January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[gabel23]

10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Canadian 24 hour snowfall for the next storm. What a pattern is shaping up. 

We would be absolutely buried if any of this verifies wow!!! This should be a dry snow unlike the one we just had. 

[Money]

Ukie is identical to GFS

[Money]

Ukie gets down to 972 pretty much same spot as GFS. Winds look insane on it

 

 

[Hoosier]

All I gotta say is that I hope we don't see a repeat of Lakeshore Drive in GHD in Chicago this Friday.  What a debacle that was.  Current timing of this one looks eerily similar as far as timing of onset and when conditions may really go downhill.  One difference this time is warmer temps which may make some difference in conditions (or maybe not).  Of course the world has changed since then with more work from home, but people need to really take this seriously if current models hold.

[Hoosier]

Based on what I'm seeing aloft on the 00z Euro so far, I'd be surprised if 

A ) this run isn't more jacked than 12z

B ) this run is as far south as 12z

[Money]

Euro is gonna be NW than 12z for sure 

[Money]

HR 90

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

Euro is gonna be NW than 12z for sure 

Yep, gonna be back to a nuke run again.

[Money]

HR 96

 

 

[Money]

Gets down to 965 in south MI 

[Hoosier]

On the whole, at least as impressive as last night's crazy run.

[Money]

[Money]

That map is 10:1 ratios as well. Could easily be 12+ in a lot of areas with 30–40 mph gusts 

[Hoosier]

I've been using 48 hr qpf to get an idea on amounts since 24 hr snow map has a hard time covering it entirely.

[Money]

[Money]

We are within 72 hours of the system developing and we have Ukie, Euro and GFS all get it sub 975 with a ton of snow/wind for areas

[Hoosier]

Very, very impressive EPS 

 

 

[Money]

959? Lmao

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

959? Lmao

I wish I knew what the Indiana state record low pressure is.  Indianapolis recorded 974.6 mb on February 28, 1902, but I'm not sure if that's the state record.  If it's not, it's gotta be close.

Given the above... quite simply, what the GFS and Euro are modeling would be nearly without precedent, if not without precedent in the historical record.  Almost like a poor man's version of the January 1978 blizzard, but weaker and farther west.  

[Hoosier]

Northern Indiana office already talking this up

 

Thereafter focus turns to potential snowpocalypse Fri-Sat. Guidance
over the last several days remains pretty consistent with next
stupendous pacific wave train disturbance over the Gulf of AK this
morning which makes a beeline for the 4 corners by Thu aftn and
turns out through the srn plains Fri and into the ern lakes Sat.

Surprising good multi-model consensus with both evolution in time and
track, taking rapidly deepening sfc reflection from wrn AR Fri
morning newd into wrn OH vcnty Sat morning while upper wave goes
negatively tilted through the OH valley. Not too dissimilar from
current system now but with a colder starting downstream environment
and swd displaced sfc low track comparatively and infusion of much
needed baroclinicity as arctic air couples to drive an even stronger
sys. Deep turn through the srn plains taps into an anonymously moist
return moisture plume as delineated in explicit deterministic qpfs
Fri-Sat, highlighting the potential for a blockbuster snowstorm for
much of the area. However it should be noted proximity of spoiler
warm sector east of sfc cyclone which likely albeit short supports a
period of mixed precip potential far south and east. Too early yet
for specifics other than a generalization for a very impactful storm
across the Great Lakes late period, Fri-Sun.

[Clinton]

EAXs take this morning

Thursday night - Friday: The next storm system will begin to affect
the region during this time frame. Initially, it looks like
precipitation may develop across Nebraska and northern Kansas as the
upper shortwave trough moves into the Four-Corners region. As this
wave moves into the Plains, an area of precipitation should develop
in the warm advection across southern Missouri and merge with the
baroclinic leaf portion of the storm with snow spreading across the
entire forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning. Like with
the ongoing system, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty with
the late week system, both in the potential track and the
thermodynamic profile. The ECMWF is farther northwest with the
system at this point and this shows in both the probabilities of
exceeding 3" snowfall and the probability of having a warm nose
affecting southeast portions of the forecast. Both the ECMWF and GFS
ensembles show 20%+ probabilities for 850mb temperatures to be at or
above freezing at the onset of precipitation. The ECMWF being
farther northwest than the GFS. And this once again will likely sit
across the KC area adding huge uncertainty to the precipitation type
and snowfall amounts.

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control and Mean

Ummmm, ya...this one is looking like a Legit Blitz for the Lower Lakes....My goodness, this could become a Legendary Week of Winter for the MW/Lakes...I just looked for flights out of PHX to ORD on THU...not cheap, $344, but man...this may be worth it!

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

Ummmm, ya...this one is looking like a Legit Blitz for the Lower Lakes....My goodness, this could become a Legendary Week of Winter for the MW/Lakes...I just looked for flights out of PHX to ORD on THU...not cheap, $344, but man...this may be worth it!

They are going to get buried.  @jaster220 is going to get welcomed to his new place properly.  Lezak still bullish on snow for KC with this though models don't really agree as of now.  But we know how that goes lol.

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Northern Indiana office already talking this up

 

Thereafter focus turns to potential snowpocalypse Fri-Sat. Guidance
over the last several days remains pretty consistent with next
stupendous pacific wave train disturbance over the Gulf of AK this
morning which makes a beeline for the 4 corners by Thu aftn and
turns out through the srn plains Fri and into the ern lakes Sat.

Surprising good multi-model consensus with both evolution in time and
track, taking rapidly deepening sfc reflection from wrn AR Fri
morning newd into wrn OH vcnty Sat morning while upper wave goes
negatively tilted through the OH valley. Not too dissimilar from
current system now but with a colder starting downstream environment
and swd displaced sfc low track comparatively and infusion of much
needed baroclinicity as arctic air couples to drive an even stronger
sys. Deep turn through the srn plains taps into an anonymously moist
return moisture plume as delineated in explicit deterministic qpfs
Fri-Sat, highlighting the potential for a blockbuster snowstorm for
much of the area. However it should be noted proximity of spoiler
warm sector east of sfc cyclone which likely albeit short supports a
period of mixed precip potential far south and east. Too early yet
for specifics other than a generalization for a very impactful storm
across the Great Lakes late period, Fri-Sun.

That's one of many, favorite winter weather words coming from a NWS Met...boy, your gonna enjoy this one!

[Clinton]

Here we go again

[Tom]

 

42 minutes ago, Clinton said:

They are going to get buried.  @jaster220 is going to get welcomed to his new place properly.  Lezak still bullish on snow for KC with this though models don't really agree as of now.  But we know how that goes lol.

Yup, I think our friend up north is going to make up in a hurry of all the lack luster winters he's experienced in S MI.  He may have such a deep snowpack when all sudden done that will set a new standard for him!

[Clinton]

6z Euro Control and Mean 10:1

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro Control and Mean 10:1

That is a magnificent signal...woah!

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

That is a magnificent signal...woah!

Harder for me to capture the GEFS without picking up on some other systems but it's a hair further south.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Harder for me to capture the GEFS without picking up on some other systems but it's a hair further south.

Lower Lakes looks like the jackzone...

[bud2380]

Such a long duration event again to try capture the whole thing in a 24 hour window is impossible.  Looks like 4-6" in eastern Iowa is possible.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z ICON going to be a pretty good hit for my backyard. Much farther southwest than other models. 

[Hawkeye]

ICON

[Clinton]

FWIW ICON very similar to Weather2020 forecast.

[Hoosier]

I guess we're officially in the "model mayhem" stage as the 12z American models have a weaker storm.  Good to see other models disagreeing with that.

[Hawkeye]

The GDPS trended toward the GFS, not something I want to see.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z ICON for 24 hours. More snow after that southeast. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Canadian total through 90 hours. Still some lingering amounts from the current storm, so delete 1-3” for Missouri and Iowa from this. 

[Hoosier]

Looks like the GEFS kind of followed the trends of the op.

Will be very interested to see the Euro and UKMET and whether they look like the GFS or mostly hold to prior solutions.

[Hoosier]

Just saw the UKMET.  It still cuts hard.