Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still almost 60F here. What a disaster.

[GHweatherChris]

Chilly trough next weekend.

Decent snow chance up here this weekend.

[Requiem]

Wind hitting hard in Tacoma the last 20-30 minutes. Gusting 45-50mph.

 

That's so cool, enjoy! Take a few videos maybe (it's pretty dark though so maybe not).

[Blizzard777]

Wow!! That gust had to of been nearing 60MPH! Rocked the house big time!

Those are adrenaline gust!!!   No thank you for my fir trees 

[TT-SEA]

Still almost 60F here. What a disaster.

So 55 would be different?

 

It's been a warm and wet pattern.

[HighlandExperience]

00z GFS definitely a little better in some spots vs. 18z.

 

Big improvement for Central Sound. Hope that countinues

[GHweatherChris]

[Requiem]

So 55 would be different?

 

It's been a warm and wet pattern.

 

Not too wet down there, I don't think. Lack of excitement with some warmth is what he's getting at, I think.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another nice trough on day 10.

[HighlandExperience]

ww_snowacc.48.0000.gif

Thankfully the WRF is mostly wrong

[TT-SEA]

Another nice trough on day 10.

GFS sticking to its guns.

[GHweatherChris]

Thankfully the WRF is mostly wrong

Sometimes it is right, the good thing is both major models continue to show snow falling which leaves the door open for surprise totals!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Outstanding GFS run.

[bainbridgekid]

Thankfully the WRF is mostly wrong

That's only through 4 PM Sunday.

 

Our best chance at snow is Sunday night.

[HighlandExperience]

Outstanding GFS run.

After all this rain we deserve snow

[Blizzard777]

That's so cool, enjoy! Take a few videos maybe (it's pretty dark though so maybe not).

Paranormal or K12 special!

thought I had my cans in a safe spot

trim.063F5558-2158-4628-A304-8B77FF63CFE6.MOV

[GHweatherChris]

Kuchera snowfall maps aside, 925s are shown to be -3c and 850s are -7/-8c. Not bad. But the GFS also shows a south wind up the Puget Sound until Monday morning and surface temps in the low/mid 30s. Doesn't sound like 2+ inches of snow to me.

 

I suppose if things get convective enough it might help accumulation but generally in these types of borderline situations, I tend to err on the side of lower totals.Thinking trace to 1, maybe 2 inches in some foothill spots.

 

After this month's earlier "event", I am sticking with the side of climo. Figure I can't lose too many battles this way.

Things look more convective out this way for sure.

[MossMan]

Wind continues up here...And the outages are still climbing.

[Esquimalt]

Kuchera snowfall maps aside, 925s are shown to be -3c and 850s are -7/-8c. Not bad. But the GFS also shows a south wind up the Puget Sound until Monday morning and surface temps in the low/mid 30s. Doesn't sound like 2+ inches of snow to me.

 

I suppose if things get convective enough it might help accumulation but generally in these types of borderline situations, I tend to err on the side of lower totals.Thinking trace to 1, maybe 2 inches in some foothill spots. 

 

After this month's earlier "event", I am sticking with the side of climo. Figure I can't lose too many battles this way.

Do you have the snow maps through Wednesday?  Just wondering how much I'll get from the Tuesday event. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Almost February, (or Febuary, as some people call it)

[Slushy Inch]

I’d like to take this GFs run to the bank please and have it verify. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020020100/gfs_z500a_namer_54.png

[umadbro]

Are we doing the thing where we talk about what the GFS is advertising more than 7 days out only to see it not come close to verifying again?

[MossMan]

Are we doing the thing where we talk about what the GFS is advertising more than 7 days out only to see it not come close to verifying again?

Yes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Big snow storm the day I fly out. SHITT.

[Slushy Inch]

Are we doing the thing where we talk about what the GFS is advertising more than 7 days out only to see it not come close to verifying again?

Yeah I did, what are you going to do about it? It goes to 384 hours for a reason doesn’t it? When you see a solution in the models it increases the chance of that happening.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gusting 50mph+ at times and flickering lights.

[Cloud]

Look like it’s calm down a little at BFI. Got up to 36mph gust earlier

[Requiem]

Gusting 50mph+ at times and flickering lights.

Whew, 50+?

[Phil]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Forks is 31.58 ytd on rain. Amazing

[TacomaWaWx]

Whew, 50+?

yeah...seems stronger than anticipated given the -14mb PDX BLI gradient it makes sense.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

21.02 inches of rain here this month. Most I've ever recorded here In a month.

[TT-SEA]

21.02 inches of rain here this month. Most I've ever recorded here In a month.

Making up new creative stats like monthly rainfall? You guys always come up with something to make it seem wet. It's actually seemed about normal in terms of rain this month and since meteorological winter began.

[Requiem]

yeah...seems stronger than anticipated given the -14mb PDX BLI gradient it makes sense.

Wow, not a lick of wind here.

[Esquimalt]

[TT-SEA]

[SouthHillFrosty]

Forks is 31.58 ytd on rain. Amazing

384 hour Kuchera snow map time.

the swamp snow hole doing its thing

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Making up new creative stats like monthly rainfall? You guys always come up with something to make it seem wet. It's actually seemed about normal in terms of rain this month and since meteorological winter began.

way more rain than I like. It's been ridiculous. Need some sun to dry the place out for sure.

[Front Ranger]

Outstanding GFS run.

Too bad it's the GFS.

[AJ1013]

66/32 and blue skies today. Decent winter weather for here. Current forecast is for 78/49 and sun on Sunday before a potent front blasts through. Monday will be 57/32 and very windy with showers. 44/26 on Tuesday with a chance of morning snow