1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Money]

Looks like most of the gfs ensembles take it through Chicago 

[Money]

Euro through hr 84

[Money]

Will likely track just south of Chicago this run

[Grizzcoat]

Definite N - W trend SE 1/4 of IA-

[winterfreak]

No problem with sleet and rain on the front end if the main show trends a bit further NW.

[Money]

2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Definite N - W trend SE 1/4 of IA-

Yup. Went from 4 on 0z run to 7-8 on 12.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Money said:

Will likely track just south of Chicago this run

I've never actually observed a sub 980 mb pressure at my house, so that would be mildly interesting.  Still would personally rather see a track a bit farther southeast though.  

[Tom]

Still a solid hit for many on here...

[uticasnow]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Still a solid hit for many on here...

This shows 10-1 ratios but reality is you can probably cut these totals in half with the warmth

[Grizzcoat]

Kuchera-

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

Cobb 24 HR-

[Hawkeye]

The Euro expands the defo zone northwest across eastern Iowa, but the heavier part of the zone still tracks farther southeast, from northern Missouri up through Chicago.  I'll certainly take 6-7 inches.

[KTPmidMO]

9 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Cobb 24 HR-

What is Cobb?

[Grizzcoat]

16 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

What is Cobb?

A different way of figuring snow ratios.

The Cobb method algorithm incorporates vertical velocities, relative humidities, and temperatures from NWP data to determine snowfall totals. Snow ratios are calculated from the vertical velocities, relative humidities, and temperatures for each layer of a cloud column.

Personally down in MO-  I stick with Kuchera. It's  (COBB) more commonly used with extreme high snow ratios -- (30:1 to even 40:1. )

Snow/Liquid Ratio
The snow/liquid ratio (SLR) is computed using the 2011 Cobb-Waldsteicher method.1 We
compute the SLR for each member of the SREF by looking at the debiased sounding2 for layers
with sufficient moisture (>90% RH with respect to ice) and rising vertical motion (negative
omega). If these conditions are met for at least 11 of the 21 SREF members, then we will
produce a probabilistic SLR forecast.
The spread of the probabilistic SLR forecast is calculated from the standard deviation of the SLR
member forecasts. Box-and-whisker plots are then generated from these probabilities.
SLR can be computed regardless of whether or not it is cold enough to snow. As a result, it can
produce some unrealistic values. We constrain the SLR for each ensemble member to be no
more than 30-to-1.
Once the standard deviation is used to create the probabilistic SLR, some probability levels can
be less than zero. We set any probabilistic SLR values that are less than one to one.

[Clinton]

12z Euro Control and EPS

[Clinton]

12z ensemble look about the same.  I think the track is same as set

[Grizzcoat]

SREF (15Z) starting to look more and more namish-

[Grizzcoat]

[Hawkeye]

Given the latest ensemble averages, it's looking like 5-7" here.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Given the latest ensemble averages, it's looking like 5-7" here.

That's a good snow with another one on the way potentially.

[Grizzcoat]

Being DMX this AM was 2-5" -- I'am going 4-6", but knowing DMX I may be too high. They often times do not forecast higher totals until its evident and happening.

[bud2380]

19 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Given the latest ensemble averages, it's looking like 5-7" here.

Could see watches hoisted this afternoon based on latest guidance. 

[Jayhawker85]

25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z ensemble look about the same.  I think the track is same as set

This needs to stop shifting north today please!

[OttumwaSnomow]

28 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Being DMX this AM was 2-5" -- I'am going 4-6", but knowing DMX I may be too high. They often times do not forecast higher totals until its evident and happening.

Its been my observation  that these deeper lows almost always  go further  north than progged. I bet i80 east of dmx gets huge totals. Our company  here in Ottumwa  are planning on 6 to 10, possibly  11 or 12".. We have 70 commercial  sites so this may be one of our more  stressful  events since the ground hog day 2011.

[CentralNebWeather]

Had to drive 2 hours to a basketball game. Haven’t seen any posts since about 10 am. Will try and catch up during the JV game. 

[Grizzcoat]

9 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Its been my observation  that these deeper lows almost always  go further  north than progged. I bet i80 east of dmx gets huge totals. Our company  here in Ottumwa  are planning on 6 to 10, possibly  11 or 12".. We have 70 commercial  sites so this may be one of our more  stressful  events since the ground hog day 2011.

Stressful but $$$ in the bank!!!!

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Kuchera-

My area has really increased. Nice. 

[Hoosier]

Around here I'm going with like a 70/30 blend of Kuchera and the snow depth maps for amounts.  Kuchera may work the best farther west (Iike Iowa) where it will be a little colder, but I don't think it will quite work here.  

[Grizzcoat]

NAM North- imagine that.

[mlgamer]

Hey @Clinton, I see you're in a watch now! Enjoy!

[Grizzcoat]

Nam slower also--- some of these totals ( I know 18Z nam) will be lollipops

[mlgamer]

10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

NAM North- imagine that.

If this turns into a Dakotas special, then I've seen everything. lol

[winterfreak]

It’s the NAM. Only model that has the low tracking nearly over mby. We’ll see.

[Grizzcoat]

Over Western KC at 63hr-- nuts-

[Hawkeye]

I can't imagine the upper low is going to track over Kansas City, as the NAM is predicting.  Other models track it from Oklahoma to southeast Missouri.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

It’s the NAM. Only model that has the low tracking nearly over mby. We’ll see.

Easy toss on the NAM track.

[winterfreak]

Has the low cutting over Lawrence  

[Hawkeye]

The NAM has the surface low tracking over Cedar Rapids... hundreds of miles northwest of all other models.  C'mon, man.  This is trash.

[Grizzcoat]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I can't imagine the upper low is going to track over Kansas City, as the NAM is predicting.  Other models track it from Oklahoma to southeast Missouri.

Update:  The surface low tracking over Cedar Rapids?  C'mon, man.  This is trash.

It very well may be. But it did set a decent trend from the 06Z and 12Z runs.