Blizzard777 Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Going Dowwwwnnnnn....“The Big Dip” DQ ice cream? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 The ECMWF continues to look poised for a reload fairly quickly after the intital cold shot as well. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Looks chilly at least in the first half of next week. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 It's not a pattern that would bring highs below the upper 30's unless the anafront held North during the day Sunday to keep synoptic precip falling. Highs near 40 with convective snow showers and a convergence zone would make for a plenty interesting day too though. The Euro would be especially snowy for the Coast in that cold onshore flow. It actually shows coastal snowfall down to southern OR. I'll bet it won't be long before this forum is buzzing again. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 From a winter weather perspective... the 12Z ECMWF would basically be a non-event. A couple 40/26 type days with sunshine. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Good greif. The East gets torched yet again on this run. I did not see that coming this winter. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 It actually shows coastal snowfall down to southern OR. I'll bet it won't be long before this forum is buzzing again. I am not sure about that... this looks like nothing compared to the lead up to the last event. People are pretty burned out and this looks like a fairly run-of-the-mill chilly period. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 The ECMWF continues to look poised for a reload fairly quickly after the intital cold shot as well. Not sure about that either... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Conflicting reports 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 I am not sure about that... this looks like nothing compared to the lead up to the last event. People are pretty burned out and this looks like a fairly run-of-the-mill chilly period. yeah...unless something drastic changes it looks like some high temps in the upper 30s to around 40 with some sunshine and frosty mornings. Kind of similar to this last November. I definitely don’t see much to be excited about in terms of seeing snow below 1000’. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Hopefully the GFS will reach an agreement on the MJO soon. That has really been the driver this winter. Right now they are a lot different from each other. The GFS will get to the coveted octant 5, but it just takes longer than the ECMWF. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 yeah...unless something drastic changes it looks like some high temps in the upper 30s to around 40 with some sunshine and frosty mornings. Kind of similar to this last November. I definitely don’t see much to be excited about in terms of seeing snow below 1000’. We'll see. The last one kind of fizzled for most areas in the home stretch. A lot of recent cold snaps have gone the other way in the home stretch. I think the ECMWF runs are a step beyond typical fare. We have a Kona low involved for one. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1013 Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 30% chance of snow here over the next 16 days according to the EPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 From a winter weather perspective... the 12Z ECMWF would basically be a non-event. A couple 40/26 type days with sunshine. You have a different definition of a Winter event due to your elevation. Nobody is expecting a snowstorm or arctic air, but we are happy to have something to track right now. 850mb temps of -9 in onshore flow would bring some lowland snow. I am not sure about that... this looks like nothing compared to the lead up to the last event. People are pretty burned out and this looks like a fairly run-of-the-mill chilly period.This is nothing like the last event and no one has implied it is. That was a legit arctic airmass 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 ECMWF has a well known cut-off bias... as I am reminded of frequently here. So I suspect it will be a little more progressive than what is shown now... probably a compromise with the GFS. As it is... the best thing about the 12Z ECMWF is a chance for dry weather and clear skies which is has been virtually impossible to achieve for almost 2 months now.The GFS has a well documented progressive/zonal bias in the medium range. It’s at least equal in “amplitude” to the ECMWF’s cutoff bias at this time of year, possibly even more problematic. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 This ECMWF run still spits out a 39-25 day for SEA. A good 10 to 12 degrees below normal. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 We'll see. The last one kind of fizzled for most areas in the home stretch. A lot of recent cold snaps have gone the other way in the home stretch. I think the ECMWF runs are a step beyond typical fare. We have a Kona low involved for one. hopefully you’re right and we see some snow next month. There’s a few details that have to change/improve for us to have a good shot at snow and cold...hopefully they do and these runs are the start of something interesting. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 You have a different definition of a Winter event due to your elevation. Nobody is expecting a snowstorm, but we are happy to have something to track right now. 850mb temps of -9 in onshore flow would bring some lowland snow. This is nothing like the last event and no one has implied it is. That was a legit arctic airmass This could easily evolve into something quite good though. The pieces will be there. I can't understand not being intrigued right now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 You have a different definition of a Winter event due to your elevation. Nobody is expecting a snowstorm, but we are happy to have something to track right now. 850mb temps of -9 in onshore flow would bring some lowland snow. This is nothing like the last event and no one has implied it is. That was a legit arctic airmassFair enough. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 The GFS has a well documented progressive/zonal bias in the medium range. It’s at least equal in “amplitude” to the ECMWF’s cutoff bias at this time of year, possibly even more problematic. And that is certainly the issue we are dealing with on next weekend's trough right now. The GFS just blows it right through. The ECMWF really shuts down the Pacific by early next week. A log jam of blocking features. I hope we can completely shut it down and give the whole country a nice February. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 And that is certainly the issue we are dealing with on next weekend's trough right now. The GFS just blows it right through. The ECMWF really shuts down the Pacific by early next week. A log jam of blocking features.Likely will be a compromise. Not as cold as the ECMWF and not as progressive as the GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1013 Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 12z ECMWF has an inch of snow here!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 12Z EPS at day 8... actually a little more progressive than the 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Day 10 per the 12Z EPS... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Ridge off the PNW coast is a little stronger on the 12Z EPS compared to the 00Z run on days 10 and 11. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 FWIW... the EPS control run is actually quite close to the GFS early next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 12Z EPS at day 12: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 FWIW... the EPS control run is actually quite close to the GFS early next week. Winter is over! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 The EPS mean is about a degree colder early next week on the 850s. Seattle bottoms out around 9C below normal. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1013 Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Day 10 per the 12Z EPS... Have to say this looks pretty terrific for me. Snow cover at the local ski valley is kind of getting ripped to shreds by this dry heatwave we’ve been having, down to a 24” base now, hopefully this pattern can deliver some kind of cold wet system. Snow down here in the city would be a bonus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Some hints at retrogression by day 13 on the 12Z EPS... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Some hints at retrogression by day 13 on the 12Z EPS... This is going to turn out very poorly for me...And Snowmizer. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 12Z EPS 10-15 day mean: But... at day 15 its clearly retrograding: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 12Z EPS 10-15 day mean: But... at day 15 its clearly retrograding: We need to speed up the timing, have a great blast starting around the 6th with a Melt-A-Thon commencing by the 15th!!!!!! Then a reload on the 23rd! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 12z ECMWF has an inch of snow here!!Did Tim agree to this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Debbie is back!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 RIP Kobe Bryant. Hold your loved ones close and live life to the fullest. You never know how long you got. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Wow....Kobe Bryant's dead. That's crazy, I know how big of a figure he was in the basketball scene. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 Wow helicopter crash...41 years old. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 26, 2020 Report Share Posted January 26, 2020 12Z EPS 10-15 day mean: But... at day 15 its clearly retrograding: still potential for something in February we will see! Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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