August 2023 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

This would 3 straight days of early morning storm events. 

 

[Clinton]

Looks like an exciting weather day Sunday for Illinois and Indiana.

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist 

 

SUNDAY sure is looking significant for severe weather and #tornado potential across IL/IN. I will likely have to reactivate storm chase mode for this setup. Monday also looks interesting in OH/PA. August looks nuts!

[jcwxguy]

Today 

[Hawkeye]

13 hours ago, bud2380 said:

 

Euro with some solid rain totals forecast for the weekend.  Hope we get some here.  

 

Unfortunately, models are drying up for our area.  Some op models now have little rain here.  The EPS is down to a half inch.  The problem is the initial weak waves are now going south, and then the main wave pushes through too early Sunday.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 85/63. Officially there was no rain fall, here in MBY I recorded 0.01” of rain. There was 79% of possible sunshine the highest wind gust was 26MPH out of the west. For today the average H/L is 82/63 the record high of 96 was set in 1988 the record low was a chilly 42 in 1894 in Lansing it was a colder 37 on that date. The record rain fall amounted is 2.12” in 1905. Last year the H/L was 86/70 with a trace of rain fall.

Today and tomorrow at this time look to be chamber of commerce type days with lots of sun and highs in the low 80’s and lows in the low to mid 60’s. Come Sunday that looks to change as we have a chance of some rain that could be heavy. Next week looks to be a little cooler than average with several chances of showers.

[CentralNebWeather]

Raining again as of 5:45 am. Was in a watch overnight, but those storms primarily stayed west of me in Nebraska and southwest into Kansas. Now I’m just seeing forecasts are upping the storm chances for tonight and again Saturday when the actual cold front rolls through. 

[Clinton]

Off and on rain has added up to .60 in the last 24hrs.  Its been great for the lawns along with the cloudy humid weather, there should be a good chance for some heavy rain this evening and then a better chance Saturday night along with some severe weather.  I'll be headed into the Ozarks for a float trip this weekend on the Current River near Eminence, MO. the weather looks to be ok, hope we can dodge the storms during the day Sat.

[Andie]

This thing just drones on and on affecting much of this forum. The south central area remains under the gun. 
Check out the article in the climate forum posted yesterday on potential cause of the heat. It’s certainly heightened this stubborn system.  

 

[Clinton]

Drought conditions have improve for much of Missouri but that stubborn band of D3 that runs through mby has been tough to break.  The next few days might crack it.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

0.30” as of 8 am. 
3.10” total since Wednesday morning. More tonight and tomorrow. 

[chescowxman]

Following clouds today and showers tonight It looks like a great weekend ahead across the area. Sunshine low humidity and temps in the low to mid-80's should make for a near perfect summer weekend! Our next chance of showers following this evening looks to be Monday night before another stretch of pleasant near normal days kick in again for most of next week.

Records for today: High 98 (1944) / Low 47 (1951) / Rain 5.83" (2020)

[Andie]

101* at 1:30.  
We’ll see 104/5 today.  
However, in Arkansas the taco party went south when the nacho cheese took a detour. 

[Andie]

5:30 and 105*

(feels like 109)

Cheese party cancelled.

[Tom]

35 minutes ago, Andie said:

5:30 and 105*

(feels like 109)

Cheese party cancelled.

It’s 78F/58F with a wind off the lake.  About as perfect of a Friday night you can ask for in Aug.  When those first autumn fronts make it down by you, you’re gonna have to celebrate one way or another!  I can’t imagine living in that heat and humidity for weeks on end.  

[Stormy]

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

Drought conditions have improve for much of Missouri but that stubborn band of D3 that runs through mby has been tough to break.  The next few days might crack it.

 

 

The drought has worsened to the severe category again in my area after being in the moderate rating for a few weeks. Was rated severe earlier in July also. 

About all the models are showing a band of heavy rain cross southern Iowa/northern Missouri tonight. I might get the northern edge. I wish it would be further north. 

[CentralNebWeather]

It’s like a broken record. Another Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I couldn’t begin to count how many we’ve had this summer. Storms should roll in after 10 pm. It is hard to describe how wet it is around here. The drought monitor is way off imo. 

 

[Stormy]

I like this day three excessive rainfall outlook from the WPC. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning just issued. Line of storms about 30 miles west of me heading east. 
 

Edit:  storms have arrived. 

 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/64. There was no rainfall. There has been no rain fall this month so far. Since June 1st there has been 7.46” that is a departure of -0.83” YTD the total is 23.49” a departure of +0.18” There were 0 Heating Degree Days for the month 0 since June 1st 28 for a departure of -15. There were 10 Cooling Degree Days so far this month 31 for a departure of -1, since June 1st there have been 404 for a departure of -29 and YTD there have been 444 for a departure of -40. The highest wind gust yesterday was 17MPH out of the north. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high is 100 set in 1947 and the record low of 44 was set in 1978. At Lansing the record low for today is 35 set in 1864. So far this summer there have been 9 days of 90 or better at Grand Rapids the average for a summer season is 10. There has been just one night when the low has not gotten below 70 we are well below the average of 9 for a summer season.

[Hawkeye]

The low passing by far southeast Iowa really dumped a bucket overnight.  Local weather stations in the Keokuk to Burlington area have gotten 4-8 inches.

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The low passing by far southeast Iowa really dumped a bucket overnight.  Local weather stations in the Keokuk to Burlington area have gotten 4-8 inches.

Well this sys literally  dumped  inches west south and east of me!!!  And tues nites dumped  torrential  rains west and south of me.  In 2023 Ive recorded just one rain over 1 inch, in march!!! Ridiculous.  Pond keeps dropping and creeks bone dry for months.   But Ive gotten  alot of crumbs. In past week 1 inch has rained on 5 occasions. So things are growing  good.

[Stormy]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The low passing by far southeast Iowa really dumped a bucket overnight.  Local weather stations in the Keokuk to Burlington area have gotten 4-8 inches.

Yes it looked like a mini hurricane spinning like a top on radar! 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DVN-N0B-0-200-100-usa-rad

[OKwx2k4]

I'm so glad models whiffed on this one. Radar looking pretty nice.

 

[chescowxman]

How chilly has it been? Well 19 of the last 22 days have featured below average temperatures here in Western Chester County. This weekend we should see temps averaging close to normal. Shower chances increase Sunday night through early Tuesday but most days except Monday this week should feature plenty of sunshine.

Records for today: High 99 (1930) / Low 45 (1951) / Rain 1.41" (1987)

[Andie]

15 hours ago, Tom said:

It’s 78F/58F with a wind off the lake.  About as perfect of a Friday night you can ask for in Aug.  When those first autumn fronts make it down by you, you’re gonna have to celebrate one way or another!  I can’t imagine living in that heat and humidity for weeks on end.  

In truth it’s manageable with a/c, however the air pressure and stagnation get to you.  I’ve done this all my life so what doesn’t kill ya…..Native Texans are a breed of their own I guess.

The first beautiful day in the 80’s I will celebrate with an “adult beverage” on the patio!!! Promise!   High 106/7 today.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Sun/Monday are now two days in a row of Slight Risks shading my area. 

We started off the month a tad quiet and with cooler highs as well.

[hawkstwelve]

Looks like it could get a little interesting this afternoon.

 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Stormy said:

Yes it looked like a mini hurricane spinning like a top on radar! 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DVN-N0B-0-200-100-usa-rad

Overnight afd from LOT actually mentioned that it had some loose tropical characteristics.

Upper-air
plots and soundings indicate that the wave has gained a loosely
warm-core response in the lower half of the troposphere, with low-
level winds near the center of the low reaching as high as 50 mph
in convection.

[Hoosier]

Somebody south of me might get bombed with heavy rain.  GFS is farther north and puts it over me, but other models and radar trends suggest that farther south is more likely.

[Hawkeye]

The new Euro is not in yet, but all other models have abandoned southern Wisconsin.  The swath of heavy rain now tracks from nw through ec/se Iowa and then turns east.  The NAM and 3kNAM actually miss me southwest.

[Hoosier]

35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody south of me might get bombed with heavy rain.  GFS is farther north and puts it over me, but other models and radar trends suggest that farther south is more likely.

Have to admit that radar trends in the past 20-30 minutes have me wondering.  And indeed, the latest CAM/short range models have nudged north.  LOT has the flood watch a county south of here, so that is an indication of their thinking, but this is a nowcast type situation as these MCVs exist on a small enough scale to give the models fits.

[Hawkeye]

Models all look like this now.  Iowa needs this, badly.

12z Euro

[Hoosier]

Will county Illinois isn't in the flood watch, but they might have some problems in a while.

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models all look like this now.  Iowa needs this, badly.

12z Euro

Could be a concern if today's and tomorrow's heavy rains can overlap in some narrow corridor.  Localized double digit rainfall amounts would be on the table in that scenario.

[Black Hole]

0.61" here for the day with the temperature a cool 74F at 2:30 PM. That's a nice change! It was about 105F at this time yesterday. 
 

SPC noting a good chance of some severe weather tonight as an MCS moves in. With all the cool air and rain I have my doubts. 

[Andie]

Nice change!   It CAN rain down here.  
That’s awesome.  
We’re hoping for a break soon.  

[Hoosier]

Multiple reports of 6"+ rain in the southern LOT cwa.

[hawkstwelve]

Just got put under a tornado watch. One tornado has already been reported near Sioux Center, IA.

[Hawkeye]

The NAMs continue to shift south and have removed all rain for Cedar Rapids.  This would be a huge gut kick.  I think models are struggling to play catch-up after the potent meso low moved across the region yesterday through today.  The flow around that low is pulling dry air into northeast Iowa.

[Hoosier]

This band of rain is pivoting right over me.  Hope to see this kind of radar presentation in winter.

[Madtown]

No heat in sight....60's for highs the second weekend in August!

[hawkstwelve]

Entering the dry slot + sunset = perfect picture opportunity.

[Tom]

14 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The NAMs continue to shift south and have removed all rain for Cedar Rapids.  This would be a huge gut kick.  I think models are struggling to play catch-up after the potent meso low moved across the region yesterday through today.  The flow around that low is pulling dry air into northeast Iowa.

Woke up this morning to a gusty NE wind off the lake and is reminiscent to the storms you see in the autumn months.  Pretty interesting to see such a strong, tight spinning system this late in the summer tracking through the Lower Lakes yesterday.

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This band of rain is pivoting right over me.  Hope to see this kind of radar presentation in winter.

I was thinking about this yesterday...LOL...the next system today is what we would be tracking in a separate storm thread during the Winter called "Back to Back Sliders."

 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 79/63 there was no rain fall. The sun was out 45% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 22MPH out of the E. There were 6 CDD’s. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 102 was set in 1918 the record low of 46 was set in 1948 and 1994. The record rain fall amount of 1.40” fell in 1993. Last year it was a very warm day with a H/L of 89/70. Of note is that this year there has only been one night that it has stayed at 70 or above. Last year there were 11 such nights.

At the current time it is 62 here in MBY with light rain falling. So far there has been 0.10” of rain fall here in my yard. Today and Monday look to be rather wet and cool. And There are several more chances for rain this week while temperatures are a little below average. And yes there will not be any nights staying at 70 or above this week. If Grand Rapids does not have another night that stays above 70 it will be the fewest since 2000.

[Clinton]

Good morning from Chrystal Creek Ranch near Eminence MO in the Ozarks. We had terrific weather for river floating yesterday with Temps in the upper 80s.

 

[Hawkeye]

I'm not feeling hopeful this morning.  The global models are fine, but the HRRR and RRFS have shifted the heavy rain south of Cedar Rapids and show very little falling here.

[Tom]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good morning from Chrystal Creek Ranch near Eminence MO in the Ozarks. We had terrific weather for river floating yesterday with Temps in the upper 80s.

 

Love the picturesque nature shot and the rolling hills.  The Ozarks region is beautiful indeed.

[Stormy]

17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm not feeling hopeful this morning.  The global models are fine, but the HRRR and RRFS have shifted the heavy rain south of Cedar Rapids and show very little falling here.

I'm feeling the opposite, but I'm also a little further south. I'm riding the edge with the HRRR and had noticed the RRFS is about the only one that misses here, but I'm not sure how accurate that model is. Sometimes it seems way off. I like the WPC for here as well. Let's hope the driest areas get the most, but it's often doesn't work out that way. 

[Black Hole]

I picked up another 0.79" overnight, making my 2 day total 1.40". That was nice after 2 weeks of dry (and hot too for the last week). 

We look to be locked into a cooler and stormy pattern the next several days before the jet tries to move north again. I think Wed afternoon through Thursday morning looks like a period to watch here. 

[Timmy Supercell]

10 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Entering the dry slot + sunset = perfect picture opportunity.

Awesome! Loaded with rays too