December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phishy Wx]

wonder if we can use this thing to make it snow (more)

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Even in between systems we're stuck in the muck here in the southern Willamette Valley.

You would hate it here in the winter, Tim.

It's true. Though if he lived at his current elevation down this way it might not be as bad, though around 1000' you still get caught in a lot of inversions. 

Yesterday was overcast and warm up here with occasional rain temps in the mid-50s. Went down to my Dad's for Christmas and it was socked in with dense fog and was 44 degrees. 

[Front Ranger]

The CMC shows a much more promising pattern upstream than the GFS. Also sends the first legit cold shot of the winter into the Midwest...of course, this is 10 days out.

[Deweydog]

EURO ALERTISH

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

wonder if we can use this thing to make it snow (more)

 

 

 

Thank you wx forum Twitter bot  

[Phishy Wx]

stuck at 31 with a nice icy crust on everything.  snow about 1/2" overnight then freezing mist on top.  oof

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

EURO ALERTISH

Also much better and way different than GFS.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Even in between systems we're stuck in the muck here in the southern Willamette Valley.

You would hate it here in the winter, Tim.

Very true.   We get more rain but also benefit greatly from offshore flow between systems.  It makes a world of difference to get sunny days when other areas go back and forth between rain and thick fog.  

[AlTahoe]

25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Starting to get to the point where you can't deny that CA/SW US isn't seeing the normal Nino STJ, though.

CA precip is well below almost every other moderate/strong Nino on record through December.

Yep there has never been an above average strong El Nino winter with a dry Oct - Dec before. The only other two dry ones were 1987-1988 and 1991 - 1992.Those were extreme drought years. 

[Phishy Wx]

good read right here, RE: SSWEs

 

 

 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

people are just desperate, unless you live in like Greenland on the sheet or something, you're going to have occasional dud seasons even at latitude. 

I lived on the Greenland Ice Sheet for a month in Summer 2012 and it absolutely torched, record melt at the time. No summer ‘duds’ allowed, only winter. 

[Phil]

Big step back. 

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739737310273343778?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

I lived on the Greenland Ice Sheet for a month in Summer 2012 and it absolutely torched, record melt at the time. No summer ‘duds’ allowed, only winter. 

I believe 2012 holds the record for lowest minimum NH ice extent.

[Phil]

Yikes, wave-2 transition is pathetic on 12z EPS even in members that go that route.

Odds of a “dud” are increasing for NW half of North America (if you’re hoping for a pattern reversal) assuming this isn’t a blip.

[Deweydog]

Found out yesterday that one of my nephews has officially caught the bugg. Proof that genetics in some is ABSOLUTELY a part weather nerdery. Can’t tell you how many fights with my old man ended with me storming out of the room and yelling “I’M SORRY I WAS BORN THIS WAY!”

It was a lot of fun sitting with him for about an hour and I gave him the run down on how to read models, soundings, meteograms, differences between ops/ensembles, model bias tendencies, etc. We did NOT touch on SSW’s though. You could tell he was seriously infected with the virus and the poor kid has a long road to recovery ahead of him in a warming climate. Reminded me of my grandpa and I as he definitely passed on a lot of geekery as he of would mesmerize me with stories of January 1969 and such. Nice to know there will be some new guard in the family though.

[Phil]

Still a friendly stratosphere-troposphere exchange overall and indeed it appears a -NAO/-NAM state is favored for 2nd half of winter, but that slim shot at a wild blocked up pattern with widespread action seems to be slimmer.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Ended up with 0.75" from yesterday's system. Now at 11.08" for December.

Currently sunny and 47.5˚F.

[Phil]

Ironically the pullback in the strat is also the reason the 12z EPS trended colder over North America. Pattern leading up to SSWEs can be quite warm in North America.

I guess I’ll take it. But would sacrifice the first 3 weeks of January to knock out the vortex if I had a choice.

[AbbyJr]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Big step back. 

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739737310273343778?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Hopefully just a blip.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I believe 2012 holds the record for lowest minimum NH ice extent.

Also a one-in-100 year heatwave in Greenland.

[Phishy Wx]

35 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

I lived on the Greenland Ice Sheet for a month in Summer 2012 and it absolutely torched, record melt at the time. No summer ‘duds’ allowed, only winter. 

I remember

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Lots of pretty yellow colors showing up on the Euro:

50 burgers, 50 burgers, have we got 50 burgers!

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ironically the pullback in the strat is also the reason the 12z EPS trended colder over North America. Pattern leading up to SSWEs can be quite warm in North America.

I guess I’ll take it. But would sacrifice the first 3 weeks of January to knock out the vortex if I had a choice.

You'll be fine either way.

PNW folks are probably screwed or not either way.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

You'll be fine either way.

PNW folks are probably screwed or not either way.

You’re doing your very best to jinx me, aren’t you? 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4.5" of snow yesterday afternoon and overnight.  Not bad, good to see snow on the ground again.  

Actually we are over 30 inches for the month, which is pretty close to normal.

[snow_wizard]

No matter how you slice it the rest of this month looks like a steaming pile of crap.  If we can pull off even a somewhat decent January it would be a big win though.

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No matter how you slice it the rest of this month looks like a steaming pile of crap.  If we can pull off even a somewhat decent January it would be a big win though.

Anything under like, a +2 in January would be a solid win at this point.

[Phil]

Though if you change the latitudes a bit the wind reversal is still there. 60N/10mb mean is easterly on 12z EPS, but not 60-90N.

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

Big step back. 

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739737310273343778?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Seems really suspect.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Though if you change the latitudes a bit the wind reversal is still there. 60N/10mb mean is easterly on 12z EPS, but not 60-90N.

Makes sense.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Anything under like, a +2 in January would be a solid win at this point.

The models have bene hinting at something a fair bit better than that.  Still undecided.

[Slushy Inch]

Control again. I’m ok with 2019 redux

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Though if you change the latitudes a bit the wind reversal is still there. 60N/10mb mean is easterly on 12z EPS, but not 60-90N.

Wait I’m wrong again.  This is the 101 member extended range EPS. Allan Huffman posted the 15-day EPS that runs twice daily.

[Phishy Wx]

Euro locked and loaded on the SSWE

save winter with a fun Feb? (again).  Re: 2019?

[snow_wizard]

The SSW has / is happening.  We'll just have to wait and see how the wind reversal plays out.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Euro locked and loaded on the SSWE

save winter with a fun Feb? (again).  Re: 2019?

Don't give up on January yet.  With a strong Nino Feb is exceedingly unlikely to deliver.  Who knows though.

[snow_wizard]

I've seen much worse.

[AbbyJr]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Don't give up on January yet.  With a strong Nino Feb is exceedingly unlikely to deliver.  Who knows though.

Agreed.

While the odds are still in favour of a dud this winter in the PNW, anything can happen if there is a major SSW event.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

Agreed. While the odds are still in favour of a dud this winter in the PNW, anything can happen if there is a major SSW event.

agree but given the surface translation wouldn't early feb be the sweet spot?

[AbbyJr]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wait I’m wrong again.  This is the 101 member extended range EPS. Allan Huffman posted the 15-day EPS that runs twice daily.

This probably means the 12Z EPS backing off on the SSWE was likely a blip, right?