1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

I agree with that! GFS way south but GEFS north. Models don't have a handle on this thing yet I don't believe.

12z Euro was better for us. The EPS is further north than the operational.

The CMC ensemble mean is even better.

[Money]

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Big bertha starting to appear at the end of the NAM.

Feels like we’ve been tracking this thing for weeks and it’s not even in the nam range yet 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

Feels like we’ve been tracking this thing for weeks and it’s not even in the nam range yet 

We've been snow starved! lol

[gabel23]

[hawkstwelve]

18z vs 12z GFS storm total comparison...

[Clinton]

18z GFS came in a few tics stronger.

[tStacsh]

Thermals stink.  

[winterfreak]

Thermals will be an issue for everyone in this sub with the exception of those in central NE, SD, etc...

[Clinton]

EAX AFD

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
357 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2024

.Discussion...
Issued at 355 PM CST THU JAN 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Light wintry mix and snow possible tomorrow and tomorrow night
  with minor (generally less than 1") accumulations possible.

- Another period of light snow possible on Saturday afternoon and
  evening, but little to no accumulation is expected.

- Accumulating snow becoming more likely for Monday afternoon into
  Tuesday. Snowfall amounts and specific locations most favored
  for the highest amounts are still very much uncertain. Stay
  tuned for updates.

The active pattern continues as another mid-upper level trough
makes landfall across the Pacific Northwest by Saturday afternoon
and digs southward over the Four Corners and Desert Southwest by
late Sunday night. The system crosses the Southern Rockies and
moves into the Southern Plains, undergoing lee cyclogenesis
heading into Monday morning and becoming a well defined mid
latitude cyclone. This system will eventually eject to the ENE
across the Southern and Mid Mississippi Valley on Monday night
into Tuesday. The exact track of the low will play a very large
role in our weather for Monday into Tuesday, including the
progression of precipitation types and snowfall totals. As of now
it appears that the system should begin as rain across our region,
with a changeover to snow Monday night into Tuesday morning as
thermal profiles cool. Confidence is still quite low in total
snowfall amounts and where the highest snow totals may be. The 12z
European ensemble shows roughly a 50% chance for snow greater
than or equal to (GTE henceforth) 3" over the KC metro, with this
increasing toward 60% to even 70% over northern MO. The 12z GFS
ensemble is similar, while the Canadian ensemble shifts the higher
3" probabilities a little further to the southeast. The 12z NBM
snowfall probabilities at MCI are a 69% chance for GTE 1", 51%
chance for GTE 2", 32% for GTE 4", 23% for GTE 6", and 16% for GTE
8". In addition, winds will likely be elevated due to the
tightened pressure gradient, which could lead to possibly blowing
snow and lowered visibilities. This is all a long, drawn out way
of further exemplifying that the goal posts are quite wide at the
moment, but that this system has the potential to be fairly
impactful. Stay tuned for updates and as always, stick to reliable
and trustworthy weather sources.

Snow should come to an end from west to east by late Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon, with cold Arctic air moving in
Tuesday night yielding overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s.
Another quick moving shortwave trough may descend out of the
Northern Plains into the Midwest on Thursday, bringing a cold
front through the area. This may bring another slight chance for
some light snow as well as very cold temperatures to the region
for Thursday night into Friday.

[hawkstwelve]

18z vs 12z GEFS storm total...

[Clinton]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

18z vs 12z GEFS storm total...

Nice jump in totals for central MO and mby,

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Nice jump in totals for central MO and mby,

If we can just get a few inches. Cold air will come in Tuesday night.

[Pros3lyte]

Ahhh I see SE MI has applied its yearly snow repellant! :D

[bud2380]

Anyone have the 18z Euro control?

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Anyone have the 18z Euro control?

Here it is, very similar to the GFS.  Good run for mby

 

[Clinton]

18z EPS Mean.  This looks very LRC friendly based on the previous cycle.

[hawkstwelve]

Officially within range of the 18z Euro. It's getting closer! 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, westMJim said:

You might mean the so called Groundhog day storm of Feb 2011. That storm had 18" of snowfall and I am sure there was a NE wind. Not sure what the highest wind was. In Bay City during the January 1967, 1978 and March 1972 storms the NE wind reached up to 65MPH but remember Bay City is on the Saginaw Bay and a long open stretch  to the NE

No, but GHD-1 also qualifies, and was more recent by 9 yrs. I know it was 02 because that was my last year in S. Bend and we got grazed by only 2-4" while the jackzone strip was not too far NW of us. Had to be 02, since both 01and 00 were duds during late winter.

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Obviously extremely unlikely, but there's an EPS member that gets down to 955 mb in northern lower MI.

IDC, please share it for my "museum of weenie runs"

[jaster220]

Note that it is now evening of the 4th, and the "HEAVY SNOW" swath starts on the 7th in CO - just 3 days till kick-off so we are not that far away. I really think this is getting dialed-in and major wobbles will be fewer and fewer. Today's WPC map has a good look imho. I stepped out to my car after work with WC's in the lower teens. It is cold enough in NMI to support bliz conditions and I do believe models like the EC are sniffing the colder air source and jacking up the response. At least up here it should be able to "take off" nicely. 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Note that it is now evening of the 4th, and the "HEAVY SNOW" swath starts on the 7th in CO - just 3 days till kick-off so we are not that far away. I really think this is getting dialed-in and major wobbles will be fewer and fewer. Today's WPC map has a good look imho. I stepped out to my car after work with WC's in the lower teens. It is cold enough in NMI to support bliz conditions and I do believe models like the EC are sniffing the colder air source and jacking up the response. At least up here it should be able to "take off" nicely. 

The ensembles really seemed to get dialed in this afternoon.  I agree it's starting to take shape.

[Jayhawker85]

38 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z EPS Mean.  This looks very LRC friendly based on the previous cycle.

Let’s just go ahead and lock this in and call it a day! Lol

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Let’s just go ahead and lock this in and call it a day! Lol

I'm good with that.  It would be a heavy wet snow that may stay for awhile.

[Bumblin Bman09]

15 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Let’s just go ahead and lock this in and call it a day! Lol

I am up in Northern IL and would lock this in now as well.  I am more excited with the cold coming in with several other chacnes for higher ratio events.  

[Hoosier]

47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

IDC, please share it for my "museum of weenie runs"

[james1976]

That defo band means business. Someone is gonna cash!

[Andie]

52*   Rain about to begin.  

[jaster220]

59 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The ensembles really seemed to get dialed in this afternoon.  I agree it's starting to take shape.

All indicators saying we have a sig if not better storm on our hands. I think the coming runs, especially when fully sampled will be about just what the ceiling looks like. Needless to say, a 955 mb SLP is bliz of '78 grade material (without a merge scenario no less).

[jaster220]

34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

TYPO?? lol

Hafta say, that's a pretty nice cluster of 965-970 mb progs at this range. 

[jaster220]

APX

[Money]

0z icon looks pretty similar to previous runs but good hit for northern IL and southern WI

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

 

[Clinton]

0z ICON

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

ukie big shift east

[Grizzcoat]

And North. James gets in!!

[Stacsh]

Bullseye after bullseye for me.  Not only this storm we are tracking but others that follow.  Not sure if that’s a good sign or not.  Snow on top of snow on top of snow is very unusual outside of lake effect systems.  

[Grizzcoat]

Weaker this run- but precip shield further E into IA-- will not be 10:1 as thermals are borderline for many with 2M temps above 0C for much of the event.