April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[El_Nina]

Really need a wet period the second half of April. This can't be the end of our already paltry wet season.

[Jesse]

Started out clear this morning but there are now some low clouds that have moved up from the south. 43 currently.

[Jesse]

Really need a wet period the second half of April. This can't be the end of our already paltry wet season.

 

12z GFS through day 10 has pretty much 0" precip for anywhere in the western lowlands.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS through day 10 has pretty much 0" precip for anywhere in the western lowlands.

 

 

Its the whims of an amplified pattern.   When you get in the trough position... its perpetually cold and wet.    When you get in the ridge position... its the complete opposite.   

 

It might be time for the Midwest and the NE to be in the trough position for awhile...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see the east coast score. We will get some more wet weather in late April/early May. I am confident. 

[Jesse]

Nice to see the east coast score. We will get some more wet weather in late April/early May. I am confident. 

 

Have you seen the latest Nina forecasts Andrew?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have you seen the latest Nina forecasts Andrew?

 

It's been a week or so. I will go check. 

 

Good lord. I am going to prepare myself for copious amounts of 33 degree snow next winter. 

[Jesse]

This is the brightest full moon of the year, right?

 

IIRC it’s called a pink moon or something like that in the folklore. For the spring flowers, I guess.

 

I wasn't aware of which one is the brightest. There is so much meaningless "super moon" stuff floating around on social media these days I ignore a lot of it.

 

I do believe you are correct that the name of the April full moon is the "pink moon", though. I actually really like the different names for the full moon of each month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What the CFS ENSO forecast is showing would be a pretty rippin' NINA.

[Jesse]

12z ensembles are pretty meh. I was thinking April would have a little more in the way of variability.

[El_Nina]

12z GFS through day 10 has pretty much 0" precip for anywhere in the western lowlands.

February all over again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Willamette basin and Mount Hood basin snow pack stands at 110% of average as of April 6th. Given how mild the winter was overall, we did pretty well. 

[Jesse]

Willamette basin and Mount Hood basin snow pack stands at 110% of average as of April 6th. Given how mild the winter was overall, we did pretty well.

 

This is very true. It was on the cool side when it counted (the stormier periods).

[Jesse]

 

Not good

[Jesse]

The Euro almost looks cold with that weekend system on its most current run. Kind of an inside slider though so not a great pattern for precip.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

29797247-BA71-4903-8302-D3B0A5F4E5CF.png

 

Not good

 

June will be the key month. If we can score a wet June it should put a huge damper on things. A wet May followed by a warm dry June is a bad combo we don't want. 

[Jesse]

June will be the key month. If we can score a wet June it should put a huge damper on things. A wet May followed by a warm dry June is a bad combo we don't want. 

 

Average to slightly above average precip April-June would probably do the trick too. A wet May (assuming that's possible anymore) doesn't automatically mean a warm and dry June.

[Jesse]

While cooler and troughier overall compared to the GFS, the Euro is still pretty much bone dry through day 10.

[MossMan]

Getting downright warm on the deck. Love it!

[TT-SEA]

Inevitable trend west... happens almost every time now with these amplified patterns.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few patches of blue visible here in Salem. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS trended west and colder for the weekend as well. 

[Phil]

Nice to see the east coast score. We will get some more wet weather in late April/early May. I am confident.

Eh, I’d rather save the dynamic troughs and severe weather for July. Why waste it now only to blowtorch through the dog days of summer? That time of year is bad enough even without death ridge patterns.

[Phil]

Y’all can have the troughing for now.

 

Just give it to me starting in mid-May and we’re good.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

Phil wants us to phry.

[MossMan]

Up to 56 degrees. Lovely day!

[Cloud]

What the CFS ENSO forecast is showing would be a pretty rippin' NINA.

Just in case anyone missed it. Can't really complain. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and 60 here.

[Omegaraptor]

Another wonderful sunny afternoon. 63 right now. Sitting in the backyard.

[Jesse]

Another completely rainless GFS run.

[TT-SEA]

Another completely rainless GFS run.

 

1951 had a cold March and then a sunny, dry April.

 

Of course it was dry that year all the way into October.  

[Jesse]

Just in case anyone missed it. Can't really complain.

 

nino34Mon.gif

That's great news. Hopefully a sign that we will eventually break out of this awful pattern. Springs moving into Niñas tend to turn wet at some point.

 

The last two years in the late spring we were moving into +ENSO no-man's land.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles look a little improved. It appears some members are starting to catch onto the colder weekend idea the Euro is having.

 

Weather forecasting lately almost has a throwback feel to it, with the drop off in data due to flight restrictions. Some of the most consistent uncertainty in the mid range I can remember in a while. Five days is the new ten!

[Jesse]

Also looking pretty likely that PDX will hit their first 70 of the season Wednesday or Thursday.

Warmth lovers, thank last week’s Omegajinx^TM for that one.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful afternoon...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Partly cloudy and 61F.  Nice day!

[TacomaWaWx]

58/38 day today. Still haven’t hit 60 since January 3rd. Should get some low to mid 60s this week which would be the warmest we’ve been since early October.

[TacomaWaWx]

Haven’t had any rain in a week either...we really could have a full first half of April with no rain here.

[Jesse]

Could be shaping up to be a nice sunset later.

 

62/37 today.