget

Sound Convergence Zone - which some hi-res guidance does have

developing. Guidance has started to `converge` on the

King/Snohomish solution for the location of the possible PSCV.

With that said, if Fraser Outflow becomes the dominant mean for

convergence (rather than strong onshore push), it is possible the

PSCV is more progressive and develops farther south (near or

south of Seattle) with drier air over Western Washington. Still,

opting to go with King/Snohomish PSCV given the HREF short-range

forecasts, and will need to be monitored. Winter Storm Watch in

effect for much of the Puget Sound area with a trace-2" for most

(up to 4" in PSCV), and 2-6" for Whatcom/Foothills. Elevated

snowfall amounts will also be possible for the Strait of Juan de

Fuca in Clallam County depending on the timing of the Fraser

Outflow prior to drier air expected on Monday.

 

Precipitation (light snow) is expected to linger into Monday

morning for portions of the southern tier (south of Olympia) with

an additional trace-0.5" possible. Otherwise Monday will feature

colder temperatures across the area with highs in the 20s and 30s.

Fraser outflow winds through Monday for Whatcom/San Juan`s with

gusts up to 60 MPH possible.

 

Tuesday is expected to be dry for Western Washington with offshore

winds. The primary impact will be cold temperatures Tuesday with

highs sub-freezing for most. JD/33

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Western WA will continue to

see cold weather through next week. Lows will be in the teens to 20s

with highs only around 30 degrees. Our next system will clip the

region Wednesday and Thursday for another chance at lowlands snow

(across all of western WA). This may bring more widespread

snowfall amounts to the region - a more classic overrunning

pattern. The flow remains offshore through the end of the week as

snow levels remain low. Temperatures do moderate a bit as Fraser

outflow winds ease and temps by Friday may reach the low 40s.

However, as mentioned, we may still see a rain/snow mix in the

lowlands with low snow levels. The air mass will continue to

moderate on Saturday for mainly rain in the lowlands. 33

This is a big one

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, the UHI has really gotten out of control at that station. Main reason the add three degrees thing works so well there.

Last night's ECMWF showed 41 for Bellingham... it was 44 there today. It usually runs 3 degrees too cool for BLI as well.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I’ve never understood why you call your area the swamp. You’re sitting at close to 600ft. That’s higher than the majority of posters in the western lowlands I would guess.

I am only a few miles from there, and it is a joke, a tease more than anything, and often my snow is the same and even less than Puyallup when East winds kick in.   My altitude is not always a factor but sometimes it is. Again, it is all in fun. And I am 520’ at my location. 

[Jesse]

SEA NWS Discussion from 9 p.m.

 

SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds, rain and heavy mountain snow will

continue tonight with strong onshore flow. Fraser River outflow

winds will develop Sunday and the snow level will fall to sea

level as the cold air pushes south through Sunday evening .Cold,

dry air will be over the area Monday and Tuesday before another

weather system arrives around the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Radar this evening shows

rain spreading along the coast as a frontal system approaches the

Pacific Northwest. Rain at times tonight with mountain snow (snow

levels 1500-2000 feet) into early Sunday morning. A Winter StormWarning in effect for the mountains through Sunday. Temperatures

tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s.

Sunday will feature strong winds for Whatcom and the San Juan`s

as Fraser Outflow develops late Sunday afternoon with BLI- YWL

gradients 21-23 mb. Winds will be rather gusty through Monday as

gradients stay elevated with high pressure positioned over British

Columbia for offshore, easterly flow.

Lowland snow potential Sunday as cold air filters into Western

Washington from north to south during the afternoon and overnight

hours. However, there are a few uncertainties surrounding how

widespread snow will be as well as exact amounts, especially

across portions of the central Puget Sound. Lowland rain Sunday

morning will transition to wet snow initially for Whatcom County

Sunday afternoon as cold air filters into this area. The exact

track of the low pressure system will impact the timing of the

transition of rain to snow for northern areas, with most guidance

highlighting a track along Vancouver Island and into the Northern

Inland waters by Sunday afternoon. Snow levels will lower Sunday

evening into Sunday night as cold air filters elsewhere across

Western Washington and an arctic front slides through. Rain

showers will transition to light snow for most by Sunday evening.

Another uncertain aspect to the forecast is a possible Puget

Sound Convergence Zone - which some hi-res guidance does have

developing. Guidance has started to `converge` on the

King/Snohomish solution for the location of the possible PSCV.

With that said, if Fraser Outflow becomes the dominant mean forconvergence (rather than strong onshore push), it is possible the

PSCV is more progressive and develops farther south (near or

south of Seattle) with drier air over Western Washington. Still,

opting to go with King/Snohomish PSCV given the HREF short-range

forecasts, and will need to be monitored. Winter Storm Watch in

effect for much of the Puget Sound area with a trace-2" for most

(up to 4" in PSCV), and 2-6" for Whatcom/Foothills. Elevated

snowfall amounts will also be possible for the Strait of Juan de

Fuca in Clallam County depending on the timing of the FraserOutflow prior to drier air expected on Monday.

Precipitation (light snow) is expected to linger into Monday

morning for portions of the southern tier (south of Olympia) with

an additional trace-0.5" possible. Otherwise Monday will feature

colder temperatures across the area with highs in the 20s and 30s.

Fraser outflow winds through Monday for Whatcom/San Juan`s with

gusts up to 60 MPH possible.

Tuesday is expected to be dry for Western Washington with offshore

winds. The primary impact will be cold temperatures Tuesday with

highs sub-freezing for most. JD/33

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Western WA will continue to

see cold weather through next week. Lows will be in the teens to 20s

with highs only around 30 degrees. Our next system will clip the

region Wednesday and Thursday for another chance at lowlands snow

(across all of western WA). This may bring more widespread

snowfall amounts to the region - a more classic overrunning

pattern. The flow remains offshore through the end of the week as

snow levels remain low. Temperatures do moderate a bit as Fraseroutflow winds ease and temps by Friday may reach the low 40s.

However, as mentioned, we may still see a rain/snow mix in the

lowlands with low snow levels. The air mass will continue to

moderate on Saturday for mainly rain in the lowlands. 33

Why does it end with a 33?

[Skagit Weather]

Let's not post an entire NWS discussion please or quote one. Thanks, everyone.

 

How else are we going to get another 223 pages to match the length of part 1?

[mtep]

Not exactly the greatest snowfall totals on tap here, either. The real fun starts juuuuust north of me. So close, yet so far.

 

Hope for a model bust. Happens, particularly with lowland snow.

What area of bham are you in? I'm just east of I5 at about 200'. Hoping that once it starts we can squeeze the most out of it to put a good layer of white on everything for a few days.

[Timmy]

Not that I'm the final word, but I personally I don't see where its a problem as long has he recognizes its a PNW forum.....hell we have someone from Maryland and someone from Colorado posting here, Bozeman MT, and probably a couple of other places I am not aware of. Anyway, they throw out the occasional observation about their area and its no bid deal. So maybe chill out and lay off the guy!

 

He's kinda screwed regarding the forum for his location, and as this current weather cycle perfectly illustrates, the PNW is a particularly challenging place to forecast at times, which is a weather weenies paradise!

 

 

I think he had the perfect suggestion that if you really have a problem with it this forum is conveniently equipped with an "ignore" feature.

He isn’t the same as front ranger, Phil or Kayla. They don’t often post about their weather and add to discussion (even though Phil speaks another language). AJ could get there but it would take some changes. I could ignore, sure, but if we set a precedent that it’s fine for people all over to post their obs and confusing model run takes, I think we can all agree that is not good for discussion here...

[jakeinthevalley]

Before the 6z NAMMY starts what's everyone having for late night snacks?

Smoked clam dip and homemade pita chips chased with a spicy red beer.

[Weiner Warrior]

Why does it end with a 33?

Because that's going to be the temp on wednesday but be sure to add 3 because of the 3 degree bias

[Skagit Weather]

Why does it end with a 33?

 

I think that has something to do with the 3 degree cold bias for surface level temps on the Euro, but I'm not exactly sure.

[TT-SEA]

Wind blowing off the 46*F water, then, since the sound is to the west of the sensor.

 

You never reference Tacoma or any of the other non-UHI stations but pimp the life out of your favorite urban concrete jungle stations. Just saying.

Just gave an example from BLI. Sensor there is close to the water as well.

[Jesse]

Because that's going to be the temp on wednesday but be sure to add 3 because of the 3 degree bias

Well played sir....well played.