November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic Sea ice is building quickly. I would love to see it increase up to that 1981-2010 average. I don't expect it, but it would be great to see.

00z GFS in 57 minutes

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Arctic Sea ice is building quickly. I would love to see it increase up to that 1981-2010 average. I don't expect it, but it would be great to see.

00z GFS in 57 minutes

Almost back to participation trophy level 

[Phil]

It’s early, but interesting how many of the analogs being tossed around by forecasters (51/52, 72/73, 18/19, etc) were nearly opposite of 2023 w/rt the pattern over North America in Sep/Oct.

I have a feeling we’ll need a mea culpa at some point. Though it’s not set in stone.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

59 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

68 in Eugene at 7PM this November 3rd. I guess Oregon is just a full blown subtropical climate now.

Come on man… 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Come on man… 

I’m gonna message the local pro mets on Twitter and the folks at the airport. The station is clearly fuckked and needs to be replaced.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I messaged the local pro mets and sent an email to the airport demanding that they change the station out and that the pro mets realize it is a serious error that leads to misinformation.

[lowlandsnow]

56 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Arctic Sea ice is building quickly. I would love to see it increase up to that 1981-2010 average. I don't expect it, but it would be great to see.

00z GFS in 57 minutes

I highly doubt it I don't think sea ice has ever even been above the 2000s average since 2013

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice strong 980mb low wrapping up well offshore.

[Omegaraptor]

56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Come on man… 

LOL

Since I somehow still don't know this, which site has the map with all these temp readings?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

LOL

Since I somehow still don't know this, which site has the map with all these temp readings?

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=pqr&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true

[MossMan]

My deck has begun to moisten. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Been on and off rain that will be heavy at times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Whoa

[Gradient Keeper]

Radar Update

11/3/23 10:16 PM

The next batch of rain to move into the valley later tonight looks much more significant with heavier rainfall rates.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh shun...

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh shun...

Would love another 10"+ November. Last one was in 2006. 

Dew.

Edited November 4, 2023 by BLI snowman

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM re-cap. 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[jcmcgaffey]

23 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Radar Update

11/3/23 10:16 PM

The next batch of rain to move into the valley later tonight looks much more significant with heavier rainfall rates.

Some of those rainfall rates tonight look very impressive. Don’t think I have seen such intense projected rates outside of thunderstorms.

[jcmcgaffey]

Tomorrow afternoon looks like a fun wet and windy afternoon before it clears out.

[Gradient Keeper]

How about the Euro tonight! I'll post the re-cap shortly.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

Much improved Euro run if you like active weather, lots of rain, and good dump of mountain snow with even some in the Coast Range. This pattern doesn't resemble El Nino at all. I hope the EPS agrees!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Good night

6z GFS in 1 hour 55 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like an outstanding Euro run. 

[Skagit Weather]

38 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

It's phantom coastal snow season again!

[snow_wizard]

Kind of bizarre that a good 80% of the current analogs are from La Nina years.  Can't wait to see how the next couple of months play out!

[snow_wizard]

53 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's phantom coastal snow season again!

The trough the ECMWF is showing for week two is pretty cold, but that seems overdone for sure.

[Phil]

Big retrograde into a +WPO pattern later in the EPS run. That’ll increase vertical wave activity fluxes substantially and begin a modest wave-1 Strat PV response. Still not much Scandinavian High, but it’s early.

[Cold Snap]

Managed to get 0.20” of rain before midnight. 0.13” since midnight. 1.38” for the month so far.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looks like the front is about to come onshore. No lightning strikes right now but there is an elevated level of having thunderstorms today. Looks like we also can see breezy conditions too. It's a fun fall day in the PNW 🌧

**updated at 5:12am** 

I spoke to soon. There are a few lightning strikes out over the ocean. 

[T-Town]

61.3 degrees here this morning. .50 inches rain yesterday and .37 so far this morning. 

[MossMan]

Light rain currently.

.32” so far on the day, 1.95” for the month. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I normally drive out to Beaverton on Saturday to visit a friend. Driving here was white knuckle all the way. We are having some heavy rain in the Portland area. There is a lot of standing water on the freeways. Be careful if you are driving. Remember, don't hit the breaks, let off the gas pedal and your car will slow down enough for the wheels to hit pavement again. Have a good day...lol

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I normally drive out to Beaverton on Saturday to visit a friend. Driving here was white knuckle all the way. We are having some heavy rain in the Portland area. There is a lot of standing water on the freeways. Be careful if you are driving. Remember, don't hit the breaks, let off the gas pedal and your car will slow down enough for the wheels to hit pavement again. Have a good day...lol

 

[MossMan]

Wind! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

0.62" since midnight, 0.72" storm total. Been intermittent, but there’s been some really heavy downpours at times.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like we got a little over 1” of rain last night. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Don't have stats because I don't have a station, but just lying here in bed listening to some big rain drops bounce off the windows and wind gusts through the leaves. Nice fall storm-- not a big one, but big enough to be real cozy. Time for a cup of coffee and maybe plans for soup or a stew for dinner.