May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Poor Tim's relatives.

It actually looks much better than it appears on that map... warm and sunny most of the time with scattered thunderstorms. Classic summer weather there.

[Front Ranger]

It's not exactly common.

Once per administration.

 

Vote...

[Phil]

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1210635942949728256?s=21

 

D58CE8F7-AEBA-4F4C-9B36-14A125D8385B.jpeg

Goofus will be goofy.

[GeorgeWx]

[GeorgeWx]

Poor Tim's relatives.

They live in Oklahoma?

[Front Ranger]

They live in Oklahoma?

 

Minisota.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

https://www.nbcchicago.com/weather/chicago-poised-to-shatter-record-for-wettest-may-of-all-time/2274029/

[Deweydog]

https://www.nbcchicago.com/weather/chicago-poised-to-shatter-record-for-wettest-may-of-all-time/2274029/

Might keep the murder rate down.

[TacomaWaWx]

I have the same feeling at this point.   Although a heat wave to end May might skew it the other way for June.

 

Its totally dismissed by a few people on here... but tracking days with rain seems like its a better predictor of what is ahead than total rain which can be misleading and not as indicative of pattern cycles.   

 

Even my area normally has a significant number of dry days in every month of the year based on climo (from 10 dry days in December to 24 in July and August)    Its probably the most important statistic for me in terms of rating the weather.   Anything near climo is good.   Last July - Sept was far above climo in that regard.

Last summer was just perfect IMO much better than 2017 and 2018 which were very dry...I think tracking rainfall days per month is a nice indicator as well. Overall things have been nice and balanced since all the rain in late December through early February...there were 60 days out of 70 with rainfall in that timeframe...and 30 out of 31 days had rainfall in January.

[TT-SEA]

Last summer was just perfect IMO much better than 2017 and 2018 which were very dry...I think tracking rainfall days per month is a nice indicator as well. Overall things have been nice and balanced since all the rain in late December through early February...there were 60 days out of 70 with rainfall in that timeframe...and 30 out of 31 days had rainfall in January.

Yeah... its been much more balanced overall in terms of days with rain since the middle of February. Probably close to climo in my area.

[GeorgeWx]

00z Gfs gets hot next week

[MossMan]

00z Gfs gets hot next week

Excellent!!

[TT-SEA]

Excellent!!

 

 

Nice to have the GFS on board. 

 

It was not on board last week with what looked like a heat wave starting late this week... and which is obviously not happening. 

[Deweydog]

00z Gfs gets hot next week

Whoa

[Omegaraptor]

GFS looks interesting at hour 240. With a ULL to the south in California, the cap breaks off and convection springs up throughout western OR. Not often we see a heat wave end in a thunderstorm like that nowadays.

[TT-SEA]

Whoa

 

 

Many quotes of heat maps is a sure path to jinxing.   Proceed with caution!

[TT-SEA]

GFS looks interesting at hour 240. With a ULL to the south in California, the cap breaks off and convection springs up throughout western OR. Not often we see a heat wave end in a thunderstorm like that nowadays.

 

 

Classic convection set up for the PNW.  

[GeorgeWx]

Excellent!!

Cmc even hotter, it was fun not having to water the lawn but that’s over with

[Jesse]

This seems to be aging well.

 

The writing is on the wall for what happens this weekend and beyond. We get a small downturn in heights over the long weekend which will probably trend progressively less impressive over the next few days, then once that gets out of the way we are clearly in the running for some big time heat to follow.

[Jesse]

High of 58 today. Was drizzly much of the afternoon with just a little evening clearing. Nice to get a good old fashioned late May drizzle fest around here, we have been due. Definitely looks like we could pay for it, though.

[Jesse]

Since we had that 19 day dry streak in April which ended April 18th...there’s been measurable precip 21 out of the last 33 days here. Get the feeling June’s going to be on the dry side since we’ve been leaning towards wetter conditions since mid April roughly but we will see.

I know it can be simple to think of things that way but it’s not really how it works. Sometimes things are way out of balance, like some of the very wet and cool springs of the early 2010s, or some of the more warm and dry ones of recent years. There is no invisible hand in the sky making sure there are equal periods of generally wet and dry weather alternating every few weeks. Especially if you start basing that assertion on what just one small part of the region sees.

[GeorgeWx]

Whoa

What high temperatures are you thinking?

[Front Ranger]

This seems to be aging well.

 

 

Jinx.

[Jesse]

What high temperatures are you thinking?

Brookings in July 2008 but hotter and snowier.

[TT-SEA]

I believe it does have predictive value... and of course there are extreme ends of the spectrum when it does not work as well.   But those are the exception rather than the rule. 

[GeorgeWx]

Brookings in July 2008 but hotter and snowier.

Portland May record high is 100. Hard to imagine we could break it but anything’s possibly nowadays

[Jesse]

Portland May record high is 100. Hard to imagine we could break it but anything’s possibly nowadays

For sure. Whatever happens, our third consecutive much warmer than average May is a lock at this point. At least this one will end up a little wetter than the other two. Closer to average.

[Deweydog]

What high temperatures are you thinking?

75-95.

 

It’s over a week away.

[Jesse]

75-95.

It’s over a week away.

Those would BOTH be above average high temperatures for the last week of May. Someone is feeling confident!

[Deweydog]

Jinx.

Reverse jinx.

 

Also referred to as a retrogression jinx.

[Front Ranger]

Portland May record high is 100. Hard to imagine we could break it but anything’s possibly nowadays

 

June's 102 seems like much more low hanging fruit. Especially considering 7/1/42 hit 105.

[GeorgeWx]

June's 102 seems like much more low hanging fruit. Especially considering 7/1/42 hit 105.

What day did it get to 102?

[TT-SEA]

Record highs for late May in my area include years like 1956 and 1983.   I would prefer not to see extreme heat at the end of May.    

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z Gfs gets hot next week

Models are starting to gain confidence of an early warm season heat wave as we close out May.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’ve a feeling we are going to be pushing triple digits to close out the month.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS looks interesting at hour 240. With a ULL to the south in California, the cap breaks off and convection springs up throughout western OR. Not often we see a heat wave end in a thunderstorm like that nowadays.

Yeah, I'd take what the GFS is showing. Nothing like seeing evening thunderstorms after high temps of 90+ during the day. I remember those happening more when I was just a kid, don't see those often these days.

[Front Ranger]

What day did it get to 102?

 

6/26/06

[Front Ranger]

Record highs for late May in my area include years like 1956 and 1983.   I would prefer not to see extreme heat at the end of May.    

 

Phil? 

[Jesse]

00z GFS ensembles look warmer and drier than previous runs for the weekend and beyond.

[GeorgeWx]

6/26/06

So not that long ago.