April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS keeps the cold going over the Midwest and NE in the long range... maybe an old school spring out there.

 

[Phil]

12Z EPS keeps the cold going over the Midwest and NE in the long range... maybe an old school spring out there.

 

Old school? As in, every April since 2013 with the exception of last year before we inevitably flip to blowtorching a month later? Yeah, that’s real old school.

 

At least it’s not a +TNH/Baffin Vortex driven pattern. Those tend to flip warm real quick in May across the middle latitudes when wavelengths shorten just enough. More wave activity this year by a significant margin given our starting point w/ the NAM and the IPWP attempting to re-center over the IO. Not your +PMM regime of recent years, that’s for sure.

[Jesse]

Old school? As in, every April since 2013 with the exception of last year before we inevitably flip to blowtorching a month later? Yeah, that’s real old school.

At least it’s not a +TNH/Baffin Vortex driven pattern. Those tend to flip warm real quick in May across the middle latitudes when wavelengths shorten just enough. More wave activity this year by a significant margin given our starting point w/ the NAM and the IPWP attempting to re-center over the IO. Not your +PMM regime of recent years, that’s for sure .

So...old school?

[Jesse]

Really nice day. Mostly sunny and 54 currently with a cool WNW breeze.

[Phil]

So...old school?

Or a little less new agey.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z EPS keeps the cold going over the Midwest and NE in the long range... maybe an old school spring out there.

 

12Z GEFS is similar, strong signal that far out.

 

[MossMan]

The sun!

[Blizzard777]

The sun!

People are out mowing their grass in it! Crazy 

[Blizzard777]

55* 

Two fir trees released from whisky barrels and planted in yard today. They are now free range firs 

[snow_wizard]

Looking like a decent continental cold front coming through this weekend.  That should really freshen up the cold mins.  So far this month I've been below 35 every day except for one.  I really like this pattern this time of year.  This is the kind of year we will probably see frost deep into the spring.

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

Any bets on high temps at PDX the next few days? Seems like they could make a run at 75 if things line up right.

 

Probably the best bet on Thursday since they will have to overcome a fairly cool start tomorrow.

[Jesse]

Nice day here. 59/37 with some scattered morning clouds and a clear afternoon and evening. Caught a great moonrise from Rocky Butte earlier.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Any bets on high temps at PDX the next few days? Seems like they could make a run at 75 if things line up right.

 

Probably the best bet on Thursday since they will have to overcome a fairly cool start tomorrow.

69, 75

 

Could today have been any nicer!?

[Jesse]

69, 75

Could today have been any nicer!?

It was aight.

[Deweydog]

Any bets on high temps at PDX the next few days? Seems like they could make a run at 75 if things line up right.

 

Probably the best bet on Thursday since they will have to overcome a fairly cool start tomorrow.

69, 73

[Phil]

OT, but check out this brutal beating Pittsburgh International Airport is taking tonight.

 

This QLCS is a machine.

 

[Phil]

[Jesse]

00z ensembles look improved.

[Jesse]

69, 73

I’ll say 71, 75.

 

“Coolish” east wind could be a bit of a mitigating factor tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

I was thinking that this pattern has to be similar to April 1951... which was one of the most remarkable Aprils in local history (and the beginning of a truly remarkable warm season).    Top on the CPC analog list tonight is 1951.   Probably won't last, but it was nice to get a little taste.

[Jesse]

Clear skies and some light frost this morning. Low of 34.

[Jesse]

Operational Euro tried to undercut the ridge in the 6-10 day range last night, but the EPS was in disagreement and kept it in its spot.

 

The 06z GFS had 0” of rain for the Portland area through hour 384 and the GFS ensembles have turned warmer and drier in the mid to long range.

[MossMan]

Been quite a -PNA run!

Anyway had a low of 33 degrees, currently up to 43 and sunny!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like quite a bit of winter east of the Rockies.

[AlTahoe]

I was thinking that this pattern has to be similar to April 1951... which was one of the most remarkable Aprils in local history (and the beginning of a truly remarkable warm season).    Top on the CPC analog list tonight is 1951.   Probably won't last, but it was nice to get a little taste.

I know Analogs don't work this way but please let us experience another 1951-1952 winter here in the Sierra for next season. 

[Jesse]

Looks like quite a bit of winter east of the Rockies.

12Z GFS was that bad huh?

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS is a little warmer (farther east) with the weekend trough and then is warm through the rest of the run and does not show undercutting either.  

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean:

 

[Jesse]

Cold spring.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF abandoned the idea of undercutting that the 00Z run showed. 

 

The 00Z run was actually still fairly dry and warm though... all the action was to the south.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is also slightly east with the trough over the weekend... and then warm through day 15.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS is a little warmer (farther east) with the weekend trough and then is warm through the rest of the run and does not show undercutting either.  

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean:

 

 

 

12Z EPS in surprisingly good agreement...

 

[Deweydog]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

 

Careful, don’t unjinx your jinx!

[Deweydog]

Careful, don’t unjinx your jinx!

Don’t count your chicken’s weenies quite yet...

[Omegaraptor]

PDX and HIO have both hit 70.

[Jesse]

Don’t count your chicken’s weenies quite yet...

Cool down and a wet up after a several week warm up and dry down??