January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 hours ago, Deweydog said:

REJOICE!

THE GFS IS ACCURATE AGAIN!

Can @iFred please make this the post of the day?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Really wondering how anyone could complain about 6z.

It is just about perfect. Even has a few 50-burgers thrown in for variety.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It is just about perfect. Even has a few 50-burgers thrown in for variety.

Five days of winter weather. Pretty good for El Nino

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That front on Saturday is looking pretty beastly. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Five days of winter weather. Pretty good for El Nino

12Z is running as I type this. Now the question is when the next GFS run that takes it all away will happen. And there will be at least one more such run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any thoughts on where this thing is going so far?!

 

[RentonHill]

There's more "people need to stop taking XZY so seriously" or "you stupids I told you that you should never look at the FRAM past day 3" posts than there are people actually taking the long range stuff seriously. In fact, it makes me want to take it EVEN MORE SERIOUSLY!!! If someone tries to therapist me down from extreme highs and lows based on every 6z and 18z GFS i'm gonna lose it!! Thats the life we chose and i'm prepared to live it to the MAX. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any thoughts on where this thing is going so far?!

 

Troughing stays closer after first trough, but ridge not as good. Not sure.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

There's more "people need to stop taking XZY so seriously" or "you stupids I told you that you should never look at the FRAM past day 3" posts than there are people actually taking the long range stuff seriously. In fact, it makes me want to take it EVEN MORE SERIOUSLY!!! If someone tries to therapist me down from extreme highs and lows based on every 6z and 18z GFS i'm gonna lose it!! Thats the life we chose and i'm prepared to live it to the MAX. 

I’m pretty sure long range only matters as long as it is good.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any thoughts on where this thing is going so far?!

 

System #2 looks botched so far

[Tyler Mode]

Eeked out a sunrise just before the rain.  It was raining as I was headed back to the car.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I’m pretty sure long range only matters as long as it is good.

each hour of each GFS run is a blessing from above that we should be thankful for. #blessed

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uh oh. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

There's more "people need to stop taking XZY so seriously" or "you stupids I told you that you should never look at the FRAM past day 3" posts than there are people actually taking the long range stuff seriously. In fact, it makes me want to take it EVEN MORE SERIOUSLY!!! If someone tries to therapist me down from extreme highs and lows based on every 6z and 18z GFS i'm gonna lose it!! Thats the life we chose and i'm prepared to live it to the MAX. 

Fine with me, than I can root for torching and gloat whenever it manifests.

Team Pineapple needs some fans, too. It’s boring if everyone is on the same side.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uh oh. 

It’s actually colder in B.C this run. And trough is heading towards us. Let’s see where this goes 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Wednesday 50-burgers for the South Sound on the 12Z.

[Slushy Inch]

GEM. Actually good agreement with gfs. Models might be settling on a solution 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

It’s actually colder in B.C this run. And trough is heading towards us. Let’s see where this goes 

Yeah, it might not actually be too bad. 

[RentonHill]

[Weiner Warrior]

Too warm. No snow at sea level this run

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can a run be both better an worse?

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I was hiking with friends in the mountains yesterday. And I told them, this area will be buried in 5-6 days. Mountains will get so much snow.

[westcoastexpat]

The 06Z GFS ops run is in green relative to the rest of the GEFS ensembles.

She's bold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is rock solid. 

[Slushy Inch]

Looks like gfs has system #2 capable of bringing down snow levels with heavy precip. Location isn’t final though.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

That’s a lot of snow at my house

[RentonHill]

Reaping/sowing, etc etc.  Next

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well we knew we couldn't match the 06z. Let's hope for some ensemble improvements!

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well we knew we couldn't match the 06z. Let's hope for some ensemble improvements!

Since you are also a minister do you think you could say a few words in his name for us? To help us get through this trying time??

[AlTahoe]

Newest GFS now matches the Euro with a ridge at day 10 instead of a cold low coming down the coast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Since you are also a minister do you think you could say a few words in his name for us? To help us get through this trying time??

I've already said 2024 is going to be a terrible year. I can try, but probably not much can be done at this point.

[Mid Valley Duck]

500mb pattern for the GFS and GEM look basically the same through day 10 

[Phishy Wx]

windshield wiper effect with the models

good, bad, good, bad

gunna be like this until they settle on a solution, even if they do

[Mid Valley Duck]

Gfs is pretty close day 11+ but everything slides east

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure y’all want to see the ensembles.

[Phishy Wx]

better than nothing I suppose

 

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure y’all want to see the ensembles.

They aren’t that bad. It’s the same placement for everything, just a little less amplified through day 9

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

It was 60 degrees a week ago.... these runs look great. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Nah man. 6z GEFS mean doesn't even drop SEA below freezing...

[Cold Snap]

12z GEFS isn’t terrible so far.