January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS slides east.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GEM looks great

Beat me to it. It sure does. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS slides east.

GEM is better and performs better.

[Doinko]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Beat me to it. It sure does. 

Very cold air nearby as well

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So far this run is a dud. 

Sometimes I wonder if you are even looking at the models when you comment

[umadbro]

Conflicting reports!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM still looks aight. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er. If the ridge Day 6-8 hadn't been so flat we would have seen a major arctic blast this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Sometimes I wonder if you are even looking at the models when you comment

Definitely not as good as the 18z so far. 

[Timmy]

[Timmy]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Definitely not as good as the 18z so far. 

Yeah relative to the 18z it isn’t going to look good. No one expected that. It will easily be the 2nd best gfs run of the day

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM(Canadian) 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just not enough amplification to deliver the goods. 

[Gradient Keeper]

So close!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not terrible though, by any means. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not terrible though, by any means. 

No it isn't. Very Nina, just not enough support to draw arctic air down over us.

[SeanNyberg]

00z much better than the 18z for snowfall. And, to be honest, I want winter weather but sub-20 causes nothing but problems.

This is great!

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The gfs just goes off the rails with any sort of consistent details at all. We all love to watch it but it's really one of the worst global models out there.

its trash, they tried to fix it a couple years back and somehow made it worse

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

00z much better than the 18z for snowfall. And, to be honest, I want winter weather but sub-20 causes nothing but problems.

This is great!

? 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Did someone say GEM?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. La Nina greets us with an appearance this Winter!

[Gradient Keeper]

Now watch the GEFS have a much sharper, amplified ridge Day 6-10.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

00z much better than the 18z for snowfall. And, to be honest, I want winter weather but sub-20 causes nothing but problems.

This is great!

Not much if any snow for the western lowlands on the 0z. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Now watch the GEFS have a much sharper, amplified ridge Day 6-10.

That’s what I’m hoping. Operational GFS is essentially useless

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

00z much better than the 18z for snowfall. And, to be honest, I want winter weather but sub-20 causes nothing but problems.

This is great!

18z had more snow around Puget sound.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

18z had more snow around Puget sound.

Yea it was and a lot colder.... like 10-30 colder than the 0z

[AbbyJr]

Well the 00Z GFS is much milder than the 18Z. But if we look at the run to run consistency, it's safe to say that clinging to any one solution will likely result in a busted forecast. In other words, there is still too much model spread to be sure on the details. That said, I'm confident that it will get cold with possible low elevation snows in mid January.

[SeanNyberg]

I’m in Bellevue. The 00z is better than the 18z for me for snowfall. 

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

18z had more snow around Puget sound.im in Bellevue 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. La Nina greets us with an appearance this Winter!

I’m in the goods

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Ken in Wood Village]

Models (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) are not an exact science when it's the long range forecast. It's more of what the atmosphere may do in the future. What I do see is a shift in the overall pattern. When we get closer to the event, models will have a better understanding what type of weather we will see. 

I know everyone wants to know what is going to happen but it's more of a waiting game right now. I want to remind everyone, models will waver from time to time. I have noticed in the past that the models have a hard time with the cold air and where it's going. I think we will have a better understanding on what will happen around Thursday. All I know is the pattern change will start happening around the 5th. Say goodbye to the warm weather for awhile. Looks like this pattern will be around for awhile. 🌨🌬

[Dave]

Mark Nelson is on board for good mountain snow.

 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Well the 00Z GFS was much milder than the 18Z. But if we look at the run to run consistency, it's safe to say that clinging to any one solution will likely result in a busted forecast. In other words, there is still too much model spread to be sure on the details. That said, I'm confident that we will see at least several days below freezing with some low elevation snows in mid January.

Like sub freezing high temperatures? Pretty bold call that far out…but hopefully that happens. I’d also be fine with a couple days in the mid 30s and a couple inches of snow too. Can’t be any worse than December. 

[Slushy Inch]

Gefs to save this run. Not the trend on OP.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Approaching mid 50's after hour 300 on the GFS run. Interested to see where the GEFS goes from here and hopefully doesn't follow the control.

[Slushy Inch]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. La Nina greets us with an appearance this Winter!

On the plus side, it looks like it gives many of us another chance to perhaps eke out another 50-burger before the chill arrives.

[Deweydog]