Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[wxmet]

Times like this make me wish I was back in the east coast. It’s such a struggle to get meaningful snowfall here in the past few years that I’ve lived here.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Portland still rainy.

[Deweydog]

I believe he would do so while quoting from the Book of Ecclesiastes.

The lack of sufficient blocking in AK during this event is clearly a sign of the end times. Repent.

[HighlandExperience]

Times like this make me wish I was back in the east coast. It’s such a struggle to get meaningful snowfall here in the past few years that I’ve lived here.

You live in DT Seattle right? Probably one of the worse locations for snow.

[wxmet]

You live in DT Seattle right? Probably one of the worse locations for snow.

I used to. I live in West Seattle with almost 300 ft of elevation.

[FroYoBro]

Up to 38 now. Might get a high below 40 here if we try really hard. 

[GHweatherChris]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20200113_103531.jpg

 

SCORE

[snow_wizard]

Times like this make me wish I was back in the east coast. It’s such a struggle to get meaningful snowfall here in the past few years that I’ve lived here.

 

Last winter was pretty epic.

[seattleweatherguy]

snowing again here

[snow_wizard]

20200113_103531.jpg

 

About what we have here.  I picked up an inch with that last round.  Tonight looks pretty interesting for sure.

[wxmet]

Last winter was pretty epic.

It was ok. I’m used to 1-2 ft storms lol.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Surprising amount of volcanoes erupting recently.

 

Last Tuesday the Shishaldin volcano erupted in Alaska. Last Thursday Mexico's Popocatepetl volcano erupted. South America's Sabancaya volcano also shot ash 24,000 feet into the sky in Peru. Then on Sunday the Taal volcano in the Philippines erupted as well.

 

I wonder if all these eruptions will have any subdued effects on the weather moving forward.

Well that is one way to lower global temps.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It was ok. I’m used to 1-2 ft storms lol.

Depends on where you lived last feb. I had 48 inches in less than a week.

[GHweatherChris]

About what we have here. I picked up an inch with that last round. Tonight looks pretty interesting for sure.

Yea, this shower has put me at an inch now for this pattern, I definitely feel there is a good chance of more precip the next 24 hours than what is currently modeled.

[HighlandExperience]

It was ok. I’m used to 1-2 ft storms lol.

Where on east coast did you live though?

[tjb723]

Just chiming in to say we got about 4" overnight on the north side of Silverdale. Heard they got twice as much five miles away in Poulsbo and almost nothing in Bremerton, five miles in the other direction. Happy we got into the meat of the CZ for a little while. Temperature bottomed out at 30 and has since risen to 35, and the snow is starting to fall from trees now.

[weather_fan]

Has the arctic air reached Seattle?

[snow_wizard]

A little bit of evidence the ECMWF is underestimating the low level cold involved with this is the fact it is 4 F too warm on temps for this time at both Everett and Mount Vernon.  Should be a decent little cold surge for Seattle when the gradients go northerly around 4 to 6pm.  

[seattleweatherguy]

snow is coming down at a good pace

[Jesse]

Nice to see the Euro sticking with the idea of another chilly trough in the long range.

[joelgombiner]

Still southerly flow Seattle southward and northerly flow Everett northward... Should result in a nice convergence zone over the central sound, no? 

[snow_wizard]

Has the arctic air reached Seattle?

 

Not yet.  About Everett.  All models show north winds late this afternoon.

[Deweydog]

The Euro was WRONG!

[Jesse]

A little bit of evidence the ECMWF is underestimating the low level cold involved with this is the fact it is 4 F too warm on temps for this time at both Everett and Mount Vernon.  Should be a decent little cold surge for Seattle when the gradients go northerly around 4 to 6pm.

 

But if you add the three degrees it was only 1F too warm.

 

#euromaff

[wxmet]

Where on east coast did you live though?

Maryland

[TacomaWaWx]

So looking like Seattle south will get some snow mainly tonight?

[HighlandExperience]

Not yet. About Everett. All models show north winds late this afternoon.

We need those north winds to punch through before the next round of moisture arrives

[MossMan]

Here's a comparison of the 12z NAM, GFS, and Euro for totals from now through 10AM tomorrow.

 

 

 

If we could get the EURO to move that snow just slightly further north Jake and I would be in business!

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like precip is working its way north in SW WA.

[Jesse]

Pattern on the Euro days 9 and 10 could be a lot worse. More mountain snow, continued chilly pattern.

[Cloud]

Times like this make me wish I was back in the east coast. It’s such a struggle to get meaningful snowfall here in the past few years that I’ve lived here.

Our locations is probably one of the worst places to get snow when it comes to situation like this. Not much last night and is melting off, this morning was off and on flurry.

 

I’ve lived in the same location for 28 years now and kinda tired of it. I love this climate too much to go elsewhere but eventually I’ll move away from Seattle. Areas where I can score 6-8” during PSCZ.

[bainbridgekid]

 

NWS Seattle ignoring most models and calling for less than an inch most places.

 

 

January 13, 2020

 

They were also calling for less than an inch for Snohomish County and Everett as late as yesterday evening even once it was extremely obvious based on radar we would see a widespread 2-4". They're frequently wrong.

 

This time I agree with them though. Most places should see less than an inch.

[weather_fan]

KOMO and KIRO differ quite a bit in their forecasting. Who is more solid.

[Jesse]

KOMO and KIRO differ quite a bit in their forecasting. Who is more solid.

They are probably just following different models. So the question would be which model is more solid. And the answer would be the GFS.

[bainbridgekid]

Our locations is probably one of the worst places to get snow when it comes to situation like this. Not much last night and is melting off, this morning was off and on flurry.

 

I’ve lived in the same location for 28 years now and kinda tired of it. I love this climate too much to go elsewhere but eventually I’ll move away from Seattle. Areas where I can score 6-8” during PSCZ.

I highly recommend it. I'm pretty sure my area of South Everett averages close to a foot of snow a year. South Seattle and Downtown probably averages about a third of that.

 

It makes such a huge diifference to your psyche when your area almost always gets less snow. Makes what should be the happiest and most exciting weather of the year mostly a negative experience which is really sad when you think about it.

[jakerepp]

If we could get the EURO to move that snow just slightly further north Jake and I would be in business!

Hey but this Jake is in decent bizness as it is 

[bainbridgekid]

KOMO and KIRO differ quite a bit in their forecasting. Who is more solid.

Scott Sistek at Komo is generally excellent. He creates most of the forecasts, but not sure if he works weekends.

[jakerepp]

KOMO and Q13 are pretty similar to each other, and very different from KIRO and KING.

KOMO and KING, for example

 

[Perturbed Member]

Times like this make me wish I was back in the east coast. It’s such a struggle to get meaningful snowfall here in the past few years that I’ve lived here.

 

You don't have to go too far from either PDX or SEA to be in very snowy climates at least. 

 

I think at some point I will want to move up to 1000-1500 ft for the sake of my own sanity. I don't really think I'd want to live in a place where it snows all the time because then it loses that magic, however it is just too rare and difficult to get even 2-4 inches down here on a consistent basis.