OKwx2k4 Posted September 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2023 Here's the numerical spread on Niño predictions for each model. There are some that are way stupidly too high. This would explain the forecast avg that I believe is too high. A lot of the models start at too high of a number to begin with. I removed some of the models so the averages could be better seen. (2nd Image) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 2, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2023 If ENSO is poised for a surge, it is doing a poor job of displaying it. If anything, looks to stabilize or decline. Not really a fan of the cooling in the GOA/NW coast of US. Would like to see that sudden reverse to warming. Would give hope for these ridging episodes to finally go away for a good while. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 3, 2023 Report Share Posted October 3, 2023 9 hours ago, sumweatherdude said: Region 3.4 has been stable overall for about a month with the warmth spreading west, and waning in the east. 1.2 and 3 are on the decline with 4 still rising. The trends definitely don't support much more warming. But this is far outside my sphere of knowledge. We'll just have to wait and see. Would love it if it's already peaked. The experts say peaking mid-winter as per usual. But I wouldn't mind if we were peeking at a peaking now either 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 On 10/3/2023 at 6:27 PM, jaster220 said: The experts say peaking mid-winter as per usual. But I wouldn't mind if we were peeking at a peaking now either I still hold that we will or are already seeing peak in 3.4. 1 is still higher, but at this time, the shift west has begun. Any additional gains in 3.4 are from this as it appears the subsurface is nearly depleted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2023 Really glad to see the warm spot forming out by the dateline. Would hope to see forcing follow it as we go through November. Beautiful. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2023 Report Share Posted November 3, 2023 fwiw, the prelim ONI reading for Aug/Sep/Oct came in at 1.5 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 5, 2023 Report Share Posted November 5, 2023 On 11/3/2023 at 5:15 PM, Hoosier said: fwiw, the prelim ONI reading for Aug/Sep/Oct came in at 1.5 I don't really track ENSO. Was that higher or lower than expected/forecasted? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2023 Report Share Posted November 5, 2023 4 hours ago, jaster220 said: I don't really track ENSO. Was that higher or lower than expected/forecasted? That's a little tough to answer because there are various forecasting tools when it comes to ENSO. So it depends on what you're looking at. But based on ONI, this Nino is heading into strong territory at this time. As others have pointed out, there are other measures like the MEI or RONI that show it as a more subdued Nino. I'm not sure that we will reach the unofficial "super" Nino status that is generally regarded as ONI reaching 2.0 (I'd lean against an ONI of 2.0 at this point), but even if we do, the peak will be lower than years like 1997-98 and 2015-16 and the forcing farther west. Obviously it would be wise to not expect the world from this Nino in our region, but that doesn't mean it has to be terrible wall-to-wall. Those big Ninos in 1998 and 2016 did produce some good storms in our region, namely 3/9/98 and 2/24/16, so hopefully we can pull off a big storm even if the winter overall isn't good. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted November 5, 2023 Report Share Posted November 5, 2023 What is the RONI anyway? Not sure I've seen that one defined. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted November 5, 2023 Report Share Posted November 5, 2023 There is a decent Kelvin Wave and some westerly wind anomaly over the western Nino regions now. This may produce one last bump but I think that is it. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2023 Report Share Posted November 5, 2023 43 minutes ago, Black Hole said: What is the RONI anyway? Not sure I've seen that one defined. Relative ONI. Basically, you subtract the average SST from the ONI. The ASO RONI value came in at 1.05. You can get the RONI values here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt More about the RONI: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 5, 2023 Report Share Posted November 5, 2023 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: That's a little tough to answer because there are various forecasting tools when it comes to ENSO. So it depends on what you're looking at. But based on ONI, this Nino is heading into strong territory at this time. As others have pointed out, there are other measures like the MEI or RONI that show it as a more subdued Nino. I'm not sure that we will reach the unofficial "super" Nino status that is generally regarded as ONI reaching 2.0 (I'd lean against an ONI of 2.0 at this point), but even if we do, the peak will be lower than years like 1997-98 and 2015-16 and the forcing farther west. Obviously it would be wise to not expect the world from this Nino in our region, but that doesn't mean it has to be terrible wall-to-wall. Those big Ninos in 1998 and 2016 did produce some good storms in our region, namely 3/9/98 and 2/24/16, so hopefully we can pull off a big storm even if the winter overall isn't good. I enjoyed both of those! Thanks for the breakdown and reminder that even in the stronger category, we CAN get something exciting. Throw in 09-10 as a wildcard analog strong Nino and it's certainly worth staying tuned. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2023 Report Share Posted November 6, 2023 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: I enjoyed both of those! Thanks for the breakdown and reminder that even in the stronger category, we CAN get something exciting. Throw in 09-10 as a wildcard analog strong Nino and it's certainly worth staying tuned. Not saying this Nino is like 2015-16, but I'm approaching this winter with the same type of mindset as I did then. Assume that it won't be a great winter for prolonged snowcover retention (and be pleasantly surprised if it is), but enjoy any good stretches while they occur and hope for a good storm or two. 2015-16 had 3 significant storms imby... 11/22/15, the epic sleet fest of 12/28/15, and 2/24/16. Since my expectations were low in 2015-16, I came out of that feeling fairly satisfied even though the final total on paper was pretty unremarkable. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted November 6, 2023 Report Share Posted November 6, 2023 16 hours ago, Hoosier said: Relative ONI. Basically, you subtract the average SST from the ONI. The ASO RONI value came in at 1.05. You can get the RONI values here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt More about the RONI: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed Good stuff. Yes, this makes perfect sense that CC is creating an artificial +ENSO signal and something like what they do in that paper is necessary to deal with it. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 From APX's winter forecast (ofc they're just running with the "strong Nino incoming" mantra). I found this interesting: Figuring those AN temps just HAD to be bad news for your winter outcome, right?? Wrong. Gaylord with "only" 162 inches on the season: The gradient between Grayling and Gaylord is a mere 6 FEET of snow on the season. Krazy 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2023 Report Share Posted November 24, 2023 Another interesting map from that forecast. This shows how the stronger Ninos really increase the odds for AN snowfall in the S Plains region. There is also a small signal across the northern portion of mid-Michigan area that is slightly AN odds for good snowfall. I will give them kudos for a nice list of "CYA" caveats: 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 28, 2023 Report Share Posted November 28, 2023 From Terry Swails blog last night. Another factor that I feel will play a significant factor in our "winter overall" is the cooling of the El Niño waters near the coast of South America. While sea surface temperatures have dropped off there, they have warmed in the enso region 3.4 to the west. That implies to me that we are headed for a Modoki El Niño, which is not the typical run-of-the-mild blow torch version. It does give me hope that this winter will have its moments of cold and snow. So far, that is a positive trend that we seem to be moving towards. Time will tell. That's all for now. Roll weather...TS 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2023 Report Share Posted December 4, 2023 The prelim SON ONI value came in at 1.8 The RONI continues to lag substantially behind at just over 1.3, but even that value has a good shot to reach 1.5 when all is said and done. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2023 Report Share Posted December 17, 2023 A good El Nino discussion from Terry Swails blog yesterday. The big news floating around the weather world Friday was that the El Niño, that's been bordering on "a super Niño", is weakening. The trades are also pushing it west, where it will likely be classified as a Modoki El Niño. In other words, its warmest waters are expected to be found in the central Pacific in a region called 3.4. Back in September, it was east based with the warmest waters off the South American coast. Pressure gauges indicate El Niño is weak A tool that some forecasters use to determine the status of El Niño and La Niña events is the Southern Oscillation Index, or what is commonly referred to as the SOI. The index measures pressure differences in the southwest Pacific, and when the gauge turns substantially positive, a La Niña event is likely happening or on the way. The reverse is also true, and when figures are markedly negative, an El Niño event is likely in progress. Recent values show a streak of positive figures that have impacted the SOI count. In fact, at times, during the last 30 and 90 days, the figure has weakened below what is typically considered an El Niño event. El Niños are known to exist when figures are at -8 on the index scale, and La Niñas exist when the average figure is +8 or greater. There is a huge disconnect between the SOI and a similar index called the ONI. The latest SOI values were -7.56 for the last 90 days and -2.78 for the last 30 days. The latest daily contribution Friday was positive (+4.05) which, at a glance, argues against the fact there is even so much as a weak El Niño. At the rate the SOI is progressing, this entire El Niño episode has the potential to be over and done by April 1st. This is a significant rise, and it's bound to have implications on the winter. The big unknown is how fast this El Niño ends and how far into the central Pacific the warmth migrates. The rapid decline we are seeing is somewhat unprecedented, and I think it has the potential to be a big winter wildcard going forward. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2023 Report Share Posted December 17, 2023 What will be so fascinating is how quickly the ENSO crashes this Spring into eventually what looks like a La Nina in the late Summer period? Pretty wild to see such a massive Warm Pool literally vanish within a matter of 6 months. Maybe sooner? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2023 Report Share Posted December 17, 2023 I'm not sure I agree with that statement about the Nino currently weakening or that it has reached its peak. I think it helps to look at multiple metrics to get the best idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted December 17, 2023 Report Share Posted December 17, 2023 It's been awhile since we seen a neutral enso for the entire winter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 The ONI for Oct/Nov/Dec came in at 1.9 Do we hit 2.0 on for NDJ? We'll see. Doesn't really matter though except for purposes of getting to call it a "super" Nino. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 NDJ value for ONI came in at 2.0 rounded, but unrounded value is 1.97. So interesting argument about whether this ought to be considered a "super" Nino. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 7 Report Share Posted February 7 La Nina is returning later this year... 2 2 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 10 Report Share Posted February 10 On 2/6/2024 at 8:45 PM, Iceresistance said: La Nina is returning later this year... What's your impression of la nina overall for us? To me it seems to slightly increase the odds of a good arctic blast but hit and miss with snow. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 On 2/10/2024 at 3:39 PM, Black Hole said: What's your impression of la nina overall for us? To me it seems to slightly increase the odds of a good arctic blast but hit and miss with snow. I agree with this. More cold air masses movement due to warmth at mid and high latitudes, but trade offs are global moisture transport decreasing because colder air, even at the equator, holds less moisture. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 It appears it won't be much longer til the end of 2023-24s Nino episode. What a 7 day change. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 8 Author Report Share Posted March 8 What is incredible is seeing the virtually stable North Pacific in contrast to the equator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 4 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: It appears it won't be much longer til the end of 2023-24s Nino episode. What a 7 day change. It wasn’t very good to Okla/Tx this time. Rainfall stunk until this week. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 11 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: It appears it won't be much longer til the end of 2023-24s Nino episode. What a 7 day change. Of note, is the continuing warmth of the GOM...I'm really concerned for FL this season and pretty much all of the Gulf States. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 14 Report Share Posted March 14 On 12/17/2023 at 11:41 AM, Thunder98 said: It's been awhile since we seen a neutral enso for the entire winter 2013-14 was the last true ENSO neutral winter. You could make the argument for 2019-20, but that one could be considered a weak el nino.El Nino La Nina Years.xlsx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 14 Author Report Share Posted March 14 On 3/8/2024 at 12:16 PM, Tom said: Of note, is the continuing warmth of the GOM...I'm really concerned for FL this season and pretty much all of the Gulf States. Yeah. Been awol for a few, but I have saw that. Its a dead on pipeline almost on a map. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 25 Report Share Posted March 25 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GomfJ26YiCc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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