November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

43 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Some Weather history for SW lower Michigan.

1930: What a difference a week makes. After record highs in the 70s only a week before, temperatures plunge to record low levels with high temperatures only around 15 degrees during the day.

1989: Severe weather strikes Lower Michigan with downburst winds and tornadoes. A tornado did a quarter million dollars of damage as it cut a six-mile path south of Portland in Ionia County. Another tornado caused minor damage over a three-mile-long path south of Durand in Shiawassee County.

Some weather history for SE lower Michigan

1995, a snowstorm hit the Saginaw Valley and continued into the early morning hours of November 28. The storm left Saginaw with 11.1 inches of snow. This was on top of an already cold and snowy month. Saginaw received 23.0 inches of snow! This made November 1995 the snowiest November in Saginaw history and also the 16th snowiest month of all time in Saginaw. Remarkably, in November 1995 Saginaw is the only November to appear in the top 20 monthly snowfalls for Saginaw, Flint, or Detroit.

USA weather history

1898 A powerful storm, known as the “Portland Gale” impacted the coastal areas of New England on November 26 – 27, 1898. The storm formed when two areas of low pressure merged off the coast of New Jersey and traveled up the east coast. This storm produced hurricane-force winds in Nantucket and sank more than 150 boats and ships

 

1995, The November to remember! Leading into my snowiest winter Kalkaska had over 64"

[chescowxman]

We ended up with 0.78" of rain yesterday here in East Nantmeal. A cold front has pushed through this AM. High temps in the low 40's should occur around noon and then our temps should slowly fall reaching freezing by around 7pm across most of Chester County. It will also be windy today and tonight. Of note some models do indicate a chance of some lake effect snow showers making it all the way across the state and reaching especially western spots of the county. So don't be surprised if you seem some flurries this evening into the night. The next 2 days will be our coldest days since last winter - we may not get above freezing tomorrow in some spots and not much better than the low to mid 30's on Wednesday. Below normal temps will continue through the week with our next chance of rain by Friday afternoon.

Records for today: High 73 (1896) / Low 13 (1932) / Rain 1.52" (1944) / Snow 4.5" (2012)

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

1995, The November to remember! Leading into my snowiest winter Kalkaska had over 64"

That November torched in the pacific Northwest, as did a couple other Novembers that featured good events to the east.

Now I'm wondering if that's an analog for snow events in the eastern US/Great Lakes region.

[bud2380]

Euro showing a major blow torch in the extended for the western half of the US and Canada.  

 

[Black Hole]

There is zero hope for wintry weather in my area the next 10+ days. I do think a few of you in the central Plains will get some snow with these ejecting systems over the next week, though it will probably be mostly minor stuff. I did like this image from the CMCE for 15 days out. Nice +PNA ridge and downstream trough over the Plains. I do think winter weather odds may pick up for somebody in the Dec 10-20 period.

[Black Hole]

EPS showing strong support for a weaker SPV through the month with a good chunk of members showing a SSW event near the New Year. Certainly good to see and may juice up the winter weather threat in January. 

[bud2380]

This could be our next weather maker with wintry precip.  The GFS shows something similar.  Below is the Canadian.  Something to watch this week.  

 

[bud2380]

Decent snowfall out of this one for the north half of Iowa and large swaths of NE, MN, and WI.  

[bud2380]

UK has the system as well, but much weaker and further south.

 

[mlgamer]

A Topeka Tale of Two Cities...

November 1-18: precip 0.01" : snowfall 0.0"

November 19-26: precip 1.36" : snowfall 7.2"

 

[bud2380]

Euro has the late weekend system as well, but is further north with wintry precip.

 

[bud2380]

18z GFS Twin Cities could be in line for a couple inches if this trend continues.  

 

[chescowxman]

So another interesting chart for those who "feel" we don't see large snowstorms here in Chester County in the modern days. The below chart in fact shows that our last complete decade the period 2010-2019 featured the most 10" plus snow storms (13 of them) then any decade in our history. Plus the 3 snowstorms in the 2010's that exceeded 20" of snow during the decade is tied with the 1890's for most 20" plus snowstorms. For the decades with the least amount of large snow events we need to go all the way back to the 1940's and 1970's. Those 2 decades both finished with less than 10 storms the entire decade that measured over 6". I suspect we are due for some less snowy decades as that is the simple cyclical nature of weather.

[hawkstwelve]

Ryan Maue started including the GraphCast model, which incorporates AI and was born out of a partnership with ECMWF and Google, on his model skill score chart.

So far it has consistently performed better than all the other models. Snodgrass seemed pretty enthusiastic about it in a recent video. It will be interesting to see if it starts being used more for general forecasting.

[Clinton]

0z NAM

[Hawkeye]

The NWS has lowered us to 3º tonight.  This snow has really put us in the freezer for a few days.

[hawkstwelve]

Speaking of the GraphCast, it's also showing the warmup in the central CONUS starting around December 6th. 

That seems to be a common theme on the models at the moment.

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Speaking of the GraphCast, it's also showing the warmup in the central CONUS starting around December 6th. 

That seems to be a common theme on the models at the moment.

I buy the warm up it's showing, +EPO and MJO will be in some warm phases for a few days should flood the central part of the country with warm air for a week or so.  By the 10th we should see the MJO in phase 7 with the AO forecasted to remain neutral or negative. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 33/21 there was 0.04” of water in 0.9” of snow fall. At 7AM there was a trace of snow on the ground.  There was 0% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 42/29 the record high of 67 was set in 1905 and the record low of 5 was set in 1969. The wettest November 28^th was in 1968 with 1.58” of rain fall. The most snow fall of 7.9” fell in 1965 and the most on the ground was 6” in 1940. Last year the H/L was 43/32. At the current time here in MBY it is cloudy and 20 and there is around a half inch of snow on the ground. 

[westMJim]

Weather history for November 28th

SW lower Michigan 1955: Bitterly cold arctic air is firmly entrenched across Lower Michigan. The high temperature at Lansing is only 15 degrees, after a morning low of 6. Meanwhile, a foot of lake-effect snow piles up at Muskegon.

SE lower Michigan  1991, a winter storm moving through the Great Lakes brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the Flint area, leaving 4.4″ of snow by the 28th.

U.S.A.  New England was in the midst of a four-day ice storm, their worst of record. Ice was more than three inches thick in many places following the storm, and property damage was in the millions of dollars. Northern New England received heavy snow with more than two feet reported in some areas. Overnight freezing rains continued through the day at Worcester, MA while the wind increased to a gale. Streets became impassable even on foot, and whole towns were plunged into darkness without communication. The storm caused 20 million dollars in damage to power lines, telephone lines, and trees.

[Tom]

My goodness, can you imagine if Duluth, MN had snow OTG???  Holy Novembrrrrrr!!!  This is some real deal Arctic origin Airmass.  Snow drought for the Upper MW needs to see some action soon...I'm thinking post 10th is when we see some NW Flow and likely PAC waves to traverse the N Rockies as the coldest part of the LRC will likely cycle through.  Remember that Scandinavian Block that was so darn persistent???  It's showing up on CFSv2 weeklies.  I'll dive in more on this later but all signs are point towards a Festive season of Storm Tracking for our Sub post 10th.

 

 

 

Meantime, Winter is Coming for our Mountains in Arizona....LOVE seeing multiple days of snow falling up in Flagstaff...

[Timmy Supercell]

We definitely have wind chill this morning. Those northwesterly gusts 20-25 mph will bite to your bones. 

[Niko]

I came back yesterday afternoon from nyc and later saw this on my phone: What a way to arrive in Detroit, Metro airport. Blizzard like conditions were reported in the city.

[chescowxman]

We are in the books with our 1st measurable 0.3" on the board from the briefly heavy snow squall

[Black Hole]

The GFS is doing some good wishcasting this morning, but I don't care I love to see it! Although in reality just looking at the set up this could easily be a bunch of cold rain or ice. Oh well, I can worry about that in 10 days if its still there. 

[Tom]

21 minutes ago, Niko said:

I came back yesterday afternoon from nyc and later saw this on my phone: What a way to arrive in Detroit, Metro airport. Blizzard like conditions were reported in the city.

There’s that “B” word us snow enthusiasts yearn for!  Nice way for Mother Nature to great ya 

[Niko]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

There’s that “B” word us snow enthusiasts yearn for!  Nice way for Mother Nature to great ya 

Yes sir...you are correct. As if Detroit was waiting for me to welcome me back...

[MIKEKC]

NAM trying to stir up some trouble on the 0z and 06z run....other data has the same storm, but too warm....

[Niko]

6 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

NAM trying to stir up some trouble on the 0z and 06z run....other data has the same storm, but too warm....

Wait till Clinton sees this. Not sure though if he is on the southern fringes of this. Heavy stuff looks just a tad north of him. Hope I am wrong.....Yo @Clinton..where r ya!!!! You have a close call here. Hope you score bigly my friend.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Wait till Clinton sees this. Not sure though if he is on the southern fringes of this. Heavy stuff looks just a tad north of him. Hope I am wrong.....Yo @Clinton..where r ya!!!! You have a close call here. Hope you score bigly my friend.

Riding the edge on the NAM.  The NAM has been good of late but I would like to see some more support.  The Canadian has some fr rain on the northern edge.

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Riding the edge on the NAM.  The NAM has been good of late but I would like to see some more support.  The Canadian has some fr rain on the northern edge.

Hopefully, this turns into a full blown snowstorm for ya in the coming days. Fingers crossed!

[Niko]

39 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

The GFS is doing some good wishcasting this morning, but I don't care I love to see it! Although in reality just looking at the set up this could easily be a bunch of cold rain or ice. Oh well, I can worry about that in 10 days if its still there. 

Hopefully, this pink shaded area extends through S MI.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Not too shabby!

[Timmy Supercell]

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

This would get me, as I'm on the southern edge of the pink area as it goes through KC.  But the 12z run just jogged north, and keeps KC in the rain.  I'm not counting on this one producing any snow for KC. 

Hopefully, this changes for you guys down the road and score some of the white gold.

[Timmy Supercell]

27 with a wind chill of 17. Yeah, had to slip a jacket on just to take my trash out to the bins.

[Grizzcoat]

technically this would be DEC- but no thread for that month yet--- GFS Friday PM into SAT AM-- same areas (if GFS is right) copy cat system for IA.

[Grizzcoat]

I started a DEC thread--

 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Niko said:

I came back yesterday afternoon from nyc and later saw this on my phone: What a way to arrive in Detroit, Metro airport. Blizzard like conditions were reported in the city.

4 hours ago, Niko said:

Yes sir...you are correct. As if Detroit was waiting for me to welcome me back...

Welcome back to The Mitt amigo. Cool, thx for posting this. Too bad I missed the chance to see the headline myself. I swear that DTW has some kind of LES magnet going. They're always getting hit at least since my move here. 

[Timmy Supercell]

High was only 34 today in Ashland, which was in the morning hours. 

24 as of 6:50pm. Can you say nippy for not even being December yet?