Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Money said: What a weird evolution lol No consistency at all. Might get a nuke this run though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 966 over Detroit IL/MI/IN do well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 Been at this a long time and I have to say, I don't know if I've ever seen such tightly packed isobars over Indiana before on a prog that is not into super fantasy land. This is 5 days now. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 GEM is further north and it’s IA/WI well. Run isn’t done will post maps after 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Just now, Money said: GEM is further north and it’s IA/WI well. Run isn’t done will post maps after Whoa. That’s a nice run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 GEM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 GEM still cuts it into central MO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 HR 120 GFS and CMC are in identical spots and almost identical pressures. Just a different path of getting there 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Ukie is a bomb 978 in C IL at 120 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 GEFS rolling now. Curious to see how many even more nukey members than the op. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: GEFS rolling now. Curious to see how many even more nukey members than the op. Seems like ensembles are significantly east of the OP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 fwiw, 00z GFS bottomed out at 961 mb near Toronto. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, Clinton said: EAX AFD: As we head into Friday, models continue to suggest another trough digging into the Desert Southwest and ejecting across the south central US. This will bring another chance for potentially significant accumulating snowfall Friday into Friday night, although at the moment the track seems to be a little further south southeast compared to the tomorrow/Tuesday system. Additionally, very cold temperatures are likely to arrive and plunge us into what could be a prolonged period of subfreezing temperatures. This is currently forecast to include single digit to perhaps even subzero temperatures Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night with well below zero wind chills. Let’s make this happen! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 Another view of UKMET at 120. This is around when it reaches peak depth. Low tracks to southern Lake Michigan after this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Euro sliding a bit too far east for Iowa, but it's going big. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Man, just too far east. Seems pretty locked in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Euro sliding a bit too far east for Iowa, but it's going big. Not going to complain about another 3-6". Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Euro sliding a bit too far east for Iowa, but it's going big. Explosive deepening... around 2 mb/hr for a while. Very impressive to get that rate of deepening over land. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 A bit premature for details of course, but this is quite a wet snow/wind bomb around the southern Lakes on this Euro run. Much of the snow falls before temps plunge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 Just for some idea of the rarity of what is being modeled, BOTH the 00z Euro and GFS would flirt with or break the all-time low pressure records in much of central/eastern IN. Those records were established in the infamous January 1978 Cleveland superbomb, which was centered farther east and bottomed out in the 950s. Plenty of time to get a different ultimate outcome, but just pointing out for some context. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 6z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 This one has my interest as my father, brother and his family are going to Holland, MI for a tournament this weekend. If the models continue to trend towards a Blizzard, I doubt they go and it gets cancelled. TBH, I'm a bit jelly if this storm ends ups going nuclear. Tracking this storm from afar, I've never seen the models show such a deep low and vicious cold/wind for the lower lakes. @Hoosier, your right about this powerhouse which could be a legendary JAN storm...like back in the late 70's! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa CO, MI Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 27 minutes ago, Tom said: This one has my interest as my father, brother and his family are going to Holland, MI for a tournament this weekend. If the models continue to trend towards a Blizzard, I doubt they go and it gets cancelled. TBH, I'm a bit jelly if this storm ends ups going nuclear. Tracking this storm from afar, I've never seen the models show such a deep low and vicious cold/wind for the lower lakes. @Hoosier, your right about this powerhouse which could be a legendary JAN storm...like back in the late 70's! Don't tease me... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 This system has two problems that keep in from (probably) doing as much for areas further west and or south. One is that the existing lower heights to the east and insufficient SE ridge means it races east too quickly. This is further compounded by the rising heights along the west coast during this period. So that'll be an issue. The other problem is that due to the cold trough ahead of it, moisture is limited. So it does eventually wrap up into a solid system, but it takes a while compared to what you might think given the low SLP. So my guess is it doesn't really get going until a little further east than the preceding systems. The only wild card would be if the low level cold can outrun model expectations and force a changeover to sleet or zr. But even that seems less likely now that models are holding back a piece of the PV over southwest canada for longer. Since the cold is less consolidated it probably won't be as forceful to push in behind the system Friday and may linger a bit. In that sense, it's probably a lost cause down here too. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Pivotal doesn't do 48 hour snow maps, I wish they would. Here is from instantweathermaps.com that shows 48 hour snowfalls. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Looks like Icon is gonna be north from 6z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Icon bombing out at that point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Risk for Iowa continues to be too much of an eastward slide. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 oops...wrong thread. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 GFS bombs away 973 in western IN at hr 102 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 12z GDPS slid a bit farther east, similar to the GFS. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Such a long duration event, can't catch the whole midwest/GL regions in just a 24 hour map, so again here is 48 hours. Northern Missouri still favored. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 If the GFS ends up being too far south with the current storm, any chance that impacts this storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Currently a bit turbulent. Rain, Wind 26mph, more on the way. Plenty of lightning. Imagine if this was snow. This is acting like a typical Fall storm. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Ukie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 58 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Such a long duration event, can't catch the whole midwest/GL regions in just a 24 hour map, so again here is 48 hours. Northern Missouri still favored. Wonder what kind of ratios that is using. Doesn't seem like 10:1 or Kuchera. Storm is also ongoing for eastern areas at that time so yes it will be nice to get the current storm out of the way for snow map posting purposes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8 Author Report Share Posted January 8 19 minutes ago, Money said: Ukie I saw the precip plots... absolutely crushes Chitown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 4 hours ago, Tom said: This one has my interest as my father, brother and his family are going to Holland, MI for a tournament this weekend. If the models continue to trend towards a Blizzard, I doubt they go and it gets cancelled. TBH, I'm a bit jelly if this storm ends ups going nuclear. Tracking this storm from afar, I've never seen the models show such a deep low and vicious cold/wind for the lower lakes. @Hoosier, your right about this powerhouse which could be a legendary JAN storm...like back in the late 70's! My wife is headed to Philly on Friday for a Hockey tournament and my buddy is headed to Holland for a hockey tournament this coming weekend. I already informed them to try and book travel earlier if possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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