April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

I might be breaking some sort of unspoken rule since this model is generally only whipped out its warm and all the others are cold, but the GEM is NOT ON BOARD for a warm weekend.

Triggered.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Given I am still working, it would be nice if the sunny weather was focused on the weekend. Though I am working today a bit anyway. 

[Kayla]

GFS has been pretty consistent with a shallow shortwave dropping in from the NW toward the weekend. EURO has shown everything from deep troughing to sharp ridging over us in the same period.

 

Obviously neither model is perfect, I think all models have been struggling more than usual due to the lack of data. But it seems like the Euro has been waffling more for that period in particular. Just based on my perception.

 

Slight shifts in the ridge placement and amplification obviously has big ramifications for you guys. 

 

18z GFS just yesterday

 

Today's 12z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Slight shifts in the ridge placement and amplification obviously has big ramifications for you guys. 

 

18z GFS just yesterday

 

Today's 12z

 

Liking the trend. 

[Jesse]

Slight shifts in the ridge placement and amplification obviously has big ramifications for you guys. 

 

18z GFS just yesterday

 

 

Today's 12z

 

 

Nice maps. Doesn't really prove or disprove anything though. Models change. It has been my perception that the Euro has been less consistent for that period.

[Jesse]

Given I am still working, it would be nice if the sunny weather was focused on the weekend. Though I am working today a bit anyway. 

 

Liking the trend.

[Kayla]

Nice maps. Doesn't really prove or disprove anything though. Models change.

 

Just that the GFS is waffling around more than the ECMWF in terms of the upper levels.

 

12z ECMWF today

 

12z ECMWF from yesterday

[Jesse]

Just that the GFS is waffling around more than the ECMWF in terms of the upper levels.

 

12z ECMWF today

 

 

12z ECMWF from yesterday

 

 

Is it Montana cherry picking season already?

 

Not sure why you are randomly deciding to take up this battle, but I am speaking to what I have generally seen from the Euro over the last several days. Not just two runs.

[Jesse]

Breezy!

 

From what direction? Pretty calm here. It is finally clouding up again, though.

[Deweydog]

From what direction? Pretty calm here. It is finally clouding up again, though.

East

[Jesse]

East

 

Not even a period. Ouch.

[Kayla]

Is it Montana cherry picking season already?

 

Not sure why you are randomly deciding to take up this battle, but I am speaking to what I have generally seen from the Euro over the last several days. Not just two runs.

 

It's not a random battle. You noted in two posts that the ECMWF has been inconsistent and I'm disagreeing. We talk about the weather models on here don't we?   

 

12z today ECMWF

 

12z on Thursday

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS looks like the operational run.

 

Here is day 10...

 

[TT-SEA]

50 and mostly sunny here.

[Jesse]

It's not a random battle. You noted in two posts that the ECMWF has been inconsistent and I'm disagreeing. We talk about the weather models on here don't we?   

 

12z today ECMWF

 

 

12z on Thursday

 

The Euro also produces runs at 00z. The run just 12 hours ago was showing a much troughier weekend. I’m not in the mood for a map war. I was just stating my own observations. You are free to disagree. Obviously all the models have been struggling more than usual lately with the drop off in data.

[Jesse]

Some good news. The EPS has much lower heights over us at day 10 than the operational Euro. Also shows the ridge centered a lot further offshore.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is a little warmer than the 00Z run... in the long range too. Nice trend.

[TacomaWaWx]

Conflicting reports

[Phil]

C9C6C910-9827-458B-B94C-B0B0F158C83A.gif

 

Soil moisture is only slightly below avg in the Willamette Valley. Combine this with above average snowpack in the Hood and Willamette basins and I don’t see much of a reason to sound the drought alarm this early. Mainly CA has to worry about drought right now.

CA could get ugly this spring/summer. But maybe not for the reasons many think, as an Aleutian/GOA ridge is increasing in likelihood for the warm season, with the development of a -PMM and warm waters throughout the IO/Indo-China domain of the IPWP. Which would be a “cold phase” type dry pattern for CA and much of the SW US.

 

Should be less +TNH/Aleutian Low *if* this is the direction the system is choosing take. Which would probably open the door to -ENSO taking hold as well, even if weak.

 

But hard to know still..there remains a low pass westerly signal ~ 160E. That certainly doesn’t suggest a strong/healthy -ENSO if it continues much longer. A more modest outcome might be a safer bet for now.

[Jesse]

CA could get ugly this spring/summer. But maybe not for the reasons many think, as an Aleutian/GOA ridge is increasing in likelihood for the warm season, with the development of a -PMM and warm waters throughout the IO/Indo-China domain of the IPWP. Which would be a “cold phase” type dry pattern for CA and much of the SW US.

 

Should be less +TNH/Aleutian Low *if* this is the direction the system is choosing take. Which would probably open the door to -ENSO taking hold as well, even if weak.

 

But hard to know still..there remains a low pass westerly signal ~ 160E. That certainly doesn’t suggest a strong/healthy -ENSO if it continues much longer. A more modest outcome might be a safer bet for now.

 

What in the name of Jesus is a +TNH?

[Phil]

Man, you guys take MJO cycles seriously.

 

Little hope for a cool/wet pattern in the PNW with a WHEM MJO and the momentum budget residing w/ the STJ (for now). The tendency is likely to be warm/dry out there until convection returns to the IO (which is actually warm/able to support re-inception this year, so it’s in the pipeline). But that won’t happen for at least two weeks, maybe three weeks.

[TT-SEA]

Conflicting reports

Basic message is that the EPS shows the same pattern as the ECMWF and did not trend colder and looks nothing like the GFS.

 

Still... models struggle with this amplified type of pattern so anything is possible.

[Jesse]

Man, you guys take MJO cycles seriously.

 

Above the phray?

[Phil]

What in the name of Jesus is a +TNH?

The “Tropical/Northern Hemispheric Pattern”. The classical teleconnection is active in winter, but there’s a summer element that is not given here but also exists which is essentially western ridge/Aleutian low/Hudson Bay vortex/suppressed SE ridge.

 

It’s tied to the WPAC Warm Pool/PMM and associated circulation.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

[Deweydog]

The “Tropical/Northern Hemispheric Pattern”. The classical teleconnection is active in winter, but there’s a summer element that is not given here but also exists which is essentially western ridge/Aleutian low/Hudson Bay vortex/suppressed SE ridge.

 

It’s tied to the WPAC Warm Pool/PMM and associated circulation.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

Warm ups and cool downs syndrome?

[Jesse]

Little hope for a cool/wet pattern in the PNW with a WHEM MJO and the momentum budget residing w/ the STJ (for now). The tendency is likely to be warm/dry out there until convection returns to the IO (which is actually warm/able to support re-inception this year, so it’s in the pipeline). But that won’t happen for at least two weeks, maybe three weeks.

I appreciate the insight.

[Timmy Supercell]

The big fluffy flakes never seem to last long. It has been flurrying last hour or so.

[Jesse]

Looking like Eugene and Salem have a pretty good chance at staying in the 40s today.

 

Meanwhile, PDX up to 54.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Deweydog]

Sprinkles!

[TT-SEA]

Nice day... partly sunny to mostly sunny at times here with a high of 55.    Looks like SEA made it to 56.

[Jesse]

53/36 here today. Some light rain and 49 now.

[TacomaWaWx]

52/33 today...currently 50 and filtered sunshine.

[GHweatherChris]

Nice day.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Only got to 47F today.  Those cold anomalies in fall and spring...taunting us when we have blast furnace winters and summers.

[Timmy Supercell]

Chilly day.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS shifted noticeably eastward with the trough next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

But the 00Z GEM is still more troughy next weekend.

[ShawniganLake]

I think we get clipped by that trough next weekend. Just my guess.

[TT-SEA]

I think we get clipped by that trough next weekend. Just my guess.

 

 

Definitely my feeling as well... its almost inevitable that the models eventually trend westward in these amplified patterns.  Its been happening for the last year at least.