January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Ya, the Operational models definitely backed off the Arctic connection in recent runs but the GEFS continue to show a number of good hits and trends are (+)....

That's the unfortunate thing... less cold air to work with now, which would also reduce the lake contribution to snow amounts.

[Tony]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That's the unfortunate thing... less cold air to work with now, which would also reduce the lake contribution to snow amounts.

The lake warm waters could also be concerning with the lack of true artic air. Places close to the lake could see more rain than snow I would think in this setup unfortunately.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 06z GFS...

[Money]

Gfs says what storm?

[uticasnow]

Sorry for my ignorance, but is the one on the right the most current?

[Tom]

Just now, uticasnow said:

Sorry for my ignorance, but is the one on the right the most current?

The left pic...

[jcwxguy]

That gfs run was garage. More interested in the ensembles..may still be ok run for lakes though  

[hawkstwelve]

Just now, uticasnow said:

Sorry for my ignorance, but is the one on the right the most current?

Side-by-side comparisons, at least ones that I post, will always have the newest run on the left.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z CMC...

 

[jcwxguy]

CMC still has it

[uticasnow]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Side-by-side comparisons, at least ones that I post, will always have the newest run on the left.

Thanks!

[jcwxguy]

Usually the day 6/7 gfs has issues and gets better. Hopefully this is the case 

[hawkstwelve]

GFS and CMC snowfall comparisons with previous runs...

[Tom]

The last 10 runs off the GFS Op...3 days ago it had the arctic connection, then the medium range "Mayhem", but the recent run is trying to go back to the original idea of a deep low with a Polar connection later in the run.

[hawkstwelve]

1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

Usually the day 6/7 gfs has issues and gets better. Hopefully this is the case 

This is so true. For whatever reason, we are now right at the timeframe where the GFS usually does a huge pullback and makes everyone say "winter cancel" only to revert back within a few model cycles and show what it had been showing just 24-48 hours earlier. I'd be curious to know what causes that fakeout. Doesn't happen every time but it happens enough where it's noticeable. Heck, it even happened with the Christmas storm just a week or so ago.

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS with the next system just a couple days later...

[hawkstwelve]

If I didn't know any better I'd say the GFS saw my red circle area from earlier and said "not so fast". Maybe other folks should start drawing red circles and it'll listen to them too. 

[Cfweather]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest NBM pared back totals pretty much across the board when compared to its previous run but especially within the area circled in red. Latest run cut totals in half within that area. North of the red area should be able to score some snow with the defo band from the initial low on Friday and below that area will get to work with the larger system on the 9th. Unfortunately, SE SD and into N IA look to be between the various systems and chances are looking increasingly less likely for any meaningful snowfall, barring big swings in the models down the home stretch. 

Hopefully the storm train will continue and that area can get filled in a bit more. As it stands now, these are the exact same spots that have found a way to get screwed so far this season so I'm not really holding my breath. 

At least part of that area has been in an extreme drought since early summer

[jcwxguy]

[Hoosier]

52 minutes ago, Tony said:

The lake warm waters could also be concerning with the lack of true artic air. Places close to the lake could see more rain than snow I would think in this setup unfortunately.

That's definitely a concern, at least early on because of the marginal antecedent airmass.  I would think with a GFS/Euro type track/solution that the dynamics would be able to overcome and flip the lakeshore to snow.  Lake temps are currently closer to 40 than 50... the latter would be a big problem (think what happened lakeside in the 11/21/2015 storm).  Really have to get the track nailed down first though because a farther north track like the GEM would introduce ptype concerns in much of Chicago metro irrespective of the lake.

[Black Hole]

14 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I know everyone's focused on the upcoming snow chances.  But I've also been watching forecasts for really cold air to finally make its way down here.  Based on the 500mb pattern/blocking, it looks like some really cold stuff should be moving down.  Greenland block and Alaskan ridge.

 

But the GFS has been trending away from really cold stuff coming down.  It's basically just seasonal temps.  Anyone have any thoughts on why that is?  

A lot of times I like to look for a "bridge" between AK and the Greenland block. The GFS does this by the end with the cold starting to sink south. In this case that little cut off off the coast might be holding heights up along the western axis...if it merges with the main low pressure it might help pull some cold south by the runs end. Perhaps anyway lol

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[westMJim]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Man the runs and ensembles have been so consistent.  I still won't look again until thursday lol

Don't worry there is still a lot that can go wrong. It will either be to the north or south of us, but you know how that goes.

[Madtown]

12z GFS gives some hope up this way

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Madtown said:

12z GFS gives some hope up this way

GFS was a little weird.  Almost like a subsidence zone in between, leading to that depiction of a gap in amounts in parts of WI, IL, etc

[james1976]

FWIW the CMC has been pretty steady on a north solution. 

[Minny_Weather]

Fired up a thread for the main low ONLY, discussion of any other shortwaves or clippers around the same time will stay in here

 

[gimmesnow]

That's so GFS to have runs saying one area is going to get hammered, only to completely invert the areas going to get snow. Only to come back once again where the storm is nothing and everyone loses.

[hawkstwelve]

2nd system next week on the 12z Euro is looking better for my area and Iowa folks...

[hawkstwelve]

Ok, what's going on? First the GFS and now the Euro is filling in my red circle area from earlier better than any previous run.

That's some serious red circle power right there! At least for now...

[Minny_Weather]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

2nd system next week on the 12z Euro is looking better for my area and Iowa folks...

Has the looks of a clipper, I'd expect that to trend north. Definitely worth watching, I wouldn't mind you cashing in from that.

[hawkstwelve]

Roughly 30% of EPS members keep Sioux Falls under 2 inches all next week. 18% show 5+ inches. The remaining 52% are somewhere in-between. GEFS shows 33% under 2 inches, 43% at 5+ inches, 24% are somewhere in-between. GEPS shows 15% under 2 inches, 40% are 5+ inches, and 45% are in-between.

What those percentages tell me is things are still very much up in the air but in general, at this point in time, a good bet would land me in the 'in-between' category. Although I'd say there is still a high boom/bust potential. Honestly, as long as I can get more than inch, I'm going to call it a win given how this season has gone so far.

Here's some percentages for a couple other spots. I counted these by hand so they are rough numbers but should be a fairly close representation of where things sit at the moment. Percentages are under 2 inches/5+/in-between and are good for totals through the evening on 1/14. Should be interesting to see how these numbers move over the next 2-3 days...

Omaha

EPS: 32%/30%/38%

GEFS: 40%/57%/3%

GEPS: 10%/85%/5%

Kansas City

EPS: 20%/50%/30%

GEFS: 40%/30%/30%

GEPS: 15%/70%/15%

Des Moines

EPS: 30%/40%/30%

GEFS: 30%/53%/17%

GEPS: 0%/80%/20%

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS with a parade of storms over the next two weeks that just continue to dump snow on a large section of the central US.

[gabel23]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GFS with a parade of storms over the next two weeks that just continue to dump snow on a large section of the central US.

Man that would do wonders for a lot of us on here!! Come on!

[Hoosier]

Had to do a double take on that system after 300 hours.  964 mb in WI... wow.

[james1976]

Very active pattern we are getting into. Finally. And I think some of us will make up for the slow start.

[Madtown]

LOCK. IT. IN!

[Minny_Weather]

EPS has some rather bombastic runs re: the storm in 2 weeks, as well.

 

And a couple of members have it as a nor'easter

 

... And most members have no storm at all.

[Clinton]

0z GFS with another storm on the heels of next week's big one.  Might be good for folks up north.