DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

2 hours ago, james1976 said:

GFS with zero precip for the TC over the next 16 days after this current system. Currently 53°

Yep, at least the first third of January looks dead for most of the north.

[Madtown]

1 of 4 brown Christmas on record at Marquette MI this year. I believe while not official we arent far behind here maybe number 10 or 15 in total. Not only that but it's been so warm lakes are no longer safe to fish on after today. truly bizarre.

 

Merry Christmas!

[OttumwaSnomow]

Im just thrilled  with these 2 systems  back to back.  .91" since 4 pm Saturday.   1.93" on  the ambient  gauge late Thursday..  lol December  turning into one of wetter  months in 2023. None was heavy,  thus  no runoff. But many hours of light  rain  past 4 days.

[Minny_Weather]

4 hours ago, james1976 said:

GFS with zero precip for the TC over the next 16 days after this current system. Currently 53°

To be fair, I think we are going to enter a clipper pattern in a couple weeks and models tend to not pick those out until a few days before.

[westMJim]

I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas. At Grand Rapids with a H/L of 57/47 the low of 47 set a new record for the warmest minimum for December 25^th  and the mean of 51 was the 2^nd warmest for the day. At Muskegon the high of 59 was the 2^nd warmest and the low of 49 was the warmest minimum. At Lansing the high of 54 was the 6^th warmest and the low of 46 was the warmest.

For today the average H/L is 34/22 the record high of 61 was set in 2019 and the record low of -6 was set in 1951 the wettest was 0.66” in 1916 the most snow fall of 11.9” was in 2001. The most snow on the ground was 22” in 1951. Last year the H/L was 23/13 there was 0.3” of snowfall and there was 15” on the ground.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for December 26 in southern Lower Michigan

1985: Muskegon sets a daily snowfall record of 14.4 inches during a long stretch of snowy weather. The monthly total for December is 57 inches.

2001: A foot of lake effect snow piles up at Grand Rapids as a week-long snow blitz drops about 4 feet of snow at Grand Rapids.

 2016, Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw set record highs of 57, 56, and 54 respectively.

2012, a large Gulf low lifted northeast along the Appalachian Mountains and clipped southeast Michigan bringing a widespread accumulating snowfall to the area. By the following morning, 4″ to 7″ had accumulated across the southeast half of the area, with higher amounts of 14″ in Lakeport and 11.1″ in Port Huron. Detroit and Flint measured storm total accumulations of 6.2″ and 5″ respectively. Further northwest, Saginaw received a glancing blow and measured only 1.5″.

1914, the overnight temperature plummeted to -12 degrees in Saginaw, which is 30 degrees below the average overnight temperature!

[Madtown]

40 on the 29th. Looks like the pattern change keeps running away!

[Tom]

It is looking like a weak little New Year's Eve/Day clipper system will traverse the GL's.  Might get some lighter snows outta this to cover up the landscape.  @jaster220 @Niko...maybe @Hoosier???

 

[tStacsh]

GRR provides a model update.   Basically,  the models suck right now and this "winter" has been terrible.  

 

- IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DETAILS UNCLEAR -     NOTHING TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE MOST WE WOULD EXPECT   AT THIS POINT IS A DUSTING OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ALONG THE   LAKESHORE AT SOME POINT FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS   WOULD BRING MINIMAL, IF ANY, IMPACTS.  

 

  WE ARE LOOKING AT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC   TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINING A TAD TOO WARM TO SUPPORT   LAKE EFFECT SNOW. CLUSTER ANALYSES ARE UNABLE TO DISCERN ANY   MEANINGFUL SIGNALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE   FACT THAT, AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, ANY WEATHER-MAKERS WOULD BE   ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE UPPER   FLOW. POSITIONAL CERTAINTY WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY   REMAIN LOW FOR A WHILE LONGER, WHICH PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE   PERSISTENT SMEARED OUT CLUSTERING WE'VE BEEN SEEING. DETERMINISTIC   MODEL RUNS ARE NOT GOING TO BE MUCH HELP EITHER; WE NOTE SIGNIFICANT   SWINGS IN CONTROL RUN SOLUTIONS THROUGH SEVERAL OF THE PAST   ITERATIONS OF THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

[Madtown]

Rare territory I tell ya.

[chescowxman]

A foggy AM across the area followed by a pretty gloomy week ahead before sun finally returns by the final weekend of 2023. Rain chances increase toward morning tomorrow with another good soaker on the way. We should see between 1.5" and 2.0" of rain. Very mild weather continues with our temperatures remaining above freezing till the weekend.

Records for today: High 67 (1964) / Low -2 (1980) / Rain 2.50" (1909) / Snow 25.0" (1909). That was the 2nd day of the 1909 Blizzard that began at 8am on Christmas Morning and lasted till 6:30am on the 26th.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Madtown said:

40 on the 29th. Looks like the pattern change keeps running away!

Pattern is clearly changing.  Easy to cherry pick a day or two to make it seem like it's not.

[gimmesnow]

 

Skiing and snowboarding for the rest of 2023 is over for southern Wisconsin. No hope of making snow until New Year's Eve. This is the most important, make or break week for ski resorts in Southern Wisconsin. Right now there are lots of people who got new snowboarding stuff and won't be able to use it.

Rest of the season is more or less ruined. Even if it gets cold, the hurt they got from the lost revenue over Christmas break is going to stop them from being really aggressive with making snow for the rest of the year. Which means a small base all year, leading to a short season because it'll end first. Even the ones like Cascade snd Tyrol Basin who are further north are barely limping along. Devil's Head isn't open, either. Even if the pattern changes in a week and turns into perfect Winter, it's over. Ski resorts in Wisconsin are just going to do the minimum to keep the season pass holders happy.

I don't recall ever seeing this in the last 14 years I've been snowboarding here.

[Madtown]

49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Pattern is clearly changing.  Easy to cherry pick a day or two to make it seem like it's not.

All I'm saying is as of Friday today's high was supposed to be 30...now 45. The coldest high is pushed out to Jan 3rd at 32 now. These temps have been pushed out since Dec 16th and keep getting pushed out. Yes a pattern change will come, but to say I'm picking a day or 2 is kinda comical at this point. Sorry for the bad example.

[Niko]

On 12/24/2023 at 9:15 AM, Tom said:

I’ve never experienced Dense Fog out here for as long as I’ve been coming out here…

 

 

Beautiful. It looks so peaceful there.

[Timmy Supercell]

Mid or back loaded winter in store for us. If I remember right, the first measurable snow in '21-'22 was in the 2nd week of January. 

This rain wasn't as wet as I imagined it would be, unless it was heavier elsewhere. This doesn't come anywhere close to Dec 2021 rainfall in Ashland. We had literal cloudburst type rains on multiple occasions that winter.

[Niko]

Merry Christmas everyone. Hope you all had a blessed day.

I swear it feels like its early April outside. Temp is in the upper 40s and heading back up into the 50s once again. Its a wet, soupy, foggy, misty day. UGH!!! I have never experienced such a warm December. Just wow!! Hopefully, January cooperates and makes up for all of Decembers loss. January cannot come fast enough, so that we can get outta this soupy mess that we are in. The weather pattern feels like its not moving at all and we are just stuck in this.

[Hoosier]

33 minutes ago, Madtown said:

All I'm saying is as of Friday today's high was supposed to be 30...now 45. The coldest high is pushed out to Jan 3rd at 32 now. These temps have been pushed out since Dec 16th and keep getting pushed out. Yes a pattern change will come, but to say I'm picking a day or 2 is kinda comical at this point. Sorry for the bad example.

Sorry if I came off as cranky.  Been dealing with covid and obviously it sucks more to have it at Christmas.  

We'll at least be getting into something that bears a remote resemblance to winter, which is more than what we can say lately.  Whether it's actually good or how many people it produces for remains to be seen.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

Merry Christmas everyone. Hope you all had a blessed day.

I swear it feels like its early April outside. Temp is in the upper 40s and heading back up into the 50s once again. Its a wet, soupy, foggy, misty day. UGH!!! I have never experienced such a warm December. Just wow!! Hopefully, January cooperates and makes up for all of Decembers loss. January cannot come fast enough, so that we can get outta this soupy mess that we are in. The weather pattern feels like its not moving at all and we are just stuck in this.

Dec 2015 says hi.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Dec 2015 says hi.

December 2021 even was twice as warm as this one. 

For perspective on that, this is a much cooler month and is still running a few degrees over average. 

[Niko]

Some improvements coming, finally!!!!!

NOAA:

Colder air settles into the region late week into the weekend as a
Canadian high pressure builds into the area. Friday into Saturday
appear to the dry with the influence of this high with temperatures
settle to around 40 on Friday and into the mid/upper 30s Saturday
(which is closer to, but still a bit above average for the last days
of December). High temperatures will remain in the mid 30s Sunday
and Monday with minor snow chances returning as the northern stream
shortwave ushering in the continued colder air mass crosses the area
late this weekend.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Niko said:

 

Dec 2015 for some reason seems  that it was colder than this December 2023......anyone w/ thoughts on this one. I messaged @westMJim on this one for more accuracy.

Dec 2015 was +9.8 at Detroit.  For the most part the Dec 2023 anomalies are going to come in under Dec 2015, except in the northern tier.

[Timmy Supercell]

45 minutes ago, Niko said:

 

Dec 2015 for some reason seems  that it was colder than this December 2023......anyone w/ thoughts on this one. I messaged @westMJim on this one for more accuracy.

It's possible that Dec 2015's anomalous warmth didn't reach as far and wide of an area as other months. Dec '15 and '21 ran top tier warm departures in the Ohio Valley at least. 

[bud2380]

Euro maybe finally showing signs of true cold air building to our north?

 

[Tom]

Nice trends to a colder look as we move into the 1st week of JAN...12z Euro OP showing a very deep Aleutian LOW that tracks west of Alaska where you want it to track to unload cold into the Lower 48.

 

12z EPS in agreement with placement...

 

 

BTW, this storm begins its journey from Japan on Dec 30th/31st and correlates to bring a Jan 6th - 9th Strong system coming out of the S Rockies/4 Corners.  While JAN may open a little quite, it will pick up in activity in the opening days.

[Minny_Weather]

7 hours ago, tStacsh said:

GRR provides a model update.   Basically,  the models suck right now and this "winter" has been terrible.  

 

- IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DETAILS UNCLEAR -     NOTHING TO ADD TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE MOST WE WOULD EXPECT   AT THIS POINT IS A DUSTING OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ALONG THE   LAKESHORE AT SOME POINT FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS   WOULD BRING MINIMAL, IF ANY, IMPACTS.  

 

  WE ARE LOOKING AT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC   TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART REMAINING A TAD TOO WARM TO SUPPORT   LAKE EFFECT SNOW. CLUSTER ANALYSES ARE UNABLE TO DISCERN ANY   MEANINGFUL SIGNALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE   FACT THAT, AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, ANY WEATHER-MAKERS WOULD BE   ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE UPPER   FLOW. POSITIONAL CERTAINTY WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY   REMAIN LOW FOR A WHILE LONGER, WHICH PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE   PERSISTENT SMEARED OUT CLUSTERING WE'VE BEEN SEEING. DETERMINISTIC   MODEL RUNS ARE NOT GOING TO BE MUCH HELP EITHER; WE NOTE SIGNIFICANT   SWINGS IN CONTROL RUN SOLUTIONS THROUGH SEVERAL OF THE PAST   ITERATIONS OF THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

That's basically what I've gathered too. The only thing I think I know right now is in 2 weekends, temps are going to get close to normal and I'm going to enter a clipper-friendly pattern. After that, absolutely zero clue what is going to happen because there is zero run-to-run consistency on any of the ensembles. Only thing that seems off the table is a Barney rampage (haven't been able to say that all year so excuse me for finding an excuse to say it).

[Minny_Weather]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Euro maybe finally showing signs of true cold air building to our north?

 

EPS showed something similar to this yesterday and then almost immediately killed it. 

[chescowxman]

Some snow drought factoids that you might find of interest. We have talked about this before but here in Chester County PA if we can just get through January 3rd without recording a full one inch daily snowfall we will set a new record for longest period between such events - our last greater than 1" snow event was on March 12, 2022 when we recorded 4.3" of snow. The current non 1" record is the only winter in Chester County since 1888 that recorded absolutely no snow at all. So nothing measurable (more than a trace) - this was during the non-winter of 1972-73. During that stretch we went from February 24, 1972 until December 16, 1973 or 661 days without a daily observed snowfall of at least 1 inch.

To help hopefully put some of this in context for all of you snow lovers out there....be very thankful you were not around to remember back when we really had true snow droughts. Are you surprised to find out that from the mid-1930's through the late 1950's. Here in Chester County we had not even one above average snow season?? (Current 30 year average 35.9") So for 23 straight winter seasons from the winter of 1934-35 season through the 1956-57 season not one winter season featured above normal snowfall - snow enthusiasts must have been miserable!!

By contrast folks today with more recent memories of here in Chester County PA may potentially be surprised to hear that the last 2 complete decades (2000's/2010's) featured two of the top four snowiest decades in our history going back through the 1890's. With my view of typical cyclical weather patterns....it would make one think we are way overdue for some non-snowy winters before the next snowy period sets in. Thoughts??

[Andie]

Moonrise should be around 7:30pm tonight.

This is the Cold Moon or 13th Moon of the year.   If you have skies clear enough toward the east grab a coat and watch the show.  

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, westMJim said:

Some weather history for December 26 in southern Lower Michigan

1985: Muskegon sets a daily snowfall record of 14.4 inches during a long stretch of snowy weather. The monthly total for December is 57 inches.

2001: A foot of lake effect snow piles up at Grand Rapids as a week-long snow blitz drops about 4 feet of snow at Grand Rapids.

 2016, Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw set record highs of 57, 56, and 54 respectively.

2012, a large Gulf low lifted northeast along the Appalachian Mountains and clipped southeast Michigan bringing a widespread accumulating snowfall to the area. By the following morning, 4″ to 7″ had accumulated across the southeast half of the area, with higher amounts of 14″ in Lakeport and 11.1″ in Port Huron. Detroit and Flint measured storm total accumulations of 6.2″ and 5″ respectively. Further northwest, Saginaw received a glancing blow and measured only 1.5″.

1914, the overnight temperature plummeted to -12 degrees in Saginaw, which is 30 degrees below the average overnight temperature!

Our good buddy @Tom wrote that one. 

[Minny_Weather]

Say it with me... BARNEY RAMPAGE!!!

This is the EPS control in clown range so it means nothing at all, but god D**n it's been so long since I've seen a map like this lol

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, chescowxman said:

Some snow drought factoids that you might find of interest. We have talked about this before but here in Chester County PA if we can just get through January 3rd without recording a full one inch daily snowfall we will set a new record for longest period between such events - our last greater than 1" snow event was on March 12, 2022 when we recorded 4.3" of snow. The current non 1" record is the only winter in Chester County since 1888 that recorded absolutely no snow at all. So nothing measurable (more than a trace) - this was during the non-winter of 1972-73. During that stretch we went from February 24, 1972 until December 16, 1973 or 661 days without a daily observed snowfall of at least 1 inch.

To help hopefully put some of this in context for all of you snow lovers out there....be very thankful you were not around to remember back when we really had true snow droughts. Are you surprised to find out that from the mid-1930's through the late 1950's. Here in Chester County we had not even one above average snow season?? (Current 30 year average 35.9") So for 23 straight winter seasons from the winter of 1934-35 season through the 1956-57 season not one winter season featured above normal snowfall - snow enthusiasts must have been miserable!!

By contrast folks today with more recent memories of here in Chester County PA may potentially be surprised to hear that the last 2 complete decades (2000's/2010's) featured two of the top four snowiest decades in our history going back through the 1890's. With my view of typical cyclical weather patterns....it would make one think we are way overdue for some non-snowy winters before the next snowy period sets in. Thoughts??

Those crappy decades seem widespread and also were lame here in SMI. Makes you wonder if its part of a longer cycle that we will never have to see again? Perhaps there was a period in the distant past when most of 2-1/2 decades had winters AN and this was nature's balance for that? We just don't really know. I'm sure there are shorter cycles buried within longer ones, but our data set is so short we'd have a hard time figuring out a 100 year event, let alone a once in 250 or 500 year event.  

[jaster220]

9 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Say it with me... BARNEY RAMPAGE!!!

This is the EPS control in clown range so it means nothing at all, but god D**n it's been so long since I've seen a map like this lol

What, 5 years prolly. Jan of '19 be my guess. 

[Minny_Weather]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

What, 5 years prolly. Jan of '19 be my guess. 

2/2021 had even brighter colors than that, it was just centered more south and west

[Minny_Weather]

I've been looking to start a January thread for a couple of days as I feel there's a bit to discuss as we head into the first weekend of January. I just went ahead and started it.

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/25373-january-2024-observations-and-discussion/#comment-1231094

[westMJim]

The biggest weather story continues to be the lack of snowfall and the very warm temperatures. At Grand Rapids the H/L yesterday of 52/43 the high was the 3^rd warmest for any December 26^th and the low of 43 was the 2^nd warmest low. At Lansing the high there of 54 was the 3^rd warmest and their low of 46 was the warmest. At Muskegon the high there 52 was the 2^nd warmest and the low of 43 was the warmest.

At this time we will have to see just how much if any snowfall we get on Sunday as at this time Grand Rapids with just 1.3” is on track for the 2^nd least amount of snowfall for any December. Grand Rapids with a seasonal snowfall of just 3.2”is also on track for the lowest total snowfall to start a winter season. One has to wonder just how much snowfall Grand Rapids will get this winter season.

For today the average H/L is 33/22 the record high of 60 was set in 2008 and the record low of-12 was set in 2017. The wettest was in 2008 with 1.51” the most snowfall of 9.0” was in 2001 the most snow on the ground was 22” in 1951. Last year the H/L was 26/16 and there was 13” of snow on the ground.

[Tom]

14 hours ago, Andie said:

Moonrise should be around 7:30pm tonight.

This is the Cold Mood or 13th Moon of the year.   If you have skies clear enough toward the east grab a coat and watch the show.  

I went out for a walk last night around the fountain and captured this moment…

[MinnesotaSnow]

It dipped below freezing this morning. 
 

#smallvictories

[Tom]

At this time, it is the coldest reading of the season IMBY...39F...Brrrr, the furnace has been turning on all night...as daylight begins to emerge to me east, it will be a beautiful sunny day.  Many locals in the desert valley have dipped into the mid/upper 30's.  Looking forward to tracking what should be the 2nd winter storm of the season as we head into next week Thursday (ish) timeframe. 

[Niko]

So far, this month my area has picked up 0.1" of snowfall. Least amount is 0.0" set back in 1889. Holding in top 5 snowless Decembers so far. Lets see how much snow we can get this Sunday w/ that clipper. Not much is expected, but we can certainly see something add up to it.