January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Grizzcoat]

SREF is WAY N compared to 6 hours ago-

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Euro-

[Pros3lyte]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Definitely trending NW--- 18Z GEFS yday compared to todays 06Z run 60 and 72 HRs-- stronger and likely why it's cutting more

Now comes the steady march NW - eastern Michigan baroclinic zone is non-existent after last storm’s wash out here- hopefully this clipper tomorrow will overperform and hit the higher end of NWS predictions.

I’m really worried about rain cutting into totals here. For some reason my gut is telling me we’ll end up receiving somewhere in the 4-5 inch range when all is said and done. 
 

I really hope I’m wrong and we get buried! 

[shakjen]

This may end up doing the exact same thing as the last storm. North central Illinois was the bullseye 2 days out then it took a north turn closer to the storm. Ended up with a lot of mixing and rain here. 

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, shakjen said:

This may end up doing the exact same thing as the last storm. North central Illinois was the bullseye 2 days out then it took a north turn closer to the storm. Ended up with a lot of mixing and rain here. 

agree. SREF trending N slightly. You do not wanna be on the South side of the snow shield---

[Tom]

Here we go...another 5-9" expected where I was a couple days ago...Sunrise Ski Resort should do really good again!

Quote

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST
THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations
  of 1 to 3 inches below 6000 feet, 3 to 6 inches above 6000
  feet, and 6 to 12 inches above 7500 feet. Southwest winds 15 to
  25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Localized gusts as high as 60
  mph are forecast for downslope areas along the Mogollon Rim and
  in the White Mountains. Winds switch around to the north-
  northwest by Thursday afternoon and decrease in intensity.

* WHERE...Areas above 3500 feet across northern Arizona.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 5 PM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  will impact Thursday morning`s commute. Strong winds could cause
  tree damage and localized power outages.

  Snow forecast from 2 AM Thursday to 5 PM Thursday:

         Alpine  5 to 9  inches    Buffalo Pass  4 to 8  inches
         Dilkon  0 to 1  inches      Doney Park  1 to 3  inches
Eagar-Sprgrvlle  1 to 3  inches       Flagstaff  3 to 5  inches
   Forest Lakes  6 to 10 inches          Ganado  2 to 4  inches
   Grand Canyon  1 to 2  inches Heber-Overgaard  3 to 5  inches
       Holbrook  0 to 1  inches Kachina Village  3 to 5  inches
     Kykotsmovi  1 to 3  inches      Munds Park  4 to 6  inches
      North Rim  2 to 4  inches          Payson  2 to 4  inches
Pine-Strawberry  3 to 5  inches  Pinetop-Lkside  5 to 9  inches
       Prescott  0 to 1  inches Prescott Valley  0 to 1  inches
    Saint Johns  1 to 3  inches          Sedona  1 to 3  inches
       Seligman  0 to 1  inches        Show Low  4 to 6  inches
Snowflake-Taylr  1 to 3  inches       Tuba City  0 to 1  inches
          Valle  1 to 3  inches      Whiteriver  4 to 8  inches
       Williams  2 to 4  inches     Window Rock  2 to 4  inches
        Winslow  0 to 1  inches.

 

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GDPS is juiced.

[Tom]

Blitz Warning's up in the PNW is just a precursor of what you guys out East should endure...

[Tom]

Anyone back in CHI have a look at this mornings IBM GRAF model?  That model I found is very good inside 3 days, but especially within 24 hours.  

Here was Tom Skilling's blog this morning...

[hawkstwelve]

Not a bad trend on the SREF for here. Not sure how accurate this model is but I'll take whatever I can get. 

[hawkstwelve]

Nice jump on the RGEM too and a decent one on the NAM. 

Hmmm... Last storm it looked like we would top out in the 2-4 inch range until the last 24-48 hours where things trended much more favorably and we ended up with 13.5". Can lightning strike twice? 

[KTPmidMO]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

SREF is WAY N compared to 6 hours ago-

All the numbers around the L is the possible Low location and strength from different members correct?

If I am correct in that, are you telling me that some members have the low down in Texas while some members have it in Iowa? Thats crazy.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

All the numbers around the L is the possible Low location and strength from different members correct?

If I am correct in that, are you telling me that some members have the low down in Texas while some members have it in Iowa? Thats crazy.

It suggests and based on what the models are showing that there will be a lead wave and then a stronger secondary low coming up from the Gulf states or Arklatex.

[jcwxguy]

i know its long range  hrrr, but it really dried up in nebraska

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I don't like how some of the short-term models are trending so far north with the lead wave Friday.

[KTPmidMO]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

It suggests and based on what the models are showing that there will be a lead wave and then a stronger secondary low coming up from the Gulf states or Arklatex.

So being here in mid Missouri, I need to try to bank in on that second low?

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

So being here in mid Missouri, I need to try to bank in on that second low?

Precisely!  That’s when the main energy hopefully bombs out somewhere across the S MW into lower lakes.

[hawkstwelve]

06z 3km NAM was an even better improvement for here. 12z runs should be very telling - does the NW trend continue or was it a temporary trend and things revert? 

[KTPmidMO]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Precisely!  That’s when the main energy hopefully bombs out somewhere across the S MW into lower lakes.

Right now, it seems like most models have it bombing out just after getting through Missouri. I hope that's not the case.

[hawkstwelve]

Snodgrass had a good video this AM going over this system. He mentions the NW trend a couple times as yesterday he thought it would stay further to the south. 

 

[bud2380]

The RAP has the first round going way north.  HRRR to a lesser extent too and NAM also a little further north.  

[hawkstwelve]

12z NBM is pretty close to previous runs. Slight uptick in totals for E NE/SE SD/S MN/W and central IA. Everywhere else is pretty much unchanged. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

12z 3km NAM stopped the northward shift with a slight move back south. Still not as far south as it was on the 00z run.

12z vs 06z comparison...

[hawkstwelve]

12z 12km NAM was a shift north vs 06z run...

[Money]

NAM 

[hawkstwelve]

Not sure what was up with the 00z FV3 run. Looks a bit weird. But here's the comparison to 12z with 10:1 ratios...

[bud2380]

FV3 with Kuchera.  This looks much better than the NAM for my area.

 

[bud2380]

There is a tiny system today that looks like it may drop 1 to as much as 5" in isolated areas.  The WRF-ARW shows this right over Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.

 

 

 

 

[FV-Mike]

LOT AFD

Uncertainty has increased with the next winter storm to impact the
area Friday into Saturday. Specifically, the operational runs of
many of the models have shifted northwest with the track of the
low and bring a considerable amount of rain into at least the
southeast third of the cwa, with the potential for a mix possibly
even into the southern Chicago Metro area. Interestingly, it
appears that the GFS and ECMWF operational runs are the farthest
northwest of just about all of their respective ensembles,
suggesting there is more support for a more southeastern track of
the low then the operational runs show.

 

They note the NW trend but caution it may be too far 

[Madtown]

Any chance this thing wraps anything worth while up here. I see the nam wants to. This is not good up here. Current trail conditions. Be lucky to open by Feb at this point.

[Black Hole]

This system is just beginning to come onshore in the PNW this morning, the 12z runs (and definitely the 00z runs) should get a relatively good sample of the vorticity lobe and hopefully begin any last minute trends they are going to make. 

 

[Black Hole]

While the last system was a compact closed low, this one is a broad and negatively tilted trough. This will still allow for a rapid spinup, but the very strong vorticity on the right flank will help it quickly accelerate northeast compared to the last system. This will not allow the wrap around area to get as strong until its well to the northeast. Again, not necessarily good or bad, just depends on where you are! 

[ATW]

53 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

So being here in mid Missouri, I need to try to bank in on that second low?

I think we need to bank on a different storm! The trend has been to go north. The last storm kept trending north then came back a little south right before it hit….at least in Missouri. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z RGEM trend over past four runs through Friday evening...

 

[Black Hole]

The initial cold front will either be dry or with a period of rain showers here Thursday evening. It still looks like a brief period of wrap around moisture but as I outlined in the above posts it's poorly developed at this stage. I doubt I will get more than a few hundredths of an inch. However, given that it'll probably be in the low 20s it's reasonable to assume it could add up to an inch or so I think. Hopefully short term trends can get just a bit stronger since I'm still waiting for my first real snow. 

[Money]

RGEM