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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)


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06z GFS Day 8

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🤌

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I know we're trying to hype up this winter, but I did find something intresting for next winter:

 

At PDX when a moderate or strong El Nino is followed by a La Nina (8 recorded times), there is a 100% frequency of an arctic blast (see definition below). Expand that to downtown (using ENSO renanalysis) (14 recorded times), only 1 winter did not meet my criteria for an arctic blast. 

An arctic blast is defined as when one of the following is met:

-12C 850mb temps over Salem

26F coldest high

14F coldest Low

4 days in a row where the temperature fails to get above freezing (considering dropping to 3)

This brings a frequency of one every 2.5 winters. 

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06z GFS Day 9

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You guys...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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This was written out of my weenie teenage nerd head. The perfect setup.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Day fuckin' tenner. Feel free to spark one up gentlemen and watch this one ride. It's these runs we live for baby!!!!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s 6Z not 0z. Fyi

thanks, lol! muscle memory ;)

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This was written out of my weenie teenage nerd head. The perfect setup.

If you want to do this weenie thing right you really need to compare this run to 1969 or 1950.  That’s next level. 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

If you want to do this weenie thing right you really need to compare this run to 1969 or 1950.  That’s next level. 

ngl that last trough really screwed up harder than I anticipated. Thought blocking wouldn't have ejected to the poles so quickly

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Honestly who even cares that things rapidly fall apart around 300 hours on that run? This run is by FAR the best of any other run within day 10, and that's all that matters on the operational anyway. Just wow.

I will say though, after watching the 500mb pattern first, I was quite surprised how warm this run keeps the 850mb temps PDX at the start. Really seems like it should be colder earlier there with that setup. Seemed a little odd to me, but hell if I know.

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1 hour ago, Tanis Leach said:

I know we're trying to hype up this winter, but I did find something intresting for next winter:

 

At PDX when a moderate or strong El Nino is followed by a La Nina (8 recorded times), there is a 100% frequency of an arctic blast (see definition below). Expand that to downtown (using ENSO renanalysis) (14 recorded times), only 1 winter did not meet my criteria for an arctic blast. 

An arctic blast is defined as when one of the following is met:

-12C 850mb temps over Salem

26F coldest high

14F coldest Low

4 days in a row where the temperature fails to get above freezing (considering dropping to 3)

This brings a frequency of one every 2.5 winters. 

#December2024

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

REJOICE!

THE GFS IS ACCURATE AGAIN!

I told everyone, models will flip back and forth. People need to be a little patience with these cold spells. The models pick it up but don't know what to do with it. We know there is going to be a major pattern change, what's going to happen is still up in the air. 

I'll try to see what's happening with the next runs today but I'm normally really busy with work so have a little fun watching the models come in 🤗❄️🌨🌬

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It’s 5:54am here in Las Cruces and I don’t see any pepto, so I’m guessing Blue Raspberry and Spokane Tim were right that this was going to fall apart.

Oh well, at least we’ll get a good Nina in a few years or so.

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34 minutes ago, iFred said:

It’s 5:54am here in Las Cruces and I don’t see any pepto, so I’m guessing Blue Raspberry and Spokane Tim were right that this was going to fall apart.

Oh well, at least we’ll get a good Nina in a few years or so.

The event isn't supposed to happen until this coming weekend!!

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Even if it doesn’t snow down below 1000’ I’m looking forward to the mountains finally getting some snow which is a good bet moving forward. It was pretty sad being at 3700’ of elevation this weekend in BC with no snow on the ground and 45 degree rain. 
 Theres still a chance  of something interesting happening mid month despite the model waffling. Probably our best chance we will have this entire winter. We will see though a lot of model runs to come before we know. 

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So apparently the 06z was great and then sucked? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I looked at the 06z. It was great. If that happens and we get a death ridge by hour 384 that’s ok. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I looked at the 06z. It was great. If that happens and we get a death ridge by hour 384 that’s ok. 

My concern is the Euro shows a ridge off the coast at the same time the GFS is showing a snowstorm. Come on Gfs!

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

My concern is the Euro shows a ridge off the coast at the same time the GFS is showing a snowstorm. Come on Gfs!

Ensembles are rock solid. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nope. It has a snowstorm for part of the PS by hour 200 (which still is clown range)

But less clowney than 300+ hrs! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The Fuzz! And a view from the family lake house last evening. 

IMG_1511.jpeg

IMG_1510.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Big run beginning 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Season on the line from the 12 yard line. Can the 12z GFS convert 

It will go for two and be called back on a penalty.

It's been super foggy here the last few days.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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