January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Grizzcoat]

From DMX AFD this morning-

Details: The potent shortwave trough that brought snow to many
portions of the state yesterday afternoon and evening and even our
second and third snow squall warnings ever at WFO Des Moines is
now centered over southern Wisconsin.

[Clinton]

Burrr,  Good luck if your going to the Chiefs game Saturday.

[Clinton]

Wind Chill headlines coming and a list of records that could be broke over the next week.

At this time, we are looking into issuance of Wind Chill headlines
for the upcoming event, as we are highly confident in the
possibility of temperatures falling into criteria. However, we will
hold off on issuance for the time being in interest of collaboration
with neighbors on the extent and duration of Wind Chill headlines.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 300 AM CST THU JAN 11 2024

----------------------SATURDAY (1/13)----------------------

                       RECORD LOW        FORECAST LOW
Kansas City (MCI):     -14 (1916)             -3
KC Downtown:            -4 (1963)              0
St. Joseph:            -19 (1916)             -4
Kirksville:             -8 (1963)             -1
Sedalia:                -3 (1997)              3

                     RECORD COLD HIGH    FORECAST HIGH
Kansas City (MCI):       1 (1916)              6
KC Downtown:            12 (1982)              8
St. Joseph:             -2 (1919)              6
Kirksville:             11 (1957)              8
Sedalia:                11 (1997)             12


----------------------SUNDAY (1/14)----------------------

                       RECORD LOW        FORECAST LOW
Kansas City (MCI):     -10 (1979)            -10
KC Downtown:            -5 (1979)             -8
St. Joseph:            -16 (1979)            -13
Kirksville:            -16 (1979)            -12
Sedalia:                 2 (1997)             -7

                     RECORD COLD HIGH    FORECAST HIGH
Kansas City (MCI):       0 (1979)              0
KC Downtown:             5 (1979)              3
St. Joseph:              0 (1979)             -1
Kirksville:              9 (1972)             -1
Sedalia:                18 (2005)              4


----------------------MONDAY (1/15)----------------------

                       RECORD LOW        FORECAST LOW
Kansas City (MCI):     -10 (1979)            -12
KC Downtown:            -9 (1972)             -9
St. Joseph:            -16 (1979)            -14
Kirksville:            -18 (1972)            -16
Sedalia:                -3 (2009)             -9

                     RECORD COLD HIGH    FORECAST HIGH
Kansas City (MCI):       6 (1972)              3
KC Downtown:             6 (1972)              6
St. Joseph:              4 (1972)              3
Kirksville:             -3 (1972)              1
Sedalia:                12 (2009)              5


----------------------TUESDAY (1/16)----------------------

                       RECORD LOW        FORECAST LOW
Kansas City (MCI):     -13 (1977)             -9
KC Downtown:            -1 (2018)             -7
St. Joseph:            -12 (1977)            -12
Kirksville:             -9 (2009)            -13
Sedalia:                -3 (2018)             -8

                     RECORD COLD HIGH    FORECAST HIGH
Kansas City (MCI):       1 (1977)             12
KC Downtown:             9 (1982)             15
St. Joseph:             -1 (1982)             12
Kirksville:              8 (1957)              9
Sedalia:                10 (2018)             13

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/30 there was 1.5” of snowfall and at 7AM there was 5” of snow on the ground. The highest wind was 34 MPH out of the west, there was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/19 the record high of 58 was in 2018 and the record low of -21 was in 1979. The wettest was 2.02” in 2020 the most snowfall of 6.9” was in 1991. The most snow on the ground was 19” in 1999. Last year the H/L was 47/31.  

If anyone is wondering the records snowfall at Grand Rapids for this weekend are for Friday 10.0” in 1918 For Saturday 10.5” in 1979 and 7.2” in 1963 for Sunday

 

[chescowxman]

Power is still out in many spots including here in East Nantmeal. We should see some sun today before clouds start increasing again tomorrow ahead of another rainstorm. Rain arrives tomorrow evening after rush hour and will continue into Saturday. It looks like an unneeded 0.75" to 1.25" of rain are possible across the county. Much colder air with our pattern change arrives on Sunday and temps across some spots of the county may begin a stretch of temps failing to reach freezing for much of next week. There will also be a couple of chances of snow the first event possible late Monday into Tuesday and another one late in the week.

Records for today: High 67(1975) / Low -5 (1981) / Rain 1.19" (1924) / Snow 7.2" (1922)

[westMJim]

Here is some weather history for southern Lower Michigan for January 11

1890: Temperatures reach a record high of 63 degrees at Lansing during one of the warmest Januarys on record.

1979: Arctic air and a deep snow cover combine to drop the temperature to a record low of 21 below zero at Grand Rapids.

2005, the city of Maybee in Monroe County received 7.2 inches of snowfall from a passing snowstorm.

Across the USA 

1898:  An estimated F4 tornado struck the city of Fort Smith, Arkansas, just before midnight. The tornado, which touched down about 100 miles southwest of town, killed 55 people and injured 113 others along its track

1918: A powerful area of low pressure brought snow and bitterly cold temperatures to Chattanooga, Little Rock, and Shreveport. Birmingham, Alabama, picked up an inch of snow. In far southeastern Alabama, an estimated F3 tornado virtually damaged every building in the town of Webb. The tornado leveled one rural school, killing one teacher and seven students.

1963: An F2 tornado was reported in Scott County, Indiana, north of Louisville, Kentucky. It was on the ground for 5 miles north of Scottsburg and damaged or destroyed several homes and barns.

1972: Downslope winds hit the eastern slopes of the Rockies in northern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. Boulder CO reported wind gusts to 143 mph and twenty-five million dollars in property damage.

2010: Bitter cold temperatures gripped central and southern Florida with lows in the teens and 30s.

[Tom]

8 hours ago, BMT said:

 

IMG_4721.mov 15.57 MB · 4 downloads  

 

 

 

That is so gorgeous!  I've experienced something very similar back in Chi...snow on snow with low viz...can't get better than that!  Many of you are reeling in some very good memories that will last a long time.  This JAN is gonna go down in the books as a memorable one for a lot of you guys in the MW and Lower Lakes.  

[Tom]

#BuildThe2024Glacier...I know there are some members on here who have been left out of the game of seeing snow, but the opportunities will continue to come as we roll through mid and late JAN.  From a winter wx enthusiast, I feel your emotional pain bc there were too many seasons that the same happened to me living in Chicago.  Apparently, my move from Chicago to Arizona has opened the doors for snow back home!  LOL...but in all honesty, I still have fun tracking winter storms from afar even though it won't be snowing outside my window...unless, of course, I'm up in the mountains somewhere.  

On this day, 45.3% of the nation is under some snow pack...what will this map look like over the next week?  I do see a SER developing post 20th but that bodes well for some cutters and a healthy storm generating pattern for those in the Plains into the MW/OHV.  My eyes are going to be glued for a significant system(s) around the 22nd - 26th (I adjusted my LR call a day later).  Slow mover?  Multi-day winter storm?  Should be an interesting period as there will be plenty of cold around and HP hovering across the Upper MW/GL's to "seed the cold."

 

What happens post 25th?  IMHO, we will start to enter another cold pattern with more of a NW Flow aloft and this could be the beginning of a "Frigid February" for most of the Eastern CONUS.

JMA Week 2...wet signal for the later parts of Week 2 during the potentially active winter wx period.

 

Looks like there will be cold air to support more snow for those farther south??

 

Week 3-4...

 

This is when it could get Balls Out wicked cold...nice signal for an active STJ...definitely a lack of any potential cutters as the pattern aloft turns more out of the NW....however, we should see PAC waves skoot out of the CO Rockies and develop across the heartland.

Wet signal for the 4 corners into the Plains/MW...

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Flakes fell pretty much all day yesterday and last night. Didn't amount to much, about an inch total, but keep piling it on. 0°F.

[Clinton]

I had been thinking the cold would break toward the end of the month and we'd have a 2 week period of above normal temperatures across most of the sub, I no longer believe that will happen.  I've been reading a lot from Bastardi about El Nino winters and how the MJO cycling through the warm phases of 4,5, and 6 can produce major artic outbreaks especially with a negative AO and NAO.  He continues to use 1978 as an analog where this very thing happened.  Add in its a Modoki El Nino and there is no reason to think the snow will shut off in Iowa and the Midwest any time soon.

Looking ahead at the GEFS and the JMA you showed it looks like only a relaxation of the extreme cold looks likely.

 

 

 

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I had been thinking the cold would break toward the end of the month and we'd have a 2 week period of above normal temperatures across most of the sub, I no longer believe that will happen.  I've been reading a lot from Bastardi about El Nino winters and how the MJO cycling through the warm phases of 4,5, and 6 can produce major artic outbreaks especially with a negative AO and NAO.  He continues to use 1978 as an analog where this very thing happened.  Add in its a Modoki El Nino and there is no reason to think the snow will shut off in Iowa and the Midwest any time soon.

Looking ahead at the GEFS and the JMA you showed it looks like only a relaxation of the extreme cold looks likely.

 

 

 

Great stuff and I personally feel that there will be some records set for snow, cold and the longevity of the snow pack this year.  Some folks on here are just starting to witness a special winter in the works.  

[East Dubzz]

Got about 2.2" or so last night. Light and easy to move around this morning. 

[Grizzcoat]

Anybody know what's going at KLNK (Lincoln,NE) -- no weather observations transmitted in the last 20 hours. Supposed to be done LAWRS (ATC)-- apparently not backing up ASOS. NO weather (NIL) being reported makes it illegal per FAA regs for commercial aircraft to land or take off. Not a good situation especially with a Winter Storm approaching.

Last report was yesterday 12:54 pm

Data at: 1532 UTC 11 Jan 2024

KLNK 101854Z 23007KT 10SM CLR M02/M07 A2939 RMK AO2 SLP967 T10171067

 

[Grizzcoat]

12Z GFS says Nanook of The North returns a little over a week from now.

 

[winterfreak]

Some snow melt today with temperatures in the mid 30s. Looks like what’s left after today won’t be going anywhere for a bit. The extended is looking bone dry and frigid.

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

12Z GFS says Nanook of The North returns a little over a week from now.

 

So different from the last two Winters here. Even though there hasn’t been much snow here recently (last two winters were less than half of our 28 inch seasonal average), what made things worse is that anytime we had snow on the ground it seemed to melt off in a few days. Really liking the fact that we look to have a decent snow cover here for an extended period of time. Haven’t seen a pattern like this here since 2021 (especially 2019, when we had the record breaking spring floods). 

[Grizzcoat]

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Anybody know what's going at KLNK (Lincoln,NE) -- no weather observations transmitted in the last 20 hours. Supposed to be done LAWRS (ATC)-- apparently not backing up ASOS. NO weather (NIL) being reported makes it illegal per FAA regs for commercial aircraft to land or take off. Not a good situation especially with a Winter Storm approaching.

Last report was yesterday 12:54 pm

Data at: 1532 UTC 11 Jan 2024

KLNK 101854Z 23007KT 10SM CLR M02/M07 A2939 RMK AO2 SLP967 T10171067

 

Back up and transmitting ob's!!!  24 hours nap job -- whatever it is , doesn't look good for LAWRS / ATC doing weather rather than a trained professional that's only job IS weather.

Data at: 2037 UTC 11 Jan 2024

KLNK 111954Z 03016KT 10SM BKN100 M11/M16 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP120 T11111161
KLNK 111854Z 03017KT 10SM SCT110 M11/M16 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP130 T11111161
KLNK 101854Z 23007KT 10SM CLR M02/M07 A2939 RMK AO2 SLP967 T10171067
KLNK 101754Z 21009KT 10SM CLR M03/M08 A2942 RMK AO2 SLP977 T10281078 11028 21106 58013

[jcwxguy]

26 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Back up and transmitting ob's!!!  24 hours nap job -- whatever it is , doesn't look good for LAWRS / ATC doing weather rather than a trained professional that's only job IS weather.

Data at: 2037 UTC 11 Jan 2024

KLNK 111954Z 03016KT 10SM BKN100 M11/M16 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP120 T11111161
KLNK 111854Z 03017KT 10SM SCT110 M11/M16 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP130 T11111161
KLNK 101854Z 23007KT 10SM CLR M02/M07 A2939 RMK AO2 SLP967 T10171067
KLNK 101754Z 21009KT 10SM CLR M03/M08 A2942 RMK AO2 SLP977 T10281078 11028 21106 58013

KFET in Fremont has been down for a long time 

[Beltrami Island]

4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

12Z GFS says Nanook of The North returns a little over a week from now.

 

Something about a 1058mb High pressure over Montana and not breaking -20 over the prairie provinces seams wrong.  I'd expect widespread -20s, some -30s and maybe approaching -40 in a few spots.  Or, is this just unreliable to look at specific surface temps this far out. 

[westMJim]

As we wait for the snow to start. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 37/30 there was 0.9” of snowfall. The day started with 5” on the ground. There was 6% of possible sunshine. For today the official H/L is 31/19 the record high of 57 was in 2013 and the record low of -14 was set in 1918. 1918 also seen the record snow fall of 10.0” at Grand Rapids and the record snowfall of 8.0” at Muskegon at Lansing the record snowfall for today is 5.0” in 1867. The most snow on the ground was 22” in 1918. Last year the HL was 43/35.

[chescowxman]

Some lows around the county this AM- East Nantmeal Twp. 29.1 / Atgen 33.6 / Chester Springs 25.7 / Devault 26.1 / Warwick Twp. 23.3 / Glenmoore 27.9 / West Chester 25.0 / Kennett Square 26.0. Flash flood watch tonight with rain arriving from SW to NE across the area after 7pm. We could see around additional inch or more of unneeded rain across the area. Temps will rise tonight to the low 50's before falling all day tomorrow with temps falling below freezing by 6pm. Sunday should see highs into the upper 30's but that may be our last day above freezing for at least the next week. Additionally, snow chances will increase by Tuesday. Of note if and a big if... we do see any snow a couple models are hinting at temperatures near zero by Thursday morning this assumes there is some snow cover.

Records for today: High 64 (2020) / Low minus 7 (1981) / Rain 1.98" (1983) / Snow 5.0" (1982)

[Ottawa CO, MI]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

As we wait for the snow to start. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 37/30 there was 0.9” of snowfall. The day started with 5” on the ground. There was 6% of possible sunshine. For today the official H/L is 31/19 the record high of 57 was in 2013 and the record low of -14 was set in 1918. 1918 also seen the record snow fall of 10.0” at Grand Rapids and the record snowfall of 8.0” at Muskegon at Lansing the record snowfall for today is 5.0” in 1867. The most snow on the ground was 22” in 1918. Last year the HL was 43/35.

We are due Jim...

[Iowawx]

How's the rest of this month looking pattern wise around here? It would be nice to keep the storm train going around here. 

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Iowawx said:

How's the rest of this month looking pattern wise around here? It would be nice to keep the storm train going around here. 

We get a reinforcing shot of artic air next weekend and then the pattern flips to mild for the rest of the month with marginal precip chances 

[Niko]

Brutal arctic air coming w possible below zero readings coming up. W a snowcover around, chances are pretty good. This looks to be a long stretch of bitter cold air. I think last time it went below zero or near zero was in 2022.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Canadian turning very snowy. Ok then. 

[Madtown]

uggg

[westMJim]

I know there are some who love the cold and snow and some who do not like it as much. While the start of this winter season has been one for the people who do not like the snow and cold the winter of 1978/79 was one for the ones who do like it.

Starting on November 27^th 1978 Grand Rapids had 2” of snow on the ground and there was at least 1” of snow on the ground for every day up to March 14^th 1979 that is a string of 108 days in a row of 1” or more on the ground.  All 31 days of December 1978 had 2” or more topping out at 8”. The end of December seen a snowstorm with 8” on New Year’s Eve 1.8” more on New Year’s Day. On New Year’s Day there was 11” of snow on the ground that was the least amount of snow on the ground that month. As every day in that January had more than 11” on the ground. There was a several day snow event with a total of 21.8” in mid month. The most snow on the ground was 23” The most on the ground at Muskegon was 33” Back at Grand Rapids every day in February 1979 had over 12” of snow on the ground. With the most being 17” At Muskegon every day had oner 11” in February. The most there was 21” March started off with 11” at Grand Rapids and Muskegon the snow pack was gone in GR by March 14^th it held on to March 19^th at Muskegon. I am sure there were parking lot piles on the ground at the start of April. The meteorological winters of 1978/79 and 1903/04 are the only ones with 1” or mote of snow on the ground for the whole meteorological winter season.

[Clinton]

Time to just bunker down inside and watch some football.  Chance of some light snow today an inch or so is possible.  -2 will make this the coldest kickoff ever at Arrowhead.

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills continue today and tonight. Still looking at a temperature around -2° and a wind chill around -24° at 7 pm tonight in KC. We likely won't see a wind chill above zero in KC again until late Wednesday morning

 

 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Time to just bunker down inside and watch some football.  Chance of some light snow today an inch or so is possible.  

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills continue today and tonight. Still looking at a temperature around -2° and a wind chill around -24° at 7 pm tonight in KC. We likely won't see a wind chill above zero in KC again until late Wednesday morning

 

Watch those flakes fly and enjoy some football!  Hey, how much snow do you have OTG?

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

Watch those flakes fly and enjoy some football!  Hey, how much snow do you have OTG?

I have 2 inches of snowpack and it is crusty lol.  Deeper spots of near a foot where it has drifted.

[Tom]

25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I have 2 inches of snowpack and it is crusty lol.  Deeper spots of near a foot where it has drifted.

Thu/Fri sneaky system might be a nice one...some ensembles are picking up on it...the Canadian/ICON are latching onto something interesting...

06z GEFS...starting to show some support...

 

I like the 500mb pattern showing up over Canada as the PAC Wave tracks into the PAC NW by Tue/Wed and then it SHOULD amplifying/dig as it comes out of the Rockies into the MW region.  This is one I would watch out for...could become a classic PAC Hybrid system...

[Timmy Supercell]

This may be our first real snow (below 32 degrees) for the season. Just a dusting a surfaces.

Yesterday's severe wx for the most part flopped, I think they banked on a mid-day clearing or some kind of organized frontal passage, but didn't happen that way. All day it was grey and wet in central/eastern KY.

[chescowxman]

We picked up a total rain of 0.94" in East Nantmeal with 0.42" falling since midnight. A cold front is crossing the area this AM and temperatures will be falling through the day. Another cold front sweeps across the area tomorrow and we could see some snow flurries or squall with that and temps will again fall tomorrow PM with temperatures falling through the 20's and into the teens by 8pm. Once temps fall below freezing tomorrow they will stay there for at least an entire week. We will have a few potential light snow events this week with the first one later Monday night into Tuesday morning. The next chance comes in during the day on Friday.

Records for today: High 68 (1932) / Low 11 below zero (1912) / Rain 1.34" (1978) / Snow 6.0" (1964)

 

[Jayhawker85]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

Time to just bunker down inside and watch some football.  Chance of some light snow today an inch or so is possible.  -2 will make this the coldest kickoff ever at Arrowhead.

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills continue today and tonight. Still looking at a temperature around -2° and a wind chill around -24° at 7 pm tonight in KC. We likely won't see a wind chill above zero in KC again until late Wednesday morning

 

 

Couldn’t pay me enough to be out there tonight! I love the Chiefs but I love my warm couch even more!! Lol

[Hoosier]

Chicago is running +6.2 for the month through Jan 12.  Gonna wipe all of that out and then some over the next week.

[Clinton]

23 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Couldn’t pay me enough to be out there tonight! I love the Chiefs but I love my warm couch even more!! Lol

I agree 100%

[CentralNebWeather]

Just got done snowblowing again. -38 wind chill. We live on the northeast side of town. You can see blowing snow clouds in the country. Our typical east west roads in this part of town are virtually impassable without 4x4. So of course I went out through them. Very fun. 

[Tom]

I saw a live shot about 30 min or so ago from Des Moines, IA and the scenery out there with snow falling at +2F was beautiful.  Not to mention, the deep snow pack in the background of the shot.  What a turnaround from such a horrid start to MET winter that I'm sure NO met  saw coming. 

[Minny_Weather]