August 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Hoosier]

35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody south of me might get bombed with heavy rain.  GFS is farther north and puts it over me, but other models and radar trends suggest that farther south is more likely.

Have to admit that radar trends in the past 20-30 minutes have me wondering.  And indeed, the latest CAM/short range models have nudged north.  LOT has the flood watch a county south of here, so that is an indication of their thinking, but this is a nowcast type situation as these MCVs exist on a small enough scale to give the models fits.

[Hawkeye]

Models all look like this now.  Iowa needs this, badly.

12z Euro

[Hoosier]

Will county Illinois isn't in the flood watch, but they might have some problems in a while.

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models all look like this now.  Iowa needs this, badly.

12z Euro

Could be a concern if today's and tomorrow's heavy rains can overlap in some narrow corridor.  Localized double digit rainfall amounts would be on the table in that scenario.

[Black Hole]

0.61" here for the day with the temperature a cool 74F at 2:30 PM. That's a nice change! It was about 105F at this time yesterday. 
 

SPC noting a good chance of some severe weather tonight as an MCS moves in. With all the cool air and rain I have my doubts. 

[Andie]

Nice change!   It CAN rain down here.  
That’s awesome.  
We’re hoping for a break soon.  

[Hoosier]

Multiple reports of 6"+ rain in the southern LOT cwa.

[hawkstwelve]

Just got put under a tornado watch. One tornado has already been reported near Sioux Center, IA.

[Hawkeye]

The NAMs continue to shift south and have removed all rain for Cedar Rapids.  This would be a huge gut kick.  I think models are struggling to play catch-up after the potent meso low moved across the region yesterday through today.  The flow around that low is pulling dry air into northeast Iowa.

[Hoosier]

This band of rain is pivoting right over me.  Hope to see this kind of radar presentation in winter.

[Madtown]

No heat in sight....60's for highs the second weekend in August!

[hawkstwelve]

Entering the dry slot + sunset = perfect picture opportunity.

[Tom]

14 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The NAMs continue to shift south and have removed all rain for Cedar Rapids.  This would be a huge gut kick.  I think models are struggling to play catch-up after the potent meso low moved across the region yesterday through today.  The flow around that low is pulling dry air into northeast Iowa.

Woke up this morning to a gusty NE wind off the lake and is reminiscent to the storms you see in the autumn months.  Pretty interesting to see such a strong, tight spinning system this late in the summer tracking through the Lower Lakes yesterday.

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This band of rain is pivoting right over me.  Hope to see this kind of radar presentation in winter.

I was thinking about this yesterday...LOL...the next system today is what we would be tracking in a separate storm thread during the Winter called "Back to Back Sliders."

 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 79/63 there was no rain fall. The sun was out 45% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 22MPH out of the E. There were 6 CDD’s. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 102 was set in 1918 the record low of 46 was set in 1948 and 1994. The record rain fall amount of 1.40” fell in 1993. Last year it was a very warm day with a H/L of 89/70. Of note is that this year there has only been one night that it has stayed at 70 or above. Last year there were 11 such nights.

At the current time it is 62 here in MBY with light rain falling. So far there has been 0.10” of rain fall here in my yard. Today and Monday look to be rather wet and cool. And There are several more chances for rain this week while temperatures are a little below average. And yes there will not be any nights staying at 70 or above this week. If Grand Rapids does not have another night that stays above 70 it will be the fewest since 2000.

[Clinton]

Good morning from Chrystal Creek Ranch near Eminence MO in the Ozarks. We had terrific weather for river floating yesterday with Temps in the upper 80s.

 

[Hawkeye]

I'm not feeling hopeful this morning.  The global models are fine, but the HRRR and RRFS have shifted the heavy rain south of Cedar Rapids and show very little falling here.

[Tom]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good morning from Chrystal Creek Ranch near Eminence MO in the Ozarks. We had terrific weather for river floating yesterday with Temps in the upper 80s.

 

Love the picturesque nature shot and the rolling hills.  The Ozarks region is beautiful indeed.

[Stormy]

17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm not feeling hopeful this morning.  The global models are fine, but the HRRR and RRFS have shifted the heavy rain south of Cedar Rapids and show very little falling here.

I'm feeling the opposite, but I'm also a little further south. I'm riding the edge with the HRRR and had noticed the RRFS is about the only one that misses here, but I'm not sure how accurate that model is. Sometimes it seems way off. I like the WPC for here as well. Let's hope the driest areas get the most, but it's often doesn't work out that way. 

[Black Hole]

I picked up another 0.79" overnight, making my 2 day total 1.40". That was nice after 2 weeks of dry (and hot too for the last week). 

We look to be locked into a cooler and stormy pattern the next several days before the jet tries to move north again. I think Wed afternoon through Thursday morning looks like a period to watch here. 

[Timmy Supercell]

10 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Entering the dry slot + sunset = perfect picture opportunity.

Awesome! Loaded with rays too

[Timmy Supercell]

We got removed from the Slight Risk, but tomorrow looks to have been beefed up a little on the SPC map.

[Black Hole]

As I look into it a bit more, if we don't have random convection gumming up the main event, that Wed afternoon into Thursday morning period looks very promising. A number of parameters are in "outlier mode" with a very strong upper level wave, mid level westerly flow behind it, a strong surface low and front, lots of CAPE and shear, etc. We will see if we can realize the potential. 

[Hawkeye]

12z HRRR...  The heavy rain drops south before reaching east-central IA.

[chescowxman]

A seasonably warm day on tap today to close out the weekend before wet weather moves in tonight through much of Tuesday. Some spots could see up to an inch or 2 of rain. Wednesday looks like the best day of the week before more unsettled weather arrives toward the end of the upcoming work week.

Records for today: High 104 (1918) / Low 46 (1957) /Rain 2.17" (1938)

[chescowxman]

So how cool has the summer months of June and July been across Chester County PA? At East Nantmeal this is the 16th chilliest summer so far out of 130 years of data. At Glenmoore it is the 33rd coolest summer to date with 67 years of records and finally at KMQS Coatesville Airport it is the 3rd chilliest to date with only 16 years of records back to 2008. As you can see in the graph below the average temperature trend is clearly for cooler summers than in our past here in Chester County.

[CentralNebWeather]

An absolutely beautiful Sunday. Temp at noon in the upper 60’s, cloudy skies, NW winds gusting to 35 mph, and a dew in the 50’s. Late September feel?  NWS morning disco saying the pattern will not be hot for several weeks or longer. Is the worst of summer over?  If it is, we had one hot week. I’ll take that any year. 
 

“Late in the period, another cold front associated with a low passing by to our north could brush the local area Friday/Friday night, although storm chances with this system do not appear as robust as with Tuesdays upper level wave. Behind this front... continued northwesterly flow in its wake will likely persist into at least the beginning of the following week, resulting in additional precip chances and seasonably cool temperatures. Looking at both the 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks from the CPC, this lean towards continued below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances could actually continue through at least the 19th of the month, and possible beyond.”

[Andie]

105at 5pm. 
Pressure 29.9. Giving me a whopping headache.  Humidity a low 28.8.  
I think everyone is pretty much weary of this exercise.  Looking forward to any change as long as it isn’t hotter.  
September often brings turbulence aloft so let’s hope.
Not much hope on TS ahead.  We’re looking NW for our changes.  We’ll live. Not our first rodeo but it’s time for a change. 

[CentralNebWeather]

17 minutes ago, Andie said:

105at 5pm. 
Pressure 29.9. Giving me a whopping headache.  Humidity a low 28.8.  
I think everyone is pretty much weary of this exercise.  Looking forward to any change as long as it isn’t hotter.  
September often brings turbulence aloft so let’s hope.
Not much hope on TS ahead.  We’re looking NW for our changes.  We’ll live. Not our first rodeo but it’s time for a change. 

I can’t imagine going through this heat as long as you have. We have had so many breaks up here, that I feel bad when I see the southern heat. We are only going to hit 74 for a high today with temps tonight in the low 50’s. 

[Andie]

Yeah. We can’t get all worked up with envy over it.  We want cooler temps. Mid 90’s would be awesome but that’s not in the cards.  
We’re stuck under the A/C for now. I water flower pots to have color.   The bumble bees have made friends with me as the ‘water lady’ and come greet me.  The lizards recognize me!  It’s just insane!!  

It’s 104 today. A whole degree lower. It hasn’t stopped determined golfers. I think they’re nuts!!   
As soon as the slightest hint of a drop in temps shows up send up a flare!!!

Ive had a headache for 2 weeks. Largely from bad air and heat.  Looking for a grain of hope!

[Tom]

22 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I can’t imagine going through this heat as long as you have. We have had so many breaks up here, that I feel bad when I see the southern heat. We are only going to hit 74 for a high today with temps tonight in the low 50’s. 

I’ve been thinking of my friends in AZ as well.  They haven’t had much of a Monsoon in the valley yet this summer and it’s hurting the cacti and other plants/vegetation putting a lot of stress on them.  It’s supposed to heat back up into the 115F range again next weekend!   It should back off later this month into SEP.  ORD hit a high of 72F today.  Felt like a taste of autumn.

[Andie]

Hit 104* today. Felt like 113*.  
no change in sight except wildfires have begun. This one is south of me. 300 acs and growing. 

[Andie]

Local Mets are saying No Tx highs won’t dip below 100 until after the 20th.  
May as well set things on cruise control.  
Can’t wait to see rain! Edit: Farmers Almanac has released their prognostications 

[OttumwaSnomow]

Memorable  day here! 1.25"  fell today. Far out did the models I saw.  More  showers than can count and 2 periods  of heavy rain. Here the crazy truth. My wettest day in 2023!! Things have turned around with regular light  rains since about june 18th. But finally  some runoff into ponds and creeks (a little).  2.60 in past 10 days as well.  Still waiting  for some  repeated or heavy  rain to charge the creeks!

[Tom]

7 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Memorable  day here! 1.25"  fell today. Far out did the models I saw.  More  showers than can count and 2 periods  of heavy rain. Here the crazy truth. My wettest day in 2023!! Things have turned around with regular light  rains since about june 18th. But finally  some runoff into ponds and creeks (a little).  2.60 in past 10 days as well.  Still waiting  for some  repeated or heavy  rain to charge the creeks!

I got a feeling that you'll be seeing them full to capacity as the pattern ahead is looking quite active.  "Fronts, Fronts, Fronts"...maybe you'll get more of that west/east "Frontal Flavor" and deliver some heavy rains in the next couple weeks.  

[Tom]

I just had to....Snows will be coming early and often this Autumn as we enter SEP for the Canadians and N Rockies.  Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow...let's see if there are any reports of Snow come Mid August in this region.

 

 

[westMJim]

With an official H/L of 65/61 yesterday had the new record coldest maximum for any August 6th at Grand Rapids. It was also the coldest maximum for Holland and one of the coldest maximums at Muskegon and Lansing. So all in all a cold damp August day. There was 0.60” of rain fall and there was no sunshine yesterday. The highest wind gust was 24 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 97 was set in 1918 and the record low of 46 was set in 1976. The record rain fall amount of 0.97” fell in 1959. Last year the H/L was 86/74 and there was 0.01” of rain fall.

Today looks to be another very cool August day with highs maybe in the low 70’s There is a small chance of showers. The rest of the week looks to warm up to near average with some chances of showers. Next weekend looks to cool down once again with a chance of some rain. Over all a cool to average than back to cooler than average.

[Tom]

Could ORD have 3 days in a row with highs in the 70's in early AUG?  It's sorta rare territory...today's gloomy skies and wind off the lake may just do that.  Normal high is 84F and this week will mark the 1st time come Thu when the sun will set before 8pm (7:59pm).

[Stormy]

I ended up with a nice soaking rainfall total of 1.10". Mainly just light to moderate rates and no thunder. Hoping for more this week as it was very dry! Rain began around 5:00pm yesterday and ended after midnight today. 

[OKwx2k4]

Waking up under what looks like an atmospheric river today. After all the heat, it's very welcomed. Was very nearing drought category or was at it again. Had grass dying or looking burned up. Really feels like summer is ending early, though. As the models continue their waffling back and forth, will be interesting to see if the severe  heat clears out all the way back down through Texas before month's end. August is a weird weather month sometimes. 

Anyway, thankful for the rainfall. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just freshly upgraded. I believe this is the first Moderate Risk within 100 miles of my location that I have seen.

And, @Phil I think this shades you?