April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kayla is going to get a lot of snow.

[Jesse]

The latest Euro is slightly west with the pattern this weekend than previous runs. Could at least give us some coolish lows and only slightly warmer than average days.

 

Also takes things in a totally different direction later next week.

[TT-SEA]

Decent rain event next Wednesday per the 12Z ECMWF... particularly from Seattle north and eastward. Would be nice to have some rain for a variety of reasons. Not 3 weeks straight... but some rain every week.

[Jesse]

Euro shows a solid half inch of rain down here on Wednesday/Thursday. That would be really, really nice, but given how erratic the models have been lately at any sort of range I wouldn't hang my hat on anything just yet.

[Jesse]

Euro shows the focus of the rain extending down into Oregon. That would be nice for a change.

 

[TT-SEA]

Rain focus definitely shifts south after the initial wave.

[Kayla]

Kayla is going to get a lot of snow.

 

Pretty classic big snow and Arctic cold setup for here. Quite unusual for mid April though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

77/38, so 39°F diurnal range today at HIO.

 

Yesterday was 74/34 and managed a 40°F range.

It was also 77/38 at TTD. Pretty neat to see both locations record the same low and high for the day, doesn't happen often.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Smells like summer outside, air is really dry. It was dark with a temperature of 61 and a dewpoint of 38 at 8pm.

Noticed my lips starting to get chapped the other day. Had to make a run to Walgreens to get some lip balm.

[TacomaWaWx]

63 here...thought today was supposed to be slightly cooler but should end up close to yesterday’s 65 degree high.

[Jesse]

63 here...thought today was supposed to be slightly cooler but should end up close to yesterday’s 65 degree high.

 

Yeah, up to 66 here. Should get close to 70 again today.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[Jesse]

As usual the details are lost in the heavily smoothed five day 850mb temp anomaly means, but the EPS moved toward the operational overall at the 500mb level, especially for next week.

[TT-SEA]

As usual the details are lost in the heavily smoothed five day 850mb temp anomaly means, but the EPS moved toward the operational overall at the 500mb level, especially for next week.

 

 

Big picture Jesse.   When its going to be cold... the 5-day mean maps look plenty cold.  

 

I mentioned this morning that the 00Z EPS showed a break down of the ridge at the end of the run.   The 12Z run actually keeps the ridge around even at day 15.

 

[Jesse]

Can’t believe PDX is already back up to 70 today. Could be one of those months.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guy on a jet ski keeps going by back and forth in front of the weather window. Looks nice. Hard to hate on this weather too much. 

[TT-SEA]

Guy on a jet ski keeps going by back and forth in front of the weather window. Looks nice. Hard to hate on this weather too much.

Randy??

 

I never been on a jet ski in my life. Might have to give it a try!

[Jesse]

Guy on a jet ski keeps going by back and forth in front of the weather window. Looks nice. Hard to hate on this weather too much.

 

It’s possible that jet ski may be his home.

[TT-SEA]

68 and sunny here... but clouds are starting to form to the north and east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Randy??

 

I never been on a jet ski in my life. Might have to give it a try!

 

A few kayakers went by yesterday, and an older couple floated by in a rowboat a few hours ago. 

[MossMan]

Randy??

I never been on a jet ski in my life. Might have to give it a try!

They are a lot of fun! Started with stand up jetskis when I was about 6yrs old, would ride my uncles 1978 Kawasaki 440’s by myself. Back then there were no boating licenses or age requirements. Then I got my very own sit down ski in 1994, put nearly 800hrs on it before trading it in on my current one back in 2002. Only have about 300hrs on it...Sucks being an adult with responsibilities sometimes. This was my last ride back in late September as I was taking it out of the water for the winter. Almost time to pull it out of the shop for another season!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another one just went by with a couple on it. They were NOT social distancing. 

[MossMan]

68 and sunny here... but clouds are starting to form to the north and east.

Was all deep blue skies an hour ago when I took this pic, a few high clouds now.

Currently 60 after a high of 65.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles starting to possibly show some signs of life.

 

[ShawniganLake]

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

59 in Kelso, 70 in Portland. That succulent marine air should start rushing in soon.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Guy on a jet ski keeps going by back and forth in front of the weather window. Looks nice. Hard to hate on this weather too much.

It's fun especially if you got the whole river or lake to yourself.

[TacomaWaWx]

64/43 here today...clouds moving in now and 61.

[Phil]

Gonna be a pretty crazy setup to our east this weekend. Major storm.

Sunday night/Monday looks downright dangerous here on BUFKIT. Not as tornadic as down south, but there’s a raging 80kt LLJ just off the surface with speed shear through the roof..SBCAPE gets advected in during the dead of night which is not typical. Based on those soundings, even a low topped moderate shower could mix down 70mph winds. And currently, there’s heavy convection modeled Monday AM. I’m on edge..lol.

[MossMan]

Already down to 49 after it was still 60 just two hours ago...At least the marine push waited until the evening.

[TT-SEA]

Already down to 49 after it was still 60 just two hours ago...At least the marine push waited until the evening.

Still 61 here... warm evening. Earlier this week it looked like today might be cloudy and cool all day... glad we ended up with another spectacular day.

[Blizzard777]

65/39  today with a temp of 72* in the house

53* currently 

[Omegaraptor]

00z GFS has some really nice convection in southern and central Oregon. Quite a ways to trend north to reach here though.

[Jesse]

00z GFS has some really nice convection in southern and central Oregon.

 

No rain here until hour 258.

[Jesse]

70/41 here today. Increasing NW winds in the evening and the temperature is now down to 52.

[luminen]

It's only gonna get hotter and drier Jesse.

 

Don't fight it.

[Jesse]

00z Euro seems to hint that some type of weather as opposed to sharp ridging centered slightly to our west may be possible at some point in the next 7-10 days.

[TacomaWaWx]

Only got down to 45 last night....been in the 40s mostly the last several days. Hasn’t hit freezing since 3/17 and most likely won’t again next fall.