April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is sticking with late week troughing.   We have seen the play before... the GFS usually wins in the big picture since the upgrade.   The ECMWF comes around eventually and then beats the GFS with the fine details.   

[Jesse]

50/40 day today. Models sure look dry...especially in the lowlands from Olympia north. Probably will be little to no rain the next week if the models verify. March did have more rainfall than 2018 and 2019 combined at 3.90” which is roughly an inch below average.

 

Yeah looking really dry most of next week and beyond.

 

We were about an inch and a half below average for March rainfall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS looks cooler late next week. 

[Jesse]

Today ended up reasonably chilly. 49/38 here with some afternoon rain and hail showers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here it comes. 

[TT-SEA]

Even the cold, troughy solutions are pretty dry though.

[El_Nina]

0.24" today makes it 0.60" since the 1st.

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles have trended warmer and drier.

[Front Ranger]

GFS ensembles have trended warmer and drier.

-3 April in doubt?

[Jesse]

-3 April in doubt?

 

-3" April.

[El_Nina]

Low of 33 this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A frosty 28 this morning. 

[El_Nina]

Getting some light wet snow now. 36.

[Skagit Weather]

Had some very, very wet snow almost at sea level a moment ago. 38F so obviously not sticking at all.

[TacomaWaWx]

Wet snow flakes here at 300’ in Tacoma in early April. I haven’t seen april snowflakes in almost 10 years. Currently 38.

[MossMan]

Snowing! All snow and 35 degrees.

[MossMan]

Coming down bigly now!

[TT-SEA]

Nice improvement on the 12Z GFS for later next week.

[seattleweatherguy]

Snowing! All snow and 35 degrees.

 

Nice did any stick?

[MossMan]

Nice did any stick?

Starting to stick on the deck.

[El_Nina]

Turned to moderate snow again, 37.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM is fully on board with ridging late next week as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice improvement on the 12Z GFS for later next week.

 

Still time for things to trend in a better direction. 

[TT-SEA]

Still time for things to trend in a better direction. 

 

 

More ridging?    I suppose but not counting on it.

 

If we do have to endure a sunny, pleasant period instead of endless periods of cold rain/snow showers... I might have to reach out to your wife and let her know that not everyone cheers for miserable weather all the time.    

[ShawniganLake]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM is fully on board with ridging late next week as well.

Hasn’t it been on board for awhile.

[TT-SEA]

Hasn’t it been on board for awhile.

 

Yes... hesitant to say it led the way because the entire thing might vanish eventually.    But it has not backed down.

[Jesse]

Looks like a good time to take a break from model riding. Really nothing of interest coming up for the foreseeable future.

 

Pretty pathetic than even reaching average precip has become such a huge struggle every month.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS ensembles are much warmer for next week as well.  

[ShawniganLake]

I saw some snow flakes here a bit ago. Quite windy too

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a good time to take a break from model riding. Really nothing of interest coming up for the foreseeable future.

 

Pretty pathetic than even reaching average precip has become such a huge struggle every month.

 

 

What is pathetic is that nature has been delivering anomalously wet weather to parts of the PNW at times... but when that happens its almost always in the same area and its been like that for the last 6 years.    This current regime has been very persistent in that regard.   Up here... we would love for it to change as well. 

[Jesse]

Hoping things trend wetter mid month. The first half of the month is pretty much shot at this point.

 

It’s been so long since we’ve seen a cool and wet last half of April through May that it doesn’t even seem possible, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like next week is sure to be a dud. Good thing we are scoring these negative departures this week. I don't think Jesse should worry. End of April will be prime time for grapuel. 

[Jesse]

Looks like next week is sure to be a dud. Good thing we are scoring these negative departures this week. I don't think Jesse should worry. End of April will be prime time for grapuel.

 

The region getting soaked with a couple slow moving ULLs would be nice. Getting into that time of year!

[Jesse]

I will say, even though this troughy pattern hasn’t been memorable at all at the surface compared to what was progged at points (at least for down here), I am very grateful it got mountain snowpack up to average right at the start of ablation season.

[Jesse]

Following along with my last post, I see that the Northern Oregon Cascades are now 109% of average for the date. 106% for the Willamette basin, 113% for the south Washington Cascades.

 

Southwestern Oregon basins are still around 82%, but the ULL dropping south early next week could give them a pretty substantial boost.

[GHweatherChris]

Rain/snow mix right now, I have now seen snow falling in 6 consecutive months, and winter was still shitty.

[TT-SEA]

This is about the time that the ECMWF will totally flip to a cold/wet solution.    

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM is fully on board with ridging late next week as well.

Yeah, looks like upper 70s down here if it verifies.

 

[Jesse]

Euro is about to double down on the warmth next week.

[MossMan]

Euro is about to double down on the warmth next week.

Finally!!