jaster220 Posted January 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 MPX upgraded to a warning. Gusts now increased up to 40mph during the storm. Gonna ‘work’ from home tomorrow. Love a windy snow fall. The backside looks interesting here Saturday night as well tho not much talk yet about that component of this storm. Congrats on yet another Warning. I will be surprised if I get an invite to that party. I only get invites when the party ends up getting cancelled Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 I believe I stay all snow with Euro. And I'm in the bullseye for IA anyway with 6+. Lock it in! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Upgraded to warning west of Ft Dodge now. I'd love to score a warning out of this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 I believe I stay all snow with Euro. And I'm in the bullseye for IA anyway with 6+. Lock it in!Any word on ratios down by you? Talk of 12-14:1 up this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 I'd be very happy with the 4 1/2" the Euro shows for MBY. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Any word on ratios down by you? Talk of 12-14:1 up this way. I checked Cobb output #'s for both CR and Waterloo and they both start around 14:1 and drop to 10:1 as the snow progresses. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Any word on ratios down by you? Talk of 12-14:1 up this way.Seems a little low but I dont get the retirement package---Scientific discussion... Friday`s snow ratios with this event will absolutely be worthwatching. With notably different temperatures profiles from southernto northern Iowa, snow ratios along and south of I-80 may be closerto the 5-7:1 range, whereas snow in northern Iowa may be closer tothe 12-15:1 range. Should this play out, the impacts would benotably different... especially given the strong winds in northernIowa. Prior to the transition to freezing precip, northern Iowa maycontend with notably more blowing snow than central/southern Iowa. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Any word on ratios down by you? Talk of 12-14:1 up this way.DMX said N IA should be 12-15:1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 What's up with the Euro? How does many parts of IA get more snow than the TC? I think the Euro is overrated. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011612&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 So now, only the GFS is still clinging to it's N and warm look on Saturday here. Even the ICON barely gets "non-snow" line into the most southern tier of counties. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 What's up with the Euro? How does many parts of IA get more snow than the TC? I think the Euro is overrated. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011612&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full Part of it probably has to do with the snow ratios. For example, look how much that changes things on the GFS... 10:1 Ratios: And then Kuchera Ratios: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Still think the euro has the right idea with a straight cutoff along the southern edge where ever it sets up....wouldnt be surprised to see it start drying out lower MI a bit tonight as well. 4-6 area wide with some higher totals of 6-8 is my final call 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just realized the DVN changed their Winter Storm Watch to 2-4" of snow instead of 3-5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 What's up with the Euro? How does many parts of IA get more snow than the TC? I think the Euro is overrated. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011612&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_fullEuro isn’t very good with smaller mesoscale features. We’re definitely in short term model mode now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Part of it probably has to do with the snow ratios. For example, look how much that changes things on the GFS... 10:1 Ratios: And then Kuchera Ratios: =aobve Your likely right. But my Pivota EUROl doesn't give me Kuchera0- just 10:1. u 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Des Moines considering upgrade to warnings, most likely hwy 20 north. Could be hwy 30 north. Should be out soon if they pull the trigger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 TWC just sucks guys. That's all there is to it. Accuweather is still worse. Their name should be inaccuweather. Actually I've not checked them out in maybe a few years and they might be more accurate by now. Haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Accuweather is still worse. Their name should be inaccuweather. Actually I've not checked them out in maybe a few years and they might be more accurate by now. Haha I think they got worse. But yeah, I learned a long time ago to not pay attention to either of those places. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Accuweather is still worse. Their name should be inaccuweather. Actually I've not checked them out in maybe a few years and they might be more accurate by now. HahaHaha innaccurateweather is what I've always called em 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 La Crosse just upgraded to warning 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 MKX AFD update at 12:34pm "Models are on track to bring the surface low across southern WISaturday morning. We are plugging in some new numbers butremaining conservative on amounts, and also working withneighboring offices to determine headlines. Updates will be out bymid afternoon." 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Still think the euro has the right idea with a straight cutoff along the southern edge where ever it sets up....wouldnt be surprised to see it start drying out lower MI a bit tonight as well. 4-6 area wide with some higher totals of 6-8 is my final call Why? trends have been the opposite actually. I'm not a Met so I haven't the science as to what the atmosphere may be doing to paint that picture but mostly I believe it's just a result of the colder/south trends making for less over-all liquid precip. The front-end thump is robust, then we get the backside with help from the lake, plus a little bit in between if I'm reading the 6 hr increments correctly. This is 10:1 for the full weekend. Pretty sure KCH would show a bit more, so this isn't the "weenie" map, lol 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 La Crosse just upgraded to warning LOL at no headlines east of the Mississippi Rvr. Boy have offices gotten gun shy in the wake of this winter and last weekend, yikes! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Haven't seen this in a LONG time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 I'm kinda riding the line down here. Not sure how much mixing I'll get. Sure is cold enough for snow right now! I had a low of exactly 0° this morning. Precipitation is really getting going in Tx. attm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Prolly wont affect the storm at all but today has been colder than forecasted. Only sitting at 4 right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Des Moines is always slow at updating Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 18z HRRR looks good for eastern Nebraska. Stays snow for most appreciable precipitation. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Winterstorm Watch issued for my area..........Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI237 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-171215-/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0002.200118T0500Z-200118T1700Z/Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe237 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING...* WHAT...Snow, heavy at times. Total accumulation of 4 to 7 inches. Snow may mix with sleet near the Ohio border.* WHERE...All of southeast Michigan.* WHEN...Late Friday night through noon Saturday.* IMPACTS...Snow-covered roads and limited visibility within heavy Snow Looks like I am getting All Snow!!!!!!! 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 LOL at no headlines east of the Mississippi Rvr. Boy have offices gotten gun shy in the wake of this winter and last weekend, yikes!Pssssst....you might wanna double check on that. Nevermind amigo, just saw that your area is under WWA...WATTTT??? Makes no sense...very ironic tbh!!! Wow........GRR needs to rethink this. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 DMX a bit concerned about power line issues with the wet snow and high wind plus any icing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 15z SREF 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Jaster buddy---did ya get invited?? No update yet. I'm expecting a WWA. They will say something like it's friday night, rain saturday blah blah blah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 15z SREFNice! And keep that mix south of me! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Nice! And keep that mix south of me!It's starting to look real nasty down my way, I may exceed 1/2 in of ice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Shocked that Des Moines included the metro in the warning! CYA is best reason in my opinion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 It's starting to look real nasty down my way, I may exceed 1/2 in of ice.What's your wind looking like? You could be pushing ice storm criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 18z NAM just decided to put a bullseye right over my house. 8.7" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 First winter storm warning of the season! 3-6....tenth of ice....up to 50mph wind Saturday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 12z EPS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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