Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Why do you get so defensive? It is so weird.

I don't care at all. Its weather maps on a weather forum.

[Weiner Warrior]

We should all head up to Tim's house. That area in North Bend usually gets nailed because of elevation

[FroYoBro]

[Jesse]

Troll

Warmer runs ahead ya little dummies! LOL

[Gradient Keeper]

The biggest takeaway is now there is a low Monday night-Tuesday popping up on the GFS, WRF, ECMWF, (GEM?) and all models tonight from their previous runs shifted the low south for Wednesday-Thursday.

 

[GHweatherChris]

I don't care at all. Its weather maps on a weather forum.

If that is the real case, post the maps without extra comments. Also, you have zero proof I was talking about you on my post so...

[Jesse]

The biggest takeaway is now there is a low Monday night-Tuesday popping up on the GFS, WRF, ECMWF, (GEM?) and all models tonight from their previous runs shifted the low south for Wednesday-Thursday.

 

Yes, this is potentially very big news for next week.

[TT-SEA]

Pushing 50 by Saturday... maybe warmer Sunday.

 

Debating whether to post the maps. Certain weather data seems to be a really sensitive issue for some.

[van city]

Yay pretty colors are back!

 

Cool. It trend North by Wednesday.

[bainbridgekid]

If that is the real case, post the maps without extra comments. Also, you have zero proof I was talking about you on my post so...

Drop it.

[Requiem]

Yes, this is potentially very big news for next week.

 

Looks like 3-6 inches around the metro area is possible from the late-week low, not taking into account the possible snow from this new Tuesday system. May be fun, we'll see

 

Bit excited now.

[TT-SEA]

If that is the real case, post the maps without extra comments. Also, you have zero proof I was talking about you on my post so...

 

No way dude.   That is what we all enjoy doing.   Analyzing weather maps is what we do.   

 

Although I did post the temp maps that Randy specifically requested with no comment at all.  

[Gradient Keeper]

If only that PV lobe could nose more to the southwest the next 3-4 runs.. It is obscenely cold right near the Canadian border. C'MON!!!!

[Jesse]

Drop it.

Hey guys time to drop it, ok.

[GHweatherChris]

Drop it.

Whoa, are you an admin?

[Cloud]

Glad things are actually going in the right direction at the home stretch. Yesterday some of y'all were saying it'd be impossible to get better and it'd only get worse

Things are coming more slightly into focus but there is still a lot of uncertainty with track of the low. This is is obviously being heavily influenced by the PV in BC. At 3 days out, it there are still a lot of fluctuations with the PV and how much cold air is pouring south. At the 500mb level, tonight’s run look different than last night’s at the same hour. This kind of fluctuations with the PV alters the track of the low.

 

It looks colder on this run and my guess is it will continue to do so. We’ll see.

[Deweydog]

I am going to continue to look at model runs as they are released by the various providers.

 

And I’m going to kill Tim.

 

Not necessarily in that order.

[Phil]

How would you know it doesn’t happen there if you don’t even know what it is?

Kaboom.

[Jesse]

I am going to continue to look at model runs as they are released the various providers.

And I’m going to kill Tim.

Not necessarily in that order.

Everyone here is such a meanie to him. And to add insult to injury he does NOTHING to deserve it.

[jcmcgaffey]

The NWS should put together a short video on how they analyze a situation like this. It could be short compiled clips over a 5-6 day period. It would be very interesting cause I feel like half the time they are the opposite of what a lot of folks on this forum are saying.

[FroYoBro]

Everyone here is such a meanie to him. And to add insult to injury he does NOTHING to deserve it.

Drop it.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Nice to see the models trend so much better since this morning. Hope to keep up the momentum.

[TT-SEA]

Everyone here is such a meanie to him. And to add insult to injury he does NOTHING to deserve it.

OMG. Do you have anything else you think about? You are obsessed.

 

My goal is not to troll on here. It's hopefully to contribute in a meaningful way and debate weather and weather related topics. No to trash people for their preferences... or be rude and insulting. That is a waste of time.

 

I do troll sometimes. We all do. Let it go. It's not that a big of a deal. It's a weather forum.

[Cloud]

If only that PV lobe could nose more to the southwest the next 3-4 runs.. It is obscenely cold right near the Canadian border. C'MON!!!!

This may be a last minute turnabout to some of the earlier resolutions. I have no evidence of this, but it’s been done before.

[Phil]

Phil?

Nah, I’m Daniel1.

[Requiem]

 

NAVGEM--- not a great model but FWIW ig

[Gradient Keeper]

I am going to continue to look at model runs as they are released the various providers.

 

And I’m going to kill Tim.

 

Not necessarily in that order.

You should also ask his wife to make you a sandwich. At some point. Not in that order perhaps. Oh, and throw his fake tree in the garbage. #REALtrees4LIFE

 

SNOW!

 

6z NAM in 41 minutes

6z GFS in 2 hours 33 minutes

[MossMan]

I noticed the birds really started devouring the bird seed yesterday...They know it’s coming!

 

Just hit 34.9 degrees.

.73” on the day.

[Jesse]

This may be a last minute turnabout to some of the earlier resolutions. I have no evidence of this, but it’s been done before.

I was thinking the same thing. Wouldn’t be the first time in the last year that we’ve seen things back off in the mid range only to trend a little better in the home stretch.

[Skagit Weather]

Almost half inch of rain today bumps me up past 3" on the month. Wetter than November and moving me in the direction of December (which had 4"). Currently 38F.

[Jesse]

Rain getting chillier out there. Down to 41.

 

Fun to think that there may be wet flakes in the air at points as soon as tomorrow night. We are finally getting there.

[TT-SEA]

I believe almost every day on the 00Z ECMWF is warmer at the 850mb level than the 00Z run last night that set off the mass depression on here.

 

The models are not turning colder. It's just people expectations have changed.

[bainbridgekid]

Whoa, are you an admin?

Your criticism was absurd.

 

This forum would be terrible if it was just model maps without people's analysis/interpretation.

 

Silly to keep talking about it though. It's gonna snow!

[Requiem]

Quite interesting that WRF and EURO show 2-5 inches of snow for PDX Monday. Thinking that it could be a good setup for hilly areas, maybe wet accumulation. Thursday still looks good for 3-6 inches city-wide perhaps. We'll see, but I'm a bit more excited. Feel free to yell at me if I'm wrong ro be excited though haha

[Phil]

does the bigmac guy still post here?

Big Mac lmao.

 

I think Bryant went by the username TheNewBigMack back in the day.

[ShawniganLake]

Disappointing model trends for up this way today. Really cutting back on what was looking like a very snowy week. Maybe things will trend back north again. Hopefully there is some snow for everyone when the outflow kicks in tomorrow

[Jesse]

Your criticism was absurd.

This forum would be terrible if it was just model maps without people's analysis/interpretation.

Silly to keep talking about it though. It's gonna snow!

Just drop it guys. Back to weather. Some places are less than 24 hours away from snow!

[GHweatherChris]

Your criticism was absurd.

 

This forum would be terrible if it was just model maps without people's analysis/interpretation.

 

Silly to keep talking about it though. It's gonna snow!

Your comment was absurd. And you are right, bring on the snow!

[Gradient Keeper]

Watch the PV ends up shifting south and we end up brutally cold, but dry, the polar jet suppresses the storm track aiming into northern-central California. Block breaks down and ridging drifts overhead leading to insane cold pool. LOL :lol: