June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Nice improvements on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Next week looks pretty decent again and the 4th of July weekend looks spectacular. Too early for any confidence... but its nice to see.

Yeah, still over a week away but Independence Day looks nice.

 

[BLI snowman]

Gonna be a hot one today. Already 64.

[MossMan]

[Deweydog]

[MossMan]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Dot down to 54F, now up to 72F

[Timmy Supercell]

Looking at the Oregon department of agriculture forecast.

 

Their current analog years are 1959, 1970, 2005. They are calling for a warm/slightly above average July, slightly below average August, and well below average September. 

 

That would be two below average Septembers for me in a row, when was the last time we had a stretch like that?

[ShawniganLake]

We have a parallel GFS again? Nice!

[Jesse]

Gonna be a hot one today. Already 64.

Could be another sneaky 90.

[Deweydog]

Could be another sneaky 90.

88.

[Timmy]

Could be another sneaky 90.

is that like “a quick inch”

[Timmy Supercell]

88.

 

Dave's Syndrome! 

[TacomaWaWx]

70 degrees and sunny and it’s only 11:30am. 9 out of the last 10 days have been 70+ degrees and only one day with rainfall. Has been a really nice stretch of weather. Even the day with rainfall ended up having some sunshine mixed in. Perfect June weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

81F at 11AM in downtown Springfield. Gonna get close to our second 90F.

[Jesse]

Euro seems to be trending a little better for next week.

[Jesse]

Nice day. 75 here currently after a low of 57.

[Phil]

Euro seems to be trending a little better for next week.

Turning into an exceptionally unpredictable, high wavenumber pattern, though.

 

At least early on, the progression on the 12z ECMWF just doesn’t sit right with me.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks great. Pretty much dry next week and gradually warming up and it looks spectacular for the 4th.

[Jesse]

Turning into an exceptionally unpredictable, high wavenumber pattern, though.

At least early on, the progression on the 12z ECMWF just doesn’t sit right with me.

Translation: things are not going in the way I forecast

[Phil]

Translation: things are not going in the way I forecast

On the models? Sort of.

 

If I had to guess, there’ll probably a major swing in the modeling 2-3 days over the NPAC/western Subarctic domain, to a more climatological warm season NPO. Guidance has already missed that transition twice over the last 7 weeks..and quite substantially the last go around.

[Jesse]

On the models? Sort of.

If I had to guess, there’ll probably a major swing in the modeling 2-3 days over the NPAC/western Subarctic domain, to a more climatological warm season NPO. Guidance has already missed that transition twice over the last 7 weeks..and quite substantially the last go around.

Maybe. You seem to always play up these “cool” summer patterns (mainly to get at one person here) and it rarely seems to pan out to anything meaningful at the surface. Kiss of death usually.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

81F at 11AM in downtown Springfield. Gonna get close to our second 90F.

Another gorgeous day. About to have lunch outside.

[Jesse]

Another gorgeous day. About to have lunch outside.

Hot dogs and sunny D?

[TT-SEA]

Up to 80 here after a low of 52 this morning. Another beautiful day today.

 

It's unfortunate today is Friday and not Saturday - not getting to enjoy it as much as I wish I could. Back to clouds tomorrow though. Yay!   <_>

 

 

Tomorrow looks pretty cold.

 

Luckily it starts warming up a little and drying out already by Sunday afternoon.    Sort of similar to last weekend with a different pattern.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hot dogs and sunny D?

 

Tang and Vodka. The Astronaut Screwdriver.

[TacomaWaWx]

Tomorrow looks pretty cold.

 

Luckily it starts warming up a little and drying out already by Sunday afternoon.    Sort of similar to last weekend with a different pattern.

I get the feeling next weekend is finally gonna break the cycle. Fingers crossed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This weather has been pretty pleasant sans Tuesday. I am starting to remember that summer can actually be nice here.

[TT-SEA]

I get the feeling next weekend is finally gonna break the cycle. Fingers crossed.

 

We have a better chance at least.

 

One week ago today... I already knew this weekend coming up was going to be pretty bad.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS and the control run also look pretty nice for the holiday weekend.   The control run looks really warm like the operational run.

[TT-SEA]

78 and sunny here.

[Jesse]

This weather has been pretty pleasant sans Tuesday. I am starting to remember that summer can actually be nice here.

It has been beautiful. But summer is still young. Many are chomping at the bit for another heat and smoke filled nightmare to start ASAP, and there is plenty of time for it.

[TT-SEA]

This weather has been pretty pleasant sans Tuesday. I am starting to remember that summer can actually be nice here.

 

 

It has been lovely here since Sunday morning.    Summer perfection.

[TT-SEA]

It has been beautiful. But summer is still young. Many are chomping at the bit for another heat and smoke filled nightmare to start ASAP, and there is plenty of time for it.

 

 

Strawmen... your specialty!  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

Strawmen... your specialty!  

 

He took the bait, Jesse.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hot dogs and sunny D?

Hot wings and an ice cold beer!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Liking the early comparisons to 2016-17 for fall/winter. We had top a top tier wet October, February and March that season. Last water year that was not well below average. 

[MossMan]

It has been beautiful. But summer is still young. Many are chomping at the bit for another heat and smoke filled nightmare to start ASAP, and there is plenty of time for it.

Hellz Yea!! Bring it on!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z ECMWF looks great. Pretty much dry next week and gradually warming up and it looks spectacular for the 4th.

Independence Day is looking terrific at the moment, it trended a little warmer compared to the 00z run.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Liking the early comparisons to 2016-17 for fall/winter. We had top a top tier wet October, February and March that season. Last water year that was not well below average. 

 

A fun winter to say the least.

[TT-SEA]

He took the bait, Jesse.

I think its Jesse who constantly takes the bait. Always has to make negative retorts when anyone is happy about nice weather. Its just a reflex with him now.

 

You want nice weather?? YOU WANT TO KILL TREES!!