August 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

Wow, hawkstwelve, welcome to the Misery Club.  We do keep cold beer, and soft drinks for those affected.

It's been quite a summer.

[Clinton]

Another nice day today with a high of 77.  The heat is on its way back biggly!

[Andie]

Low of 70 in the morning !

One more day in the 90’s tomorrow.   96 for the high.  
Then it’s back into the oven on our way quickly to 108.  It’s been a nice break.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Up ahead, we have a giant donut hole of dry forming over many of us. 

Will be grateful to be on the tail end of a few more frontal passages if all works out. Otherwise, buckle up.

The models do appear to change a lot day-to-day right now, so we may see something totally different in 3 days in the extended. Hoping so.

[Tom]

7 hours ago, Andie said:

Low of 70 in the morning !

One more day in the 90’s tomorrow.   96 for the high.  
Then it’s back into the oven on our way quickly to 108.  It’s been a nice break.

 

The PHX valley finally got a good Monsoon storm that rolled through Sky Harbor last night.  Storms bubbled up right over the central valley but somehow managed to miss the airport with only a Trace officially reported!  Shucks!  This 10-day forecast is one my friends out west have been yearning for a very LONG time.

 

Edit: I just checked the radar loop off of the COD site and it looks like another batch of storms hit close to PHX area just at the strike of midnight local time which means there will be an official reading for today's almanac later in the day.

 

 

Been a long time waiting for a legit Monsoon set up out in the SW...

 

[Tom]

@iFred, any chance you looked into the glitch we are having for "reacting" to comments?

[Tom]

The sun rises at 6:00am locally and will be the 1st time past 6 O'clock in the morning...Make it a great day!

 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 76/61. There was 0.28” of rain fall, for August the total is now 2.26” and the YTD total is 25.75” There were no HDD’s and 4 CDD’s the highest wind gust was 30 MPH out of the NE. There was 33% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 81/62 the record high of 99 was set in 1913 and the record low of 40 was set in 1979. The record rain fall amount of 1.74” fell in 2016. Last year the H/L was 82/55 and there was no rain fall.

With clear skies the current temperature is a cool 52 here in MBY. The week ahead looks to start off today with sunny skies today with highs in the upper 70’s there is a good chance of rain tomorrow with cool highs near 70. Highs on Friday and Saturday should be in the 70’s before warming up well into the 80’s to almost 90 from Sunday on. Lows will range from the mid 50’s to mid 60’s

[Tom]

Gotta give the GFS credit for sniffing out this E PAC Hurricane tracking up near the Baja.  The Euro had been consistently suggesting it head west but not the GFS.  This track is now making a big dent into the projected Heat Wave over the GL's and Eastern part of the Sub.  I don't see temps really jumping into the mid 90's anywhere locally, however, those of you near IA and points west are gonna blow torch.  I feel for ya guys out in the Plains states and maybe @Clintonand the KC peeps!

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@iFred, any chance you looked into the glitch we are having for "reacting" to comments?

I already brought it up to him. He has some things to fix relating to that, so hopefully it will be resolved soon. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

I already brought it up to him. He has some things to fix relating to that, so hopefully it will be resolved soon. 

Thanks 

[chescowxman]

Humidity levels should be a bit lower today before creeping up again tomorrow before a stronger cold front move through the area tomorrow night. That will usher in some below normal temperature nights with lows in the 50's both Friday and Saturday nights. Temps both Friday and Saturday will stay below average in the 70's for high temps. We should warm to back above normal by Monday before a return to normal late August readings on Tuesday.

Records for today: High 97 (1997) / Low 43 (1979) / Rain 0.90" (1917)

[Andie]

Started out in the mid to low 70’s! 
Just awesome out there.  Humidity is low. 
Heading into the mid 90’s.  
Then it’s over and we go back to 107 tomorrow.
 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Started out in the mid to low 70’s! 
Just awesome out there.  Humidity is low. 
Heading into the mid 90’s.  
Then it’s over and we go back to 107 tomorrow.
 

It was such a nice reprieve here also the past couple days.  Woke up to a chilly 58F and now shot up to 77F.

[Minny_Weather]

I'll finally be back in this subforum's territory next year. Don't know exactly where yet, but there is a 60% chance it will be Houston, which is currently going through eternal hell.

I've missed you guys!

[Andie]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

It was such a nice reprieve here also the past couple days.  Woke up to a chilly 58F and now shot up to 77F.

We’d crawl for 77*!  

[Tom]

35 minutes ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

I'll finally be back in this subforum's territory next year. Don't know exactly where yet, but there is a 60% chance it will be Houston, which is currently going through eternal hell.

I've missed you guys!

Glad to hear!  There won’t be much Winter down there.  Why the move down south?  

[Andie]

1 hour ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

I'll finally be back in this subforum's territory next year. Don't know exactly where yet, but there is a 60% chance it will be Houston, which is currently going through eternal hell.

I've missed you guys!

Oh you ARE a glutton for punishment. 
Built in Sauna though.  And I apologize for the traffic in advance.  
I’m SW of Ft Worth. A good deal more civil, but it’s coming my way.  
A big Howdy goes out to you!

[Hoosier]

On 8/14/2023 at 12:06 PM, Hoosier said:

Big warmup on the way for those of us east of the Mississippi (west will see it too, of course), especially next week.  Obviously punt the ridiculous GFS 2m temp output though as it has been running too hot, even close-in on the hot days this summer.  Will be curious if we can get the elusive 500 mb height of 600 dm in the Midwest, which would be a rare occurrence for the region.  500 mb heights like that do not guarantee a super/historic torch though, especially in this part of the country, as it's just an indication of the overall temperature structure from the 500 mb level and below.  Evapotranspiration is likely to put a cap on just how hot it can get.

Fairly sizable 600 dm area on the Euro.  Will be curious to see if this backs off at all in the coming days (not talking massively, but something more like 597 dm instead).  In any case, a large, sprawling ridge is virtually assured.

[Iceresistance]

Videos from the August 12th storms

 

 

[Clinton]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

Gotta give the GFS credit for sniffing out this E PAC Hurricane tracking up near the Baja.  The Euro had been consistently suggesting it head west but not the GFS.  This track is now making a big dent into the projected Heat Wave over the GL's and Eastern part of the Sub.  I don't see temps really jumping into the mid 90's anywhere locally, however, those of you near IA and points west are gonna blow torch.  I feel for ya guys out in the Plains states and maybe @Clintonand the KC peeps!

Gary touches on the hurricane headed for SoCal and the upcoming heat wave.  Looks like I will roast!  Hoosier showed this just awhile ago with the large high.

Gary Lezak 

pordsneotSh330ma9cc0ii7916l55i801g1fua3u71570l92234h3l2ti6at  · 

 

Let's discuss, what may be a very dangerous heat wave.  I hate heat waves, likely my least favorite type of weather, although tornadoes may beat it, but they come with rain that we do need. This map shows a powerful "Heat Wave Creating Machine", or anticyclone. Look closely and you will see the dreaded 600 number. That is showing that the 500 mb level is over 6,000 meters above us, or 600 decameters. It has a 600 circle, so it is likely around 603 decameters. This is about as strong as they ever get. This will create tremendous sinking air and allow for a major heat wave with temperatures rising above 100 degrees for a few days and it us centering over Kansas/Missouri. On the western fringe of this monster high is a potential hurricane heading towards Southern California. I am glad I am in Colorado, but we will feel some of this heat too.

 

We are about to have Hurricane Hilary, and it will make a move towards Southern California! The tropics continue to be active over the Pacific, and we are predicting it to become more active over the Atlantic within the next two weeks as predicted by the LRC. The LRC also shows a favorable pattern for Hilary to become a hurricane and make a move towards the north-northwest.

 

 

 

[iFred]

17 hours ago, Tom said:

@iFred, any chance you looked into the glitch we are having for "reacting" to comments?

Yeah, it’s going to take a little bit of time. Juggling work and family.

[westMJim]

It was a pleasant sunny day yesterday with 96% of possible sunshine the official H/L was 79/52. There were 0 HDD’s and just 1 CDD’s The highest wind gust was 22 MPH out of the west. For today the average H/L is 81/61 the record high of 98 was set in 1988 and the record low of 45 was set in 1898 and 1976. The record rain fall of 1.94” fell in 1995. Last year the H/L was 82/58 and there was no rain fall.

At this time there is a line of showers to the NW of west Michigan pushing to the SE. That line is the best chance of showers for most of the next week or so. Highs today and tomorrow should top out in the lower 70’s In fact Friday with low dew point it may feel on the very cool side. With lows tonight and Friday overnight in the low 50’s there will be a couple of days of “don’t have to” weather that is don’t have to have the heat on and don’t have to have the air on. Then on Sunday there should be a big warm up that will last a couple of days with highs in the upper 80’s ot around 90 and lows in the upper 60’s.

[Tom]

Just saw a beautiful and loud lightning strike as I turned into the gym parking lot!  Nice line of storms blossomed and out down some good rains (0.24”) 

[Andie]

Back to Shake-n-Bake.  

High. 107 

[Tom]

31 minutes ago, Andie said:

Back to Shake-n-Bake.  

High. 107 

PHX tied a record 115F yesterday…Monsoon moisture can’t come soon enough!  

[Black Hole]

Not a lot to say weatherwise. This coming week is just going to be awful. I don't want to extend peak summer any longer than we have to. 

[hawkstwelve]

One last day in the mid/upper 70s before the heat is turned on full blast. My son has his first football scrimmage of the season tonight so going to be out and enjoying the last of the pleasant weather for a while!

[Minny_Weather]

20 hours ago, Tom said:

Glad to hear!  There won’t be much Winter down there.  Why the move down south?  

I'm from there and have family.

I may also return to the Dakotas. Things have yet to be worked out and probably won't be till around Christmas.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

I'm from there and have family.

I may also return to the Dakotas. Things have yet to be worked out and probably won't be till around Christmas.

Gotcha, makes sense...planning a comeback to the Dakotas?  Don't steel those "Dakota Cutters" Blitz storms!

[Minny_Weather]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Gotcha, makes sense...planning a comeback to the Dakotas?  Don't steel those "Dakota Cutters" Blitz storms!

Not yet, even if I don't move back there I'd still love to visit again.

[Andie]

110* !

Somebody baste me!  I’m smokin !!

[CentralNebWeather]

10 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

One last day in the mid/upper 70s before the heat is turned on full blast. My son has his first football scrimmage of the season tonight so going to be out and enjoying the last of the pleasant weather for a while!

My son is a senior and has his scrimmage tomorrow night. High of 92 tomorrow. Then the death ridge expands and covers almost all of the Central US. NWS Hastings has made some comparisons to 1936 when talking about this heat wave and if we have record heat. Looks like the worst days here are Saturday through Tuesday. Our school administration is already talking about teams having early morning, later evening, or indoor practices next week. They use the wet bulb device and if it is past a certain number, practice can’t happen outside. Our principal tested it during the hot week of late July, and he said temp, dew point, and lack of wind were off the chart. 

[Andie]

97 at almost 10 pm. 

Please!

[Clinton]

Today will be the last nice day for awhile in my region with temps in the mid 80s.  The heat gets real starting tomorrow.

 

[Tom]

41 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Today will be the last nice day for awhile in my region with temps in the mid 80s.  The heat gets real starting tomorrow.

 

My brother is heading to the Osage this Wed - Sun...it's gonna be a blow torch!  Not the best conditions to be out in the sun and drinking booze.  I heard the scene out there has grown more into a pool/bar scene instead of people drinking on the water.  The bar owners were smart about building these new spots that serve the interest of ppl who want to get wet in the pool and also have some fun.

[Tom]

An absolutely beautiful Friday is expected today with low DP's, a bit hazy skies, and temps struggling to reach 80F.  One of the biggest events of the season takes place on the water this weekend as Chicago hosts the Air & Water Show.  The practice runs take place today and I'm thinking about heading out to North Ave beach.  The Thunder Birds have a new show this year and I'm curious to see how that looks.

Yesterday, the line of showers dumped some good rains locally (0.72").  Glad we got it bc no rain is in the forecast till maybe the last week of the month!  Lot's of golden sunshine in the grid!

 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 75/58 There was a cool wind and after a short heavy shower it was cool at the Whitecaps last night as light jackets were the rule.  there was 0.50” of rain fall, the sun was out 22% of the possible time. There were 0 HDD’s and 2 CDD’s the highest wind gust was 39 MPH during a heavy shower late in the day. For today the average H/L is 81/61 the record high of 97 was set in 1947 and the record low of a cool 41 was set in 1943. Last year the H/L was 81/59 and there was no rain fall.

The week ahead will start off today with cool temperatures with a high only in the low 70’s and the low tonight could drop down to 50 to the upper 40’s Tomorrow looks to be a great late summer day with highs in the upper 70’s then it looks to warm up next week with highs mostly in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s so next week would be a great week to be on vacation.

[Andie]

Breaks over, back on my head!

Low of 84 last night. 
On our way to 110, hotter unofficially in areas. 

Who’s ready for Fall?!
 

 

[Andie]

22 hours ago, Tom said:

PHX tied a record 115F yesterday…Monsoon moisture can’t come soon enough!  

It’s been one for the books for most of us here.  
If winter snaps back proportionally it will be a very cold winter.  I’m looking forward to pulling out the coat!