April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

Rain basically a non event today. Only 0.03". Could definitely use a good soaker or two.

[Jesse]

I think we get clipped by that trough next weekend. Just my guess.

Followed by a war mup?

[Jesse]

Rain basically a non event today. Only 0.03". Could definitely use a good soaker or two.

Indeed. Sometimes these wrap around bands can overperform but that wasn’t the case today. Just a 3-4 hours of light rain in the afternoon/early evening.

[ShawniganLake]

Followed by a war mup?

I’d check with Dewey on that. He’s the expert.

[Jesse]

Just .10” or so even for the south valley. At least they scored a coolish day down there.

[MossMan]

It was a nice day for a walk down the main road.

Currently 38 degrees.

.09” on the day.

[Deweydog]

I’d check with Dewey on that. He’s the expert.

Approved.

[TT-SEA]

Fell asleep.

 

Nice ECMWF run. No rain until day 10... and nice next weekend. Still think the trough will end up much farther west though.

[El_Nina]

Government Camp

[ShawniganLake]

Government Camp

GovernmentCamp_pid624 (1).jpg

Looks like it’s dark there too.

[El_Nina]

Looks like it’s dark there too.

Finally a full regional event.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like we will be waiting until Saturday or possibly later for rain. Haven’t had any since 3/30....so we’re looking at at least a 12 day dry streak. Rainfall has come in streaks recently...had no rain from 3/13-3/23.....then had rain every day from 3/23-3/30 and no rainfall since...so 6 days without rain on this current streak.

[TacomaWaWx]

44 and cloudy this morning...11 degrees warmer than yesterday mornings low.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we will be waiting until Saturday or possibly later for rain. Haven’t had any since 3/30....so we’re looking at at least a 12 day dry streak. Rainfall has come in streaks recently...had no rain from 3/13-3/23.....then had rain every day from 3/23-3/30 and no rainfall since...so 6 days without rain on this current streak.

 

 

Pretty decent rain event on the 12Z GFS for next Saturday... as moisture gets caught up in NW flow.

 

But the GFS looks wildly different for the weekend and early next week than previous runs and certainly very different than the cold solution that was shown yesterday morning.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No cold air at all on the GFS ensembles. 

[TT-SEA]

Here was the 12Z GFS yesterday morning... with that very cold trough:

 

 

 

 

And the new 12Z run for the same time:

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

That GOA ridge is stuck stuckitty stuck, as has been the case for much of the last 12 months. That means lots and lots of troughing over the West Coast until the 4 Corners High builds by late June or early July.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That GOA ridge is stuck stuckitty stuck, as has been the case for much of the last 12 months. That means lots and lots of troughing over the West Coast until the 4 Corners High builds by late June or early July.

 

The west coast warm finger has dominated since about June 2013. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty decent rain event on the 12Z GFS for next Saturday... as moisture gets caught up in NW flow.

 

But the GFS looks wildly different for the weekend and early next week than previous runs and certainly very different than the cold solution that was shown yesterday morning.

We will see....probably will end up with some rainfall at some point next weekend or early next week.

[ShawniganLake]

No cold air at all on the GFS ensembles.

Looks cold to Jim.

[TT-SEA]

We will see....probably will end up with some rainfall at some point next weekend or early next week.

 

 

Definitely seems likely for next weekend... with NW flow though so that tends to leave your area shadowed while bringing decent rain to the usual areas to the north and east of Seattle.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought next weekend might actually be looking wet. Looks like maybe a few hours of drizzle. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Models look like May 2018. Jesse is going to freak when he wakes up. 

[TT-SEA]

I thought next weekend might actually be looking wet. Looks like maybe a few hours of drizzle. 

 

 

Meanwhile... to the north and east of Seattle we get healthy amounts of rain in NW flow.    Maybe a couple inches worth.

 

The rich just get richer.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile... to the north and east of Seattle we get healthy amounts of rain in NW flow.    Maybe a couple inches worth.

 

The rich just get richer.

 

 

If you recall down here we had TONS of rain in early April last year. Ended up being pretty meaningless as we started torching by mid month. 

[TT-SEA]

Models look like May 2018. Jesse is going to freak when he wakes up. 

 

 

The GFS has been struggling mightily lately... which should be good news except yesterday he said it was the consistent model.    <_>

[ShawniganLake]

How’d the eps look

[TT-SEA]

How’d the eps look

 

Might be a return to winter for the Midwest and NE.  

 

5-10 day period...

 

 

 

10-15 day period...

 

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM was quite troughy for next weekend... but the 12Z run shifted east.

[jcmcgaffey]

If you recall down here we had TONS of rain in early April last year. Ended up being pretty meaningless as we started torching by mid month.

the good news I guess is that even with how hot and dry it was down there the fire season was pretty low compared to previous years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble improvement, 

[TT-SEA]

Got some of the patio furniture out this morning...

 

[Jesse]

Ensemble improvement,

 

See, that little meltdown earlier was for nothing.

 

We got up early to do a couple hour walk around Lacamas and missed the whole thing.

[Jesse]

One positive think to think about Andrew is the fact that we are in a building Niña.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does not show any rain at all for Saturday... consistent with the 00Z run.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF is actually warm and sunny for all of next weekend. A far cry from the cold scenarios the GFS was showing for the last couple days.

[Jesse]

This weekend has been dry and sunny up north. The whole work week looks dry and sunny. I fail to understand the frantic obsession with next weekend and avoiding a very slight chance of needed rainfall.

[TT-SEA]

This weekend has been dry and sunny up north. The whole work week looks dry and sunny. I fail to understand the frantic obsession with next weekend and avoiding a very slight chance of needed rainfall.

Exaggeration.

 

First of all we don't need rain up here. And secondly... weekends are still meaningful and a nice weekend is always appreciated. Particularly at this time of year. Very few people have an obsession with getting more rain and cold right now. I understand it's very important to you though.

[Jesse]

I guess one thing that’s flown under the radar is that the midweek airmass has been gradually trending a little less impressive, in terms of warmth.