Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[weather_fan]

Started to snow again in DT Seattle.

[Deweydog]

One thing to watch for Wednesday evening/night is the fact the GFS wants to bullseye some fairly decent frontogenesis over the metro area as it encounters the low level outflow. Can’t hurt despite the splitty nature of the system.

[Randyc321]

Snowing on Bainbridge again.

[Blizzard777]

Go North

Stop it!

[Jesse]

Yes. The MJO becomes unfavorable for a few weeks but mid-February presents another opportunity.

Something something sun angles.

 

Looking forward , one thing I’m really hoping for this year is a cold and wet spring. Especially the mid to late part of the spring. We are so overdue.

[Canadian guy]

This does have 2012 or 1996 feel to it with regards to crazy temperature gradient from south west bc compared to Washington and Oregon.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I really no want to relive last night again please! 

I feel confident you will not have too.. I am with you, last night was brutal! NO... SUCKED just watching it all fizzle and go away. This setup is much better for us and IS NOT convergence zone centric but more moisture spinning in over us centric. WAY better!  Lets see where we are 6 or 7 hours from now.

[TacomaWaWx]

Go North

North of Seattle already scored last night and this morning its our turn now!

[luvssnow_spokane]

North of Seattle already scored last night and this morning its our turn now!

YEs it is... IT IS COMING!!

**said sheepishly BUT boldly, while cowering in a corner, rubbing a lucky rabbits foot**

[TacomaWaWx]

I feel confident you will not have too.. I am with you, last night was brutal! NO... SUCKED just watching it all fizzle and go away. This setup is much better for us and IS NOT convergence zone centric but more moisture spinning in over us centric. WAY better!  Lets see where we are 6 or 7 hours from now.

We all should have known it was not going to make it south. I certainly wasn't anticipating it although I was watching i knew it'd fizzle. We've all been watching the c-zones for years it's a rare occurrence when it drops south of seattle. Either way it's our turn soon.

[Blizzard777]

I feel confident you will not have too.. I am with you, last night was brutal! NO... SUCKED just watching it all fizzle and go away. This setup is much better for us and IS NOT convergence zone centric but more moisture spinning in over us centric. WAY better!  Lets see where we are 6 or 7 hours from now.

Lol, I agree this would be far better for us!  Perhaps I take a nap now

[Chewbacca Defense]

Looks like things are maxing out at 18 for the day on my weather station.  It’s back down to 17, and presumably will keep dropping through the evening.

[Requiem]

This does have 2012 or 1996 feel to it with regards to crazy temperature gradient from south west bc compared to Washington and Oregon.

 

1996 and 2012 were good for snow here in Oregon though.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Snow is coming down at a good clip in West Seattle. Starting to stick to the grass and other cold surfaces. Currently 34

[jakerepp]

Stop it!

[Blizzard777]

We all should have known it was not going to make it south. I certainly wasn't anticipating it although I was watching i knew it'd fizzle. We've all been watching the c-zones for years it's a rare occurrence when it drops south of seattle. Either way it's our turn soon.

I had my eye on the modified arctic front! Expecting it to have a little punch as it dropped through our area.  Worth waiting up for but sucked when it just decided to meander about.  

[Jesse]

Snow is coming down at a good clip in West Seattle. Starting to stick to the grass and other cold surfaces. Currently 34

What about all of that ice?

[Timmy]

One thing to watch for Wednesday evening/night is the fact the GFS wants to bullseye some fairly decent frontogenesis over the metro area as it encounters the low level outflow. Can’t hurt despite the splitty nature of the system.

1-10-17?

[Deweydog]

1-10-17?

According to some lurker in La Pine, YES!

[FroYoBro]

Still 38. I'm guessing that will be the high for the day.

 

Pretty chilly, but still no fat rain sightings!

[TacomaWaWx]

I had my eye on the modified arctic front! Expecting it to have a little punch as it dropped through our area.  Worth waiting up for but sucked when it just decided to meander about.

 

good thing these next couple days have some decent chances for snow. I do think tonight might be our best night though.

[Canadian guy]

1996 and 2012 were good for snow here in Oregon though.

 

Dec 96....not Jan 96

[Requiem]

Dec 96....not Jan 96

 

Yeah, Dec was decent for the Portland area. Not snow, but certainly with winter weather. Lots of cold, east wind, and freezing rain.

[Blizzard777]

Winds just flipped to north at I-90, 80 minutes after shift at 520. Front moving south very slowly at only a couple of miles per hour right now. 

 

I agree for 10 points

according to the  local weather instruments!

[Esquimalt]

Dec 96....not Jan 96

Man Tuesday night has been looking good the past couple of RGEM runs

[El_Nina]

Moisture is moving out rapidly

[TacomaWaWx]

I agree for 10 points

according to the  local weather instruments!

looks like it is slowly slipping towards our neck of the woods.

[jakerepp]

My coworker just said it is 'Ice raining', so that's how my workday is going. 

[Canadian guy]

Man Tuesday night has been looking good the past couple of RGEM runs

Yes looks good!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Blizzard777]

My coworker just said it is 'Ice raining', so that's how my workday is going. 

Well I be darned..... Ice_is_everywhere

[Jesse]

[Omegaraptor]

Crazy winter so far. Now let’s hope this summer is even crazier with some wildfires down under style!

Hope we get lots of thunderstorms this spring and summer. Heat too, but unlike with heat I think we can all agree thunderstorms are pretty great.

[Phil]

Silver spring. “Used to” maybe be a bit of an exaggeration but compared to here it’s way less of a struggle to get moisture when the cold air arrives or is already in place.

Ha, man you were like 8 miles from me. That’s nuts!

[Randyc321]

Hard to believe with all the models technology a surprise snowfall can show up within 24hrs. Gfs looks good for Portland also.

 

 

This is why I laugh at the winter cancel comments and meltdowns.

 

We have no idea what is going to happen in FOUR hours.

 

Pick your favorite beverage or smoke-able and enjoy the evening unfolding.

 

                               *yeah, I know its early.  

[Phil]

Something something sun angles.

 

Looking forward , one thing I’m really hoping for this year is a cold and wet spring. Especially the mid to late part of the spring. We are so overdue.

It’s possible for sure, though in this particular year a wet/zonal spring might be followed by a hot summer given the nature of the system state that would produce said outcome.

 

If this spring isn’t cool/wet, there are probably a crapload of them in the pipeline down the road for other reasons, as one (or both) of the major low frequency ocean/atmosphere oscillations (PDO/AMO/etc) is likely to flip sharply by 2021/22 with the ENSO phase shift that occurs. This is assuming the “worst case” progression from here and that 2020/21 is a moderate El Niño.

[Randyc321]

I am not trying to pull a Snowwiz but I have a very strong feeling the entire puget sound is going to get some serious decent snow tonight. This setup is excellent for us, and current radar images match what the NAM is showing perfectly at this hour. IT IS COMING PUGET SOUNDERS.. Even the swamp should get in on this one!

 

 

I can't help but seeing this in my mind with Buddy the elf saying it with a huge grin plastered on his face.

 

"IT IS COMING PUGET SOUNDERS:"  Jumping up and down and clapping.

[Deweydog]

It’s possible for sure, though in this particular year a wet/zonal spring might be followed by a hot summer given the nature of the system state that would produce said outcome.

 

If this spring isn’t cool/wet, there are probably a crapload of them in the pipeline down the road for other reasons, as one (or both) of the major low frequency ocean/atmosphere oscillations (PDO/AMO/etc) is likely to flip sharply by 2021/22 with the ENSO phase shift that occurs. This is assuming the “worst case” progression from here and that 2020/21 is a moderate El Niño.

BIG CHANGES ON THE HORIZON.

[jakerepp]

Suddenly getting nuked by big wet flakes. Had been stuck in a drizzle/graupel limbo all day to this point. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Alright all you South Sound, waiting-up-for-snow-that-never-came-so-now-im-sleep-deprived folks (looking at you luvssnow, jgin, tacomawx), let's not count our chickens before they hatch!

 

This is a pretty new development. Can go either way. Very encouraging signs, but we won't know until we know. Should become more apparent one way or the other by 7PM. If by then things are looking good, then count all the d*mn chickens!  

I’m expecting 3 feet at least️