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August 2023 Observations and Discussion


westMJim

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August is the eighth month of the year it is one of seven months to have 31 days. It is the last month of meteorological summer and is the month that many students return to school. On the weather front with an average mean of 71.1 it is typically the 2nd warmest month of the year. At Grand Rapids we start the month off with 14H and 30M of daylight and end the month with 13H and 13M of daylight. The average H/L on August 1st is 82.4/62.6 that falls to 78.8/58.6 on the 31st The warmest August was 77.7 in 1947 the next 4 warmest are 1900 with 76.3, 1937 with 76.0. 1959 with 75.5 and 1955 with 75.0. The coldest mean for any August was in 1992 with a mean of 65.0. The next 4 coldest are 1915 with 65.1. 1903 with 65.6. 1927 with 35.7 and 1904 with 65.9. The record hottest day is 102 set on August 6 1918. The record coldest low is 39 set on August 30, 1976 that was just 3 days after the high reached 94. On average there are 3 days with highs of 90 or better in August the most is 17 in 1947. There have been many years were it did not reach 90 in August in Grand Rapids including 2019, 2017 and 2014. On average there are 9 days of 85 or better that’s right just 9 days on average of 85 or better in August. The most is 26 days in 1947 the least number of days of 85 or better is 1 the most recent year was 2000. On average there are 2 nights when the low drops into the 40’s in August with the most being 11 in 1976. On average there is 3.55” of rain in August with the most being 8.46 in 1987 and the least being just 0.13” in 1899 there have been a total of 16 years with less than one inch of rain fall in August the last time was in 1996. Last year the mean at Grand Rapids was 71.4 that is a departure of +0.3. The high for the month was 89 and the low for the month was 52 there was 4.89” of rain fall.

Some of the more extreme weather events to occur in August. On August 1st, 1993, a storm in Kent County had grapefruit-sized hail. 1964 on August 3rd Grand Rapids hits 100° August 6, 1918, Grand Rapids reaches 102 the record for the month. August 13, 2002, several tornadoes hit SW Michigan including one near Rockford. August 14, 1987, 3.61” of rain falls at Grand Rapids. August 16, 1979, the temperature falls to 36 at Muskegon. August 19 1939 4.22” of rain falls at Grand Rapids August 20th 2016 several tornadoes are reported near Grand Rapids no one is hurt. August 22nd 1936 temperature reached 98 at Grand Rapids. August 30th 1976 the official low falls to 39 at Grand Rapids that is the coldest reading for any day in August so far. There were reports of some frost in the area. August 31 1953 August ends on hot note when temperatures reach the upper 90’s  2009 August ends on a cold note with readings in the lows of 34 at Big Rapids, 32 at Cadillac and a very cold 28 at Leota. So lets sit back as we see how August 2023 plays out.

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The very heavy rain in Missouri early this morning missed Clinton a county or two to the east.  Tonight models show northeast to east-central Missouri getting hit hard.  Northeast Missouri is the driest part of the midwest, so they can certainly use some rain.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The first half of August looks to take a break from the extreme heat some of us have had recently.  @CentralNebWeatherweather looks to stay wet and the EPS and GEFS even get some precip down into north TX.

610temp.new.gif

610prcp.new.gif

GEFS next 10 days

qpf_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

qpf_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

Right on cue, a watch has just been issued. 

 

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With a lot of smoke giving the sky a milky look the official H/L yesterday was 79/56, there was no rain fall and the sun was reported to be out 49% of the time. The highest wind gust was 15 MPH out of the south. For today the average H/L is 82/63 the record high of 98 was set in 1964 and the record low of 46 was set in 1920 and 1927. The record rain fall of 1.86” fell in 1928. Last year the H/L was 84/62.

The overnight low here in MBY and current temperature is 66. The next week looks to start off on the warm side and end up cooler than average. Highs today and Thursday/Friday should be in the mid 80’s and lows in the mid 60’s before dropping into the upper 70’s for highs and low 60’s for lows at the start of next week. It should be mostly dry until late Saturday into Sunday when there is a chance of showers.

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More of the same.  110* today.  
Just brutal.  They’re forecasting next week we could level off at 100, maybe dip to 98.

I hope Clinton is right about No Tx.  We desperately need rain and a d*** break!

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton I heard the Ozarks near Osage got pounded and the water levels should rise quite a bit from the recent rains and yet again this mornings deluge just NE of the Ozarks that will flow into the river basin!

 

Some reports of 11 inches of rain between Sedalia and Jefferson city.  They needed rain real bad just not all at once.

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Lows were well below normal this morning with temps in the low to mid-50's which is over 10 degrees below normal for today.
Below normal temps look to continue all week with an increasing chance of showers by Friday and Friday night.
Records for today: High 100 (1955) / Low 47 (1959) / Rain 2.00" (1950)
image.png.c0a64c5d0a9654440bb801a8f02281bd.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Rain gauge shows 1.10” from the storm overnight. Quite a bit of standing water this morning. Many more chances in the coming week. 

Just spoke with my sister who lives north of Grand Island, and they also got over 1". And they now had around, or over 4" just since last Saturday! 

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10 minutes ago, Stormy said:

Just spoke with my sister who lives north of Grand Island, and they also got over 1". And they now had around, or over 4" just since last Saturday! 

They have been in a very wet corridor for sure. They were several inches ahead of Hastings which is just 20 miles south of Grand Island according to NWS Hastings. 

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33 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

They have been in a very wet corridor for sure. They were several inches ahead of Hastings which is just 20 miles south of Grand Island according to NWS Hastings. 

But it seemed like earlier this summer and spring they had been in one of the driest areas, so things are averaging out somewhat. We need to get a dryer corridor from nw. to se. Iowa etc filled in too yet. Actually much of Iowa is well below normal in the last 30 days and longer. 

August 02, 2023 30-Day Departure Precipitation.png

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Today through the next 84 hours or so begins the slow breakdown of the frustrating heat ridge over TX and OK. At least the opening salvo in a clash of cold and warm that will probably become a hallmarker of our early autumn pattern as the month progresses. 

Most iterations in model-land actually are leaning towards pooling up cool air in the heart of the nation. This is a great resemblance to 2009, just a month late. In 2009, the arctic had already teleconnected -AO and combined with tropical influences to begin fall early. The pattern shift happened in July instead of August. Niño hauled it from the east flank (1.2) out to 180 degrees (3.4) and parked it. The rest, as they say, is history. 

One thing that is surprising me today is that there aren't a lot of typhoon recurve situations over the Pacific to punch up the wave train in the polar jet yet and I'd have thought that would be well started by now with El Niño having rule over the bulk of the weather pattern for the time being. If the western part of the warm pool can continue splitting and retrograding west, typhoons will recurve and punch the PV.

I think the southern ridge is crying its demise as we speak. 

My region of Oklahoma enjoys a pretty huge range of weather in August. I don't know the dates or exact records off hand, I know we have saw temperatures ranging from 110 degrees to as low as 50 (maybe unofficially some 40s in valleys or near cold springs), which is pretty astounding for a warm month in the south. 

As we go on through August, I make it through the dog days by looking where the seasons are starting to change on our continent. When I see central-eastern Alaska and western Canada warm with our west coast heating up also, I know good things are coming sooner rather than later for the eastern 2/3 of the country if you're ready to cool off.

Edited by OKwx2k4
Edited typos. Modified the ending a bit for clarity.
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Picked up another inch of rain this morning… that puts us near 3” for this week alone - what an amazing turnaround here.

Some areas of Omaha on the north and east sides of the metro got between 2-4” of rain this morning - just crazy to see after being so dry this Spring. Quickly erasing moisture deficits around here, which is so nice to see!

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4 hours ago, Stormy said:

But it seemed like earlier this summer and spring they had been in one of the driest areas, so things are averaging out somewhat. We need to get a dryer corridor from nw. to se. Iowa etc filled in too yet. Actually much of Iowa is well below normal in the last 30 days and longer. 

August 02, 2023 30-Day Departure Precipitation.png

You are correct. Earlier in the summer, the best moisture focused over my area and west. 

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Sitting at 105.  It's like a broken record right now. We continue in the persistent drought area. However, I agree with OKwx24K that a change is on our horizon. 

Texas may finally return to norms. We don't expect miracles, just some relief.  The 'R' word slips into North Texas and with luck, my yard will get wet!  In the meantime, we hide from the heat and I set out water for the strays and the lizards.  It's turning out to be a bit of a local watering hole. 

Looking forward to a little of that 2009 Fall/Winter.  A chill (and some rain) will be an awesome welcomed guest!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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This is what I want to see from the EPS qpf mean... a much better outlook through mid August.

image.thumb.png.266378529eef4d67ad0ff6c3abdedd59.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I’m green with envy.  🙁

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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105F at my place today. Hottest day of the year. Tomorrow could be a touch higher still. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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We have a week of 106 in SW Fort Worth area and then it will drop slowly.  We won’t forget this summer anytime soon.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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4 hours ago, Andie said:

We have a week of 106 in SW Fort Worth area and then it will drop slowly.  We won’t forget this summer anytime soon.  

That's a pretty solid assessment. One more week in the furnace. We got this. I've got tomorrow at the peak before it comes down VERY slowly for me. 

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image.pngThis EPS pressure minimum map seems to be suggesting tropical chances increase in the Gulf mid month. Some potential a few of us could be affected by that depending on what happens. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That's a pretty solid assessment. One more week in the furnace. We got this. I've got tomorrow at the peak before it comes down VERY slowly for me. 

Model guidance in good agreement that this is the peak with plenty of rain chances and cooler temps coming up for us. Happy to see it. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Alright, alright, alright...is yet another Big ticket Severe Wx Threat looming for Sun?  The TOR magnet may yet again come into play this weekend.  I'm not a big fan of seeing any damage but the modeling is starting to show some intriguing signs as the track of our next system that will traverse the N MW/GL's region has that "Autumnal" look to it as it intensifies over the GL's.  Anytime you see a 990's mb storm in early August, you gotta believe the atmosphere is primed to spin up some big Autumn storms this season.  

@Clinton, you getting hit by those training storms?

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If the CFSv2 is right, this look spells some GOM trouble late month and towards Labor Day weekend...."Ridge over Troubled Waters"....If I remember a few months back when I was analyzing the LRC pattern, it showed something brewing up in the N GOM during late Aug.  I gotta check my notes and circle back later.

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_4.png

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_5.png

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There was much less smoke yesterday and the sky had a much nicer blue look. The official H/L was 83/65 there was 59% of possible sunshine. The highest wind gust was 22 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 82/63 the record high of  100 was set in 1964 and the record low of 46 was set in 1912, 1965 and 1966. The record rain fall amount of 1.70” fell in 1916. Last year the H/L was 87/70 and there was 0.70” of rain fall. The overnight low and current temperature here so far is 64.

Today and Friday look rather warm but mostly dry. It will be a little cooler on Saturday but still be warm on Sunday it looks like it could be wet later in the day and next week looks cooler than average at this time.

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28 minutes ago, Tom said:

Alright, alright, alright...is yet another Big ticket Severe Wx Threat looming for Sun?  The TOR magnet may yet again come into play this weekend.  I'm not a big fan of seeing any damage but the modeling is starting to show some intriguing signs as the track of our next system that will traverse the N MW/GL's region has that "Autumnal" look to it as it intensifies over the GL's.  Anytime you see a 990's mb storm in early August, you gotta believe the atmosphere is primed to spin up some big Autumn storms this season.  

@Clinton, you getting hit by those training storms?

Yes getting some light to moderate rain.  So far a .25 inch has fallen, big storms last night over central and eastern Missouri. 

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28 minutes ago, Tom said:

If the CFSv2 is right, this look spells some GOM trouble late month and towards Labor Day weekend...."Ridge over Troubled Waters"....If I remember a few months back when I was analyzing the LRC pattern, it showed something brewing up in the N GOM during late Aug.  I gotta check my notes and circle back later.

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_4.png

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_5.png

Looking forward to saying, “Adios!” To this Ridge. The air is stagnant and everyone is just so weary.  
83 at 6am today. High 106/7 again. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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39 minutes ago, Tom said:

If the CFSv2 is right, this look spells some GOM trouble late month and towards Labor Day weekend...."Ridge over Troubled Waters"....If I remember a few months back when I was analyzing the LRC pattern, it showed something brewing up in the N GOM during late Aug.  I gotta check my notes and circle back later.

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_4.png

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_5.png

It should turn very active as we get into Sept.  Gary is expecting a hurricane in the gulf targeting the Tx/La boarder and another one along the Carolina coast near the same time.

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