jaster220 Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Looks like the second wave is becoming more influencial for us locally. Sure would like to see the trend back towards a grand finale of wave 3 but that is looking less likely. Who really knows?? Extreme model bouncing continues as now the GGEM has completely flipped back NW not unlike last night's 0z run. It was almost a complete whiff S today's 12z. TOL_Wx called it - nowcast (again) 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 We are getting some pretty good agreement from the models tonight. Now the UK is back nw a bit as well. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Hope everyone is having a great night. I am celebrating baby!!!! 00z Ukie 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Hope everyone is having a great night. I am celebrating baby!!!! 00z UkieWhat an incredible night, Chiefs all the way baby! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Hope everyone is having a great night. I am celebrating baby!!!! 00z UkieClinton-you do very well w this one. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 What an incredible night, Chiefs all the way baby! Great game. I was getting a little worry w the score early on tbh 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Congrats Clinton! Lions fans (I exclude myself, hehe) won't know that for a very long time!!! Model trends are good tonight as well. Hopeful you and I both see something good in this active pattern! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Models will come in consensus, especially by tomorrow as the event nears. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Congrats Clinton! Lions fans (I exclude myself, hehe) won't know that for a very long time!!! Model trends are good tonight as well. Hopeful you and I both see something good in this active pattern!Thanks the models seem to be trending back NW tonight. Have to admit the Chiefs had me worried a little, it felt like they were playing on quick sand all night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Models will come in consensus, especially by tomorrow as the event nears.We are going to score some snow I feel good about this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Thanks the models seem to be trending back NW tonight. Have to admit the Chiefs had me worried a little, it felt like they were playing on quick sand all night. Thats how I was seeing it as well. Thankfully, the big turn around occurred.....Phew! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 We are going to score some snow I feel good about this.Hopefully...the NW trends have begun. But, yep, I feel good about this storm as well. A lot of peeps on here do well...even, Andie and Oxwx will get in on the action. Wish those 2 luck down there btw. Hope they score. They deserve it. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Fits the theme of the season does it not? Mega totals 6-9 days out way N-NW followed by a huge SE correction 4-5 days out and then a meet in the middle 2-3 days out. Hoping this is the case again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 00z Euro also pretty similar to other models. They all have a nice hit for parts of Texas and Oklahoma. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 OKC going to get 4-8 wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Thanks the models seem to be trending back NW tonight. Have to admit the Chiefs had me worried a little, it felt like they were playing on quick sand all night.Congrats on the win! That goes to all the other Chief's fans as well. Great comeback win...that Team just never gives up and always seems to find a way to win. Now, are the models showing a comeback as well??? Nice to see the Ukie/Euro on board with a similar solution with the second wave (Wed/Thu). It seems like the models are suggesting this storm won't come out of the deep south in one single piece of energy and want to hang back a third and final piece that ultimately tracks up the east side of the App's/EC. Still lots of time to see how this all plays out but its nice to see the EPS also show a bit more love around the MW/Lower Lakes. Let's not forget out our southern friends! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 As Jaster has been saying, I find it very frustrating in this era of tech that the models seem to recently have a "medium range" problem. Maybe it is part of the their DNA when computing data. I remember Skilling saying once before that the lower rez models (ICON/NAVY) tend to do a better job in these more complex systems that have multiple waves. Having said that, I've been watching the ICON and NAVY model in recent days and they have more or less been consistent showing a strong cutter. For instance, we have the NAVY model, that has consistently shown a strong cutter for the last 8 runs in a row. Lastly, we have the ICON model that has been showing the same thing for the last 7 runs in a row....I find it interesting as we have all of these models at our disposal and occasionally the "lower grade" models may come out ahead of the higher caliber ones. Needless to say, should be an interesting couple of days watching the models. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 00z Canadian... 00z GEFS did come back NW with some of its ensemble members... 06z GEFS....even farther NW... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Based on the models 3-5 inches are looking like a good bet in my area. 3z SREF shows this as well. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 For those of us near the lake, there is a rather good signal for Lehs/LES at this range which is intriguing. We may finally score a decent set up as arctic air is able to filter into this system and winds will be off the lake for more than 24+ hours. Could be one of those wild cards with this storm system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 6z Euro also picks up on some LES 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Good luck everyone 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Where is OKWX? Looks decent in his area?? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 9z SREF takes a jump NW 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Thanks the models seem to be trending back NW tonight. Have to admit the Chiefs had me worried a little, it felt like they were playing on quick sand all night. We are going to score some snow I feel good about this. Clinton buddy! Looks like both sports and wx have indeed trended your way in the end. What a game! Congrats on being Champs and good luck with the storm too. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Clinton buddy! Looks like both sports and wx have indeed trended your way in the end. What a game! Congrats on being Champs and good luck with the storm too. Thanks buddy. I think we are going to the parade Wednesday should be a blast and maybe some snow falling at the same time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 12z ICON 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 12z ICONIt’s crazy how consistent its been over the past couple days. I think we will see better consistency today among all the models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Well the NW trend has started and remains to be seen if it will continue. This winter has been so weird and modeling so terrible that the outcome will not be known till probably the day of and that's not a given either. Not sure what to expect but east of Chi-Town is looking pretty good at this moment. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 It’s crazy how consistent its been over the past couple days. I think we will see better consistency today among all the models.12z GFS looks good for mby so far. Our Oklahma friend is going to like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Riding the line with the GFS here, I'd take it though compared to previous runs. Looking good for the west MI peeps. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 12z GFS looks good for mby so far. Our Oklahma friend is going to like this.Looks great here to! That’s a definite shift NW... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 12z GFS 10:1 and Kuchera 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 GFS n NAM look good. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Clinton, Okwx and Andie are looking good w this system. Good luck guys 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 After all the drama and negativity from yesterday’s runs, they are quickly being eroded today. It’s funny how emotional one can get from this hobby. Patience is a virtue. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 12z GGEM looking very similar to the GFS/ICON....consistency.... 12z GFS... 12z GGEM... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Boom! K.C. back in the game with the data this morning. Parade is Wednesday in Downtown KC and we just might be snowing at the same time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 3, 2020 Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 As Jaster has been saying, I find it very frustrating in this era of tech that the models seem to recently have a "medium range" problem. Maybe it is part of the their DNA when computing data. I remember Skilling saying once before that the lower rez models (ICON/NAVY) tend to do a better job in these more complex systems that have multiple waves. Having said that, I've been watching the ICON and NAVY model in recent days and they have more or less been consistent showing a strong cutter. For instance, we have the NAVY model, that has consistently shown a strong cutter for the last 8 runs in a row. Lastly, we have the ICON model that has been showing the same thing for the last 7 runs in a row....I find it interesting as we have all of these models at our disposal and occasionally the "lower grade" models may come out ahead of the higher caliber ones. Needless to say, should be an interesting couple of days watching the models. Tom you are right. Skilling loves the ICON and Navy in the medium range. not a lot of TV mets use these 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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