January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[AbbyJr]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Have a hard time imagining that detail completely going away at this point with how the models started picking up on it last night. 

But is that the detail that’s causing the problem with the cold further down the line?

[MossMan]

Well at least we still have the Seahawks and Huskies to look forward to the next few days. Unbelievable how a stupid low that came out of nowhere ruined the entire winter festivities. Kind of depressing really. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is down to 972mb with that low early Tuesday.

The problem is not the strength. The problem is it shifted form Oregon to the tip of Vancouver island 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

The problem is not the strength. The problem is it shifted form Oregon to the tip of Vancouver island 

I think the northward shift is because of the increase in strength. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

But is that the detail that’s causing the problem with the cold further down the line?

Definitely helping to delay the push of cold south. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the northward shift is because of the increase in strength. 

Yeah your right 

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

The problem is not the strength. The problem is it shifted form Oregon to the tip of Vancouver island 

That low has always been to the north, previous runs developed a stronger secondary low that crashed into central Oregon coast. Now that feature is an open wave and doesn’t help drive cold air south.

[Kolk1604]

Can always hope for a 2016 style bust with this low. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Can always hope for a 2016 style bust with this low. 

If it’s going to f everything up can it at least be a windstorm?

[jakerepp]

Oh no...doom and gloom. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

This is going to be more of the same for the GFS. Maybe not as horrific as the 6z but probably worse than the 0z

[The Cats Meow]

I'm holding out hope for a surprise.  These lows wobble around on the models all the time.

If the model is off by 3 to 400 miles some of that cold air could be sucked into Washington or Oregon.

Believe.

[Darrington Troll]

Ahhh the doom and gloom, now this feels more normal.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Good morning! Up to 4" of snow now with atleaat a couple more inches on the way, temp is 28.5! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Here's the 00z GraphCast, fwiw. Still on board.

The 00z GraphCast/Google Deepmind looks great. Arctic air arrives Thursday/Friday and is still in place at the end of its run on day 10. EURO, UKMET, GraphCast and Spire are currently onboard. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

This is going to be more of the same for the GFS. Maybe not as horrific as the 6z but probably worse than the 0z

12Z run is warmer for Thursday than the 00Z run but a little cooler than the 06Z run.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Oh no...doom and gloom. 

For some people lack of gloom is doom.

[Slushy Inch]

Gem going to places. Models really struggling. EPS not a total rug pull yet so there’s that.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Looks like a bit of a forecast bust in bend, that's gotta be about inches and a half or so!  Not surprising, we almost always get more snow than forecast.

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z run is warmer for Thursday than both those runs.  

I was talking more about Friday to Sunday period but yeah Thursday way warmer now

[MWG]

To wake up to 34F and rain  but at least the Mts are getting their much needed snow. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

I was talking more about Friday to Sunday period but yeah Thursday way warmer now

I updated my post...  its actually cooler than the 06Z run by Thursday afternoon.

[Snowdome]

Waking up and checking the phone weather app immediately was quite the gut punch. Highs in the 20s are now highs in the 50s 

[LowerGarfield]

17 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

They’ve been having a conversation for over 10 minutes now about all the prep they’re going to do. This is hard to listen to.

Tell them the truth and maybe it will be a reverse jinx.

[FroYoBro]

But Tim said it was coming and a bunch of people gave it heart reacts...

[Snowdome]

At least Mt Hood will be fun next week!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Gem going to places. Models really struggling. EPS not a total rug pull yet so there’s that.

GEM caving towards the EURO/UKMET/GraphCast/SPIRE which is to be expected. Here it comes!

[MossMan]

Help me understand this…December 2008…Originally the kickoff to the festivities was going to be a day or two earlier because of a low placement that was originally supposed to make landfall through southern WA but ended up being stronger and further north so we were all rain. It delayed things by a day or two but we still went to epicness. Why isn’t that the case this time? 

[Mid Valley Duck]

The Alaskan ridge went from 

 

to this in 1 day.

[Slushy Inch]

Gem is getting close? Cancel the gfs!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

It isn't looking good but it's not completely over yet. If we still have 30% of ensembles, the 12z ecmwf,and perhaps the gem too, there's still a chance. Otherwise, not looking very good....

[ShawniganLake]

16 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

But is that the detail that’s causing the problem with the cold further down the line?

Hard to say if that low really has much implications for what happens Thursday to Saturday.  It’ll come down to the upstream blocking later in the week and how much the trough digs SW.  that strong low doesn’t look like it really has much impact on the location of that polar lobe in northern Alberta. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Low locations. That part looks pretty locked in at this point. Not much spread. 

[Minion]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Hard to say if that low really has much implications for what happens Thursday to Saturday.  It’ll come down to the upstream blocking later in the week and how much the trough digs SW.  that strong low doesn’t look like it really has much impact on the location of that polar lobe in northern Alberta. 

It really isn't the low. The blocking needs to be better. I think it will turn out okay.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM is definitely still on board... abandoning the idea of the low backing up and parking itself north of the border.  

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, Minion said:

It really isn't the low. The blocking needs to be better. I think it will turn out okay.

The Americans can thank us for gifting them with the 12Z GEM. 
 

[Kolk1604]

Here and the EMCWF will follow 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Here and the EMCWF will follow 

Yep... arctic front snow on this run.    Probably won't be a snowy later on like its 00Z run but this run looks more like the 00Z ECMWF.

 

[FroYoBro]

The Canadians have an interesting battle of warm/cold setting up on the 12z. Much more exciting solution than the GFS is showing. 

Edited January 6 by FroYoBro

[Kolk1604]

...and let the hammer fall!